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See moreBeautiful "50" will lead the market to continue to rise
Essence Securities Zhang Deliang: A-share "Pretty 50" enters valuation premium rise period
At present, the A-share stocks that lasted more than one year are “beautiful 50”, gradually entering the valuation premium period and are supporting the broader market as a whole. This strong trend is expected to continue.
At present, the fundamental factors supporting the stock market's vitality are not some macro data in the short-to-medium term, but rather the general direction of economic development. The development of China’s economy has already stood at a new starting point. Against this background, the direction of stock market investment has been quite clear, and there are generally three directions.
The first is the field of consumer upgrading, with emphasis on brand consumption and pensionInsuranceAnd health services, culture and entertainment. The second is the development of manufacturing to high-end industries. The first is the basic industry, supporting the transformation and upgrading of traditional manufacturing industries, such as electric vehicles (EV), decisively intelligent manufacturing (AI), high-end manufacturing (high-speed rail, nuclear power, aviation). The third is the environmental governance under the ecological civilization. Key areas include environmental protection, urban operations, and specialty towns. Specific to the investment category, focusing on the "pretty 50" and the new blue chip, is a listed company that has consistently won and become an industry leader in the transformation and upgrading of new industries or traditional industries.
The A-share "Fine 50" innovative high echelon remains intact. However, from the perspective of valuation, the leading stocks such as PE, PB, etc. have been under pressure. At present, the dynamic price-earnings ratio of these stocks is 36 times that of Kweichow Moutai, 62 times of Hengrui Pharmaceutical, 19 times of Midea Group, and 39 times of Hikvision.JingdongFang A26 times, SAIC Group 12 times,China Ping An16 times, the valuation has begun to surpass the industry center. In other words, this round of "Pretty 50" prices is different from previous value discovery and value investment, but it is a valuation premium rise. However, valuation premium is not a bad thing for stock market sentiment. The stock price bubble continues to grow, and the more optimistic market sentiment will be. In other words, the future rise will be more and more light and the overall trend will continue to strengthen.
Reflected on the index, the leading SSE 50 Index has now entered the bullish trend running status. In the short term, as long as it does not fall below the 60-day moving average, the strong trend will continue and continue to challenge new targets. The current target is pointing to a 10-year downward pressure. Line, approximately 15% of the current position. The CSI 300, the Shanghai Composite Index and the Small and Medium Capital Index will gradually follow. In terms of trading strategies, we should actively deploy around the “Pretty 50,” and we can select several major areas such as consumption upgrades, mid-to-high-end manufacturing, environmental governance, or resource products, and continue to adhere to the leading stock strategy.
Morgan Stanley Huaxin Fund: A stock rebound window is still open
Morgan StanleyHuaxin Fund recently said that it has entered the disclosure period of the third quarter earnings of listed companies. Historically, most of the sectors that received excess returns in October were driven by earnings (three quarterly reports). Therefore, at present, profitability is an important reference for evaluating excess returns of stocks. From the point of view of the income and profit of industrial enterprises, the business conditions of the entity enterprises have been greatly improved since this year.Morgan Stanley Huaxin FundIt is expected that the increase in earnings will support the A-share index.
Standing at the current point in time, the Morgan Stanley Huaxin Fund stated that it would continue its optimistic view of the end of the A-share market. From a fundamental perspective, the U.S. government expects to introduce a formal tax reform draft before the end of the year, which is expected to stimulate the economy; the domestic economy will maintain a moderate recovery and the overall earnings of the A shares will improve. Looking at the liquidity environment, short-term monetary policy is relatively friendly, and reform will increase market risk appetite. Morgan Stanley Huaxin Fund will increase the excavation of high-quality listed companies, pay more attention to the matching of performance and valuation, and increase the allocation of stagflation, logical support and fundamental improvement.
Look flatMarket will enter equilibrium
Bingo's watch: the market enters a period of equilibrium
At the opening of the conference, all indices of the two cities opened in a red market. Although there were subscriptions for new stocks today, they did not stop the market from opening higher. The market then maintained a modest consolidation mode. The market was in a red-board state for most of the day. Unfortunately, the rise of the late petrochemical dualists led to the dive of the index, and eventually the market ended mixed and ended up closing the crosshairs on the daily line.
