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I was completely wrong with the market trend today, but even if I was wrong, I was very happy. The main board broke the 120-day moving average. The 1300 points on the startup station broke the 60-day moving average. The trading volume was enlarged, indicating that the funds were for the post-holiday market. Even this year, even in the next 3-5 years, the market is optimistic.
In fact, I have done a lot of analysis before the festival, and I have pointed out many times that it is a good time to buy stocks and buy China. Let’s go over the factors that affect the market before, let everyone have a future market. Clear cognition.
1. Economic fundamentals. This issue has been said many times. There are three main points that need to be mastered:
Judging from the current economic data, our economic situation is still not optimistic. The important factor here is the exhaustion of the old kinetic energy centered on infrastructure real estate, and the new kinetic energy led by technological innovation has failed to provoke the girders;
From the end of last year to the beginning of this year, our policy side has been releasing liquidity and the policy direction since the new CSRC chairman took office. It can be seen that we are over-regulating from “strict supervision” to “wide supervision”, that is, the leverage ratio will be corresponding. Ascension, in this way, the total amount of money in the society will increase, which will play a key role in stabilizing the economy and stabilizing the market;
Market bullishness and economic fundamentals do not constitute a strong correlation. The bull market is triggered by a sufficiently strong logic. For example, the real estate bull in 2007, the leveraged bull in 2015, and whether 2019 can become a RMB appreciation cow, we will wait and see;
2, the market valuation level, we have said this issue many times, there are two main points:
On the main board side, the financial weights led by banks have taken the lead in stabilizing, which is inseparable from the release of liquidity.real estateThe performance of leading enterprises still maintains high growth, and the logic of real estate “supply-side reform” is taking effect. Therefore, both the valuation and performance of the main board are very stable. I have repeatedly indicated the opportunity of the main board here;
In the case of small and medium-sized enterprises, there are still a large number of stocks in the valuation bubble. With the A-share listing, the delisting system and the closer integration with foreign capital, the valuation premium of the A-share market will definitely be broken. Now, many companies with the same business are listed on A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, and the premiums they enjoy are completely different. The common phenomenon is that companies with higher industry status are far less valuable in the Hong Kong stock market than those listed on A-shares. This kind of irrational phenomenon will definitely change in the future, but on the other hand, there are also some small and beautiful stocks whose investment value is gradually appearing. This is the embodiment of stock picking ability;
On the whole, although there are minefields in the overall market valuation of A-shares, their impact on the market will gradually weaken. The exchange is also optimizing the screening rules for index constituents, which will also weaken the overall market sentiment of junk stocks. Impact.
3. In the international macro environment, ZMMY peace talks are developing in a win-win direction. It is an indisputable fact that global economic growth is slowing down now. Only through more cooperation can we overcome difficulties, and the smooth progress of peace talks also means ZM relations. The bottoming out, everyone wants to see the trend of the turn, so in the future there will be more cooperation that we are looking forward to, which is good for the LG economy;
4. The economic leading indicator, the RMB exchange rate has gradually strengthened since entering the 2019, and has now left the box. This is the most direct manifestation of the international capital's optimistic view of the Chinese economy. The strongening of the RMB exchange rate is the most direct for the stock market. The strongest one is mainly due to the following two points:
China's real estate market is still in a regulatory cycle, the difficulty of real estate speculation has increased sharply, and the possibility of hot money flowing into China into the property market is extremely low;
Whether the A-share market is horizontal or vertical, the valuation advantage is very obvious, and it is the best choice for foreign investment in China and China.
The above is the four logics that we are optimistic about the A-share market becoming the starting point of the bull market in 2019. I have also described the characteristics of this round of bull market before, and it will still be a round of fast cattle. This is the characteristic of Chinese capital and the Chinese market. Participants' characteristics, to create a slow cow market, I personally think it will take decades, when the main participants of the A shares are institutions, and mature institutions.
Ok, today, it’s nothing more than telling everyone that you should pay attention to the stock market. It’s a plume duck prophet. People like me who are in the market like this are still more sensitive to the market than most people. This article is worth it. Everyone collects, these logics can be gradually tested in the future, in addition to remember the end of the text "good-looking", class!
Finally, we attach the industry that is worthy of attention in the middle of the A-share period:
1. Pharmaceutical industry. Concerned about the pharmaceutical stocks that were slain, the low stagflation, small and beautiful, high white horses evaded; 2, food industry. With low stagflation, small and beautiful, high white horses evade;banking; 4, insurance industry. (A detailed explanation refers to the January 19th article "After the 2019 A-share key industry sector medium-term investment logic analysis (full version)")
Afterword: A large number of fans have not yet developed a habit of “good-looking”. If you write well, I hope you can read “Look at the right” in the lower right corner, share in the upper right corner, or make a small reward to encourage! It’s really not easy to stick to the original for a long time. I want to give up many times. Persistence is a belief, and concentration is an attitude!
(Source: Fortune No. 2019-02-11 16:32)[Click to view original]