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Everbright Securities: Hong Kong stocks auto stocks restored to the valuation center level

May 15, 2019 09:26
source: Zhitong Financial Network

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Summary
[China Everbright Securities: Hong Kong stocks auto repairs to the valuation center to save upside space] We believe that the automotive industry is still in the active stage of destocking, the data is weak, but in the second half of the historical average, the probability will enter a new round of industry recovery During the period, the industry's early cycle attributes have continued to increase the proportion of the auto sector in the recovery phase. It is recommended to standardize passenger car segments. A-share car: It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the valuation and repair opportunities of SAIC, Changan Automobile and Weichai Power (02338).

Report summary

Automobile market: April sales of 1.89 million units, -14.6% year-on-year, 19 years cumulative -12.1%

In April, the sales volume of automobiles was 1.98 million, which was -14.6% year-on-year and -21.4%. Among them, passenger cars sold 1.575 million units, -17.7% year-on-year, +22.0% month-on-month; commercial vehicle sales reached 406,000 units, +0.1% year-on-year, -19.0%. From January to April, the cumulative sales volume of automobiles was 8.353 million units, which was -12.1% year-on-year; the cumulative sales volume of passenger vehicles was 6.838 million units, down 14.7% year-on-year; the cumulative sales volume of commercial vehicles was 1.516 million units, +1.5% year-on-year. In April, in the passenger car, the growth rate of micro-customers continued to grow, and the growth rate of other models increased. In commercial vehicles, the micro-card light trucks increased year-on-year, and the three types of medium- and heavy-duty trucks all declined.

At the end of April, the inventory of auto manufacturers was +5.3% from the beginning of the month. Among them, passenger cars are +7.8% from the beginning of the month; commercial vehicle inventory is -3.5% from the beginning of the month.

New energy vehicles: 97,000 vehicles sold in April, +18.1%/-14.8%

In April, domestic new energy vehicle sales were 97,000 units, +18.1% year-on-year, and -14.8% from the previous month. The domestic new energy vehicle production was 102,000 units, up +25.0% year-on-year and -11.9%. Overall, April was the first full month of the 2019 subsidy transition period, and the production and sales volume of new energy vehicles declined. In April, the sales volume of domestic pure electric passenger vehicles was 64,000 units, +15.8% year-on-year and -23.9% month-on-month; the sales volume of plug-in hybrid passenger cars was 25,000 units, up +54.4% year-on-year and +15.4%. Overall, the growth rate of passenger cars in April was higher than that of pure electric passenger cars.

Power battery: The total installed capacity in April was 5.41GWh, +44%/2005+6%

In April, the installed capacity of domestic power batteries was 5.41 Gwh, which was +44% year-on-year and +6% from the previous month. Overall, in April 2019, the installed capacity of new energy passenger cars and buses was +78% and -35%, respectively, and the professional vehicles increased by 215% year-on-year; the installed capacity of ternary batteries, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries and manganese The installed capacity of lithium iron lithium battery was +62%, +3% and -64%, respectively.

Investment Advice:

The market is worried that the car sales growth rate in April will not be further converged on the basis of the growth rate in March. We counted the sales growth rate after the Spring Festival. The sales growth rate in March was stronger than the seasonal average of 8 percentage points, and the sales volume increased in April. The speed is weaker than the seasonal average of 7.7 percentage points. Overall, the wholesale data after the Spring Festival is not significantly weaker than seasonal. We believe that,Automobile industryStill in the stage of active de-stocking, the data is weak, but in the second half of the year, from the historical average, the probability will enter a new round of industry recovery period. The early cycle nature of the industry will continue to increase the proportion of the auto sector in the recovery phase. Passenger car section. A-share car: Suggested continuous attentionSAIC,Changan Automobile,Weichai Power(02338) Valuation repair opportunities. Hong Kong stocks auto: At present, the Hong Kong stock auto sector has been restored to the valuation of the central level, the upside still exists but depends on economic expectations and index changes; given the current fundamentals have not been supported, it is expected that the downside risk exposure will gradually expand (or higher than the upward trend) space). It is recommended to pay attention to the lower PB and greater sales/profit elasticity.Great Wall Motor(02333). In terms of power battery, the subsidy has a large decline in 2019, and it is recommended to pay attention to leading enterprises.Ningde era.

Risk Analysis:

Industry growth is less than expected, macroeconomic factors are disturbing, and new energy vehicle technology update risks.

(Article source: Zhitong Finance Network)

                (Editor: DF064)

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