As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 9.33 points, the index closed at 3381.37 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 7.41 points, the index closed at 11282.75 points, the GEM fell 8.83 points to close at 1868.16 points, the volume shrank again year-on-year, the total turnover of the two cities 4421 Billion, the flow of funds shows that capital outflows more than inflows today, which requires our investors to be cautious. The
Plate: As of the close, the two cities rose more plates and fell the number of houses, but the overall increase in the plate is not large, yesterday's daily limit, full screen and chip concept to become the leader of the two cities to do more, Chinese medicine, gravity waves and semiconductors and other plates Relatively good, the sub-new opening, resource stocks and ferrous metals are the overall performance is relatively weak, the plate rotation is still relatively fast, which is likely to become a nightmare to chase high investors.
On the disk, the overall performance of the two cities today is in a micro-balanced state. Resource stocks have been adjusted for the second consecutive trading day. The momentum for long and short positions tends to be weak. Market hot spots are very scattered. The new shares are still jumping up and down. Communication concept Faced with a relatively serious loss of funds and a slight contraction in trading volume, it is a high probability event for such a situation to continue to maintain such a balance on Thursday.
From a technical point of view, the index is very fierce around the moving averages. The late diving has prompted the daily closing of the crosshairs. The short-term weak equilibrium trend of the market will continue, and the pressure of the integer mark should not be underestimated.
Looking at the performance of the market today, the trend throughout the day looks booming, but in fact, the difficulty of operation is constantly increasing, and the rebound of the index has not brought about too many profitable effects. This should have a great relationship with stability. Judging from the market, the momentum of the bullishness in the market is mainly concentrated on one point. That is, the policy acts as a starting gun, where it hits, from the concept of beautiful China in the morning to the concept of smart chip, from the concept of land circulation to the change of the port, it can be said that A potentially potentially beneficial concept has been focused on by the funds. For this kind of structural market, it should become the main theme during the meeting. Therefore, everyone must have the ability to predict in advance during the operation. And the courage of the low position to build positions, because we can expect the market will enter a stable equilibrium period in the next week. Although there was a wave of lure diving in the late afternoon, this pattern of weak equilibrium will not be changed.
Look emptyRelief is about to begin, do not take fire in the chest
Today's broader market led by banks and agriculture led the two cities to open higher and lower, the morning's largest market upside was near 3381, and then because the market's upside volume is not enough, the afternoon opening gradually fell, after 2 o'clock, PetroChina It began to pull up and drove the market to break through the highs in the morning. The maximum attack was near 3382. However, on the stock market, the stocks in the two cities fell, and the losses of sub-new stocks, mineral products, paper, steel, scarce resources, warehousing and logistics, and non-ferrous metals declined. In the past, wind erosion control, sapphire, smart TV, concept of retirement, private hospitals, anti-influenza, and health care sectors had come to a halt. There were 25 stocks in the two cities, and three stocks had their daily limit, and the GEM was down.
Famous viewpointLi Jiayi: The stock market is slow, no problem
Source: Oriental Wealth
What will happen to the stock market and commodity futures? In response, Oriental Wealth.com invited the CEO of Shanghai Tuoba School, Li Jiayi, to visit the “Fortune Watch” section and shared his brilliant views.
The following is an interview record:
Oriental Fortune Network:Can you tell us about the current trends and running rhythms of important varieties? What is your opinion?
Li Jiayi: I personally think this is the case, because sometimes the dial is like this, it must be related to the time. Maybe after 10 days and a half months, the market has changed. We are observing personally from the current perspective because Each species has a hobby.
Oriental Wealth Network: You can talk about a longer period, a little better timeliness.
Li Jiayi: For me, it may be part of the stock market. In principle, I think that slow cows should not be too much of a problem. At least, from the perspective of the technical aspects that I have learned, it seems that the entire state of stability is currently maintained, for example. After the long vacation, everyone has a very high expectation, but why is it high and low? It's very simple. There may not be a lot of conditions for him to blow out at the moment, so often when he has a relatively large performance, he will often pull back, but it will not be too excessive, so the stock market may have to There is this psychological preparation, that is to say if you want to have a relatively large, rapid, I think that the stocks are rotating, the board rotation is very fast, this is more difficult, which means that your voyage may have to wait three steps to wait In two steps, this is part of the stock market.
