Let me talk about the reasons for the afternoon diving. There are two main points:
The internal factors are continued in the past few days, and the pressure on the upper 60 days is becoming more and more obvious.The confidence of the bulls began to waver, which is the so-called long-term decline;
The external factor is tomorrow’s Fed meetingAlthough the market generally does not expect to raise interest rates, if people announce interest rate hikes, it will be a big punch for us, and some funds will choose to avoid the limelight.
I used to popularize the Fed’s common sense. This is equivalent to the US central bank, which is responsible for regulating the US basic interest rate. In theory, if the Fed raises interest rates, it will lead to an increase in the interest rate of American companies’ loans, which will affect the economic recovery. Some time ago, the US Federal Reserve’s Fed was This reason.
However, no problem can be analyzed with the mentality of blind people. On the other hand, the Fed’s interest rate hike will lead to the appreciation of the US dollar, and a large amount of overseas funds will flow into the United States, which will partly affect the impact of rising loan interest rates.
The appreciation of the US dollar will have a great impact on other currencies in the world. The most important thing is China. In these years, we have become more and more open, attracting a large amount of overseas funds. Once the US dollar appreciates and the RMB depreciates, these overseas funds will naturally flow from China to the United States. To catch up with China's economy is now at a critical stage of transformation, the withdrawal of foreign capital is very unfavorable to us.
In March of this year, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the renminbi was still around 6.23. The limit level of 6.97 has already appeared in the previous two days. It is only one step away from breaking the 7th. In the half year, the devaluation of the renminbi is 10%, which is equivalent to the people of the whole country eating a daily limit.
Looking at the current trend, the US dollar against the renminbi should only be a matter of time. The central bank has been stiff, mainly because of the face problem. If we leave this factor aside, it is not a bad thing for us to break the 7th in the sweater fight.
There is a common sense that the depreciation of the renminbi is good for our export enterprises, because our goods are denominated in renminbi, and the depreciation of the people is equivalent to the cheapness of our goods, which can partially offset the tariff restrictions imposed by us on us.
The same reason can be placed in the stock market. A-shares are also denominated in renminbi. If the renminbi depreciates, the value of the stock market will fall, which we do not want to see.
In general, the impact of changes in the RMB exchange rate on the national economy is very complicated. Especially for our superpowers, those who see our devaluation of the yuan will be a Salby, a swindler in the financial circle. See you. Have you ever been killed by the doctor when you feel a lot of trouble?
When there is no change in the market, I prefer to talk about some common sense in the financial field. Many people do not know what to do with the stock market. They only cut the stocks. This is not the case. A shares cannot survive independently of all environments. It is very helpful for us to cultivate our own investment horizons.
If you want to know more about the currency field, it is recommended to just read the popular science books. I like the book "Currency Wars". I usually look at the novels. There are too many conspiracy theories. After reading, let you go out. There is no point in the currency to talk more.
The quantitative trend of the broader market turned to emptyIt’s really frustrating. I’ve been vaccinating for the first two days. The bear market needs to be prepared for failure at any time. Tomorrow is the fifth day of the sideways.The market now has two options, either to break through the 60-day line or to shrink back to the 20-day line, and the ups and downs between them are ineffective.
My current strategy is to wait and see where the market is going. I don't want to add a position before giving a clear signal. I lost two checks in the session. There are still two positions, from last Tuesday to today's account. The income has been retreated by about 3%, and it’s really uncomfortable.
It must be said that it is not easy to make stocks in the bear market. It is harder to make money than to eat. Although there is a rich bear market experience before, it is still very bad when you experience the bear market again, just like this La Liga national derby, although it is already done. The preparation for losing, but really lost, or want to smash the street.
Just sauce! See you in debt!