Everyone is looking forward to the bull market. What is the bull market? The most direct professional term is "liquidity," and the popular one is a word. The so-called water rises. There is no tide of funds, how can it be changed to the bull market.
Money is the root of the stock price and the root of the stock market. The stock market without funds is not a strong buffalo but a small snail with a heavy shell.
Far from saying, he said that this wave started in 2015. From the market itself, the main reason is the problem of financing in the stock market. The last wave of bull market is a leveraged cow, relying on the money borrowed from everywhere, and the bull bubble that the financing disk blows up. The financing disk has to be solved, which binds the hoof. This is the first wave of the bull market to bear market - the liquidity crisis. When the financing is clean, almost the first wave will bottom out.
The last wave of bull markets is the bull market for the accumulation of reform dividends, and the bull market for normal funds. And these funds have to be put into the market at a cost, this cost is the interest rate. The picture above is the change of interest rate. It can be found that the rate hike after 2006 is consistent until December 2007.
The benchmark interest rate is the borrowing cost of funds. The increase in interest rates means an increase in the cost of capital. It also represents the contraction of liquidity in monetary policy. This "mad cow" that ran to the end naturally fell.
These are just to tell you that the bull market is a shackle, a fluid bubble, a moderate bubble is a healthy cow, and if there is too much foam, it will become a bragging cow, and it will become a mad cow.
So how much liquidity can form the basis of a bull market. You have to use the past bull market as an example. Fortunately, with the distribution of chips invented by Chen Hao, we can define the basic situation of funds more clearly.
This is the weekly chart of the Shanghai Composite Index. The right side is the distribution of the chips. The data given is the profit of the chip on the August 22, 2014. The profit data is 78.26%. This is the peak of the chip when the bull market starts. basic situation.
What do you mean? It is in this market that 78% of the total holdings in the market are making money, and there is a big bull market where everyone makes money. Someone must earn money before they can have a bull market.
Looking at the big bull market in 2007, if March 2006 was used as the starting point for the bull market, then the profitable disk reached 69.15% and was close to 70%. There have been several bull markets that have had similar data.
Then, this can lead to a result. If you start the big bull market next time, you have to make more than half of the positions to make money, preferably 70% of the people make money, this bull market is coming..
This is a sign that the bull market can come. Then the real bull market is at least 90% of the people, able to make money in the stock market, this is the real cow. It is possible that the people who are still trading now have the taste of the bull market that has been forgotten.
Now, you can calculate, if the A-share market now needs to start the bull market.
Using the Shanghai stock market as an example, the current profitable disk is 6%. If you want to reach the 70% standard, you still need 64% of the chips to make money. The so-called chip is everyone's position.
Today, the turnover of the Shanghai stock market is 128.6 billion, and the turnover rate is 0.48%. This is simple, it is an arithmetic problem, it can be solved in the fourth grade.
It takes 17 trillion yuan to make the Shanghai stock market change, and the deep market is similar to calculate 564.58 billion yuan, which requires more than 23 trillion yuan. Can buy a bull market for A shares.
Where do these funds come from, where can there be 23 trillion, and do the current bull market? This is a headache. Of course, this is said that if you go to the cow now, you probably need so much money.
If there is not so much money, what should I do? Then how many meals, how big the bowl is. Look at the whole amount of liquidity to discount.
And the money can still be paid in installments. As long as the market is going well, the funds outside will find a way to come in.
Then, the law of the stock market will be there. For example, here is just an example, and there is no query related data. Now there are 10 trillion funds available, what should I do? It is also easy to handle, some stocks fall again and again, the overall funding demand will not fall. Especially for a few hundred, even high, people have begun to discount.
It may be time, discounts and discounts, which would have required 20 trillion to get things done, less than 10 trillion can be settled. It may be enough to start with 3-5 trillion funds. It’s ok to make money.
If you don't understand it, you will know it clearly. Now you want the bull market to come up with a 20 trillion plan to buy the bull market of A shares. If not, this is not a double eleven, discount sales, can also sell!
If the A-share bull market comes, it depends on how much money this bull market needs, so that it can be brought back!