Commodity futures are currently divided. The weak is particularly weak, and the strong even has a new high in the band. This thing may be even colored black on the colored black side. Differentiation, but its differentiation is indeed quite obvious to me, I think it is very obvious, weak and weak, but people are like this, that is, I was not sure when I was weak, and now I have come to a certain extent, I have not dared to ,Don't dare to chase the price and so on. It doesn't matter if you don't enter the market. Don't buck the trend. We don't guess whether it's stocks, or futures, or options. Don't guess or guess. Guess is the big operation. avoid.
Oriental Wealth Network: I have to insert here, our ordinary audience often make this taboo.
Li Jiayi: Yes, this determines the 28 rule is also one of the reasons why I can change this fate, that is why others are earning more compensation and less, I have lost a lot of compensation, earning profits are small profits ,why? Because there are so many things you haven't done in the right direction, guessing is a taboo. Perhaps it will be enough for you to make it nine times, once and for all, so don’t guess through it and follow the trend. Yes, you said that this color of the teacher has come here. You see that the black line is falling so much. I'm going to chase this empty. It's not a way. It doesn't matter. You wait for it to turn, and then remember that you won't buy it. At the end of the day, when you are buying, you have a very different point of view. When you buy it, how do you know when it is bottom?
So you should buy something that overcomes human nature when it rises. The third one I hope to share with you is that in the foreseeable future, the option will definitely be a star product. You say that until the star product is everywhere, you have to work hard until you are a star product. After you graduate, you can already have a kung fu on your body. This time is just for use. I think we share with you from the perspective of Europe and the United States, because I used to spend a decade as an option commodity for large-scale funds. I strongly recommend to you that in the markets and varieties that I operate so much, I think that the option commodity is a financial product that can best break the so-called institutional inequality and general retail inequality. Everyone will work hard to learn if they can Change the fate, the best performance of its product is in the options above, it is just beginning, because although there are 50 ETF options have been more than two years, but it is generally accepted that 2017 should be the so-called option first year, because the product futures began to exit The relevant options are currently only soybean meal and white sugar, but there will be more in the foreseeable future. Variety, even more active such as black lines, this will make people very excited. This thing I think investors should work hard to get to know it now. There is a word to share options products that are easy to understand and difficult to master, that is, fur probably soon you understand.
But if you do it well, if you want to be fine, it is that the theory and reality are the closest in all financial products. In other words, it's simple to say so well. The more you know about stocks, the more you lose, I can say so. why? Because the physical operation of the stock is very different from the theory.
There are too many factors in the entire market to consider, such as the flow of chips, the flow of funds, and so on, so I can say that the more shares you understand, the more you lose. Since futures have the guts of human nature, this thing has to be overcome by skill. However, if it is an option, why do we just call the option against strategy in three sentences? That is, you have worked hard to understand the best. The combination of strategy, in fact, it is the closest to the real thing in theory. In other words, the smarter you are, the more accurate you are, the finer you count, the better your chances won't be disturbed, and the black hands of the so-called market will not be there. , or some force to make this thing twisted, no. So why do we think that this commodity will become the star of the future at this time, and that he can break the twenty-eight rule of the retailer? There is a great chance. The point is whether you want it or not. The main reason is that its threshold is low, but it needs Learning well, but learning to spend money, I think this thing you can buy books to see, there are a lot of information on the Internet, I encourage everyone to be very hard to warm up at this time, because it is too late to start the fire.
Because you haven't prepared yet, chances are reserved for those who are ready, so you are now warming up, waiting for you to be ready, opportunities to come, and people telling you to build heroes. The first is that your premise is to be a little qualified to become a hero. You have to wait for the moment, the time comes, if you are not ready, you are not a hero, so I encourage you to mention that in the various commodities section, perhaps the stock has a good stock, but some of the features just mentioned, I am very optimistic about the futures. I am actually very optimistic about the progress towards internationalization. However, if I use the structure of the general investor in the operation of the entire unequal capital market, I actually think that the options can make everyone better. Let's take a good look and come to appreciate the superiority of this product. I share it here with you and also make a preview to see if the option market will be very domestic in the foreseeable future and will follow the international trend. The options market must be a very dazzling star product.