On November 8, the Hang Seng Index was up 1.31% higher by the external market and reported 26,491 points. However, after the market opened, the market slowed down, the index continued to narrow, and the market was flat; gaming, aviation, automobile and Education and other sectors were among the top losers, and utilities such as gas, electricity and environmental water services were stronger. The Hang Seng Index saw a minimum of 26,141 points in the whole day and the highest was 26,491 points. At the close, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.31% to 26,227 points; the HSCEI rose 0.58% to 10,703 points; the red chip index rose 0.73% to 4,288 points; the market turnover was HK$94.674 billion.
“Three barrels” oil stocks continued to strengthen; at the close, China National Offshore Oil (00883) rose 2.16% to HK$14.16; PetroChina (00857) rose 1.34% to HK$6.05; China Petrochemical (00386) rose 0.74% At HK$6.81.
The performance of technology stocks declined, and the stock price was under pressure. At the close of the trading, AAC Technologies (02018) fell 7% to HK$55.8; Ruisheng announced in the afternoon that in the first three quarters of 2018, the company realized revenue of 13.293 billion yuan, down 4.8% year-on-year. Net profit was 2.752 billion yuan, down 21.2% year-on-year; basic earnings per share was 2.25 yuan. According to the announcement, in the first three quarters of 2018, the global smartphone market continued to be weak, which had a negative impact on the company. Acoustic segment sales increased by 2.0% year-on-year to 6.8 billion yuan; due to the low level of the specification upgrade cycle, sales performance was poor. Limited changes in functionality and design have caused average selling prices to fall and shipments to decline. Sunny Optical Technology (02382) fell 2.33% to HK$73.25.
Regarding the direction of the Hong Kong stock market, market analysts said that the Hang Seng Index has fallen for six months, and historically, the Hang Seng Index has never fallen for seven months; and the current valuation of the HSI is at a historical low. The space for continued decline is limited. The mainland market also frequently has favorable policies to boost market sentiment. Therefore, Hong Kong stocks are expected to rebound in the short term. However, in the medium term, there are still three major risk warnings that have not been completely lifted, and investors need to be cautious.
First of all, the market sentiment turmoil, related industry shocks and changes in the flow of global investment funds may all have an impact on the Hong Kong stock market.
Second, it is the fundamentals of the economy. Since 2015, the United States has raised interest rates eight times. Under the continuous tightening of liquidity, global economic growth has been inevitably affected. In the next few quarters, the global economy and the Chinese economy are facing a certain rate of decline. The risks of the downside of the performance forecast still need to be guarded. In particular, the profit growth rate of the heavy Hong Kong stocks may slow down further.
Third, the global monetary environment is still in a contraction period. Hong Kong stocks are the market dominated by global institutional allocation funds. The allocation of global funds in emerging markets has a great impact on Hong Kong stocks. The United States continues to raise interest rates. In the context of a strong dollar, global funds are returning to the United States. Emerging market crises may spread further, capital outflows, currency depreciation,interest rateClimbing, asset damage, and these are all possible. In addition, the developed markets in Europe and the United States are at historically high levels, and they are also facing the risk of falling adjustments or bringing further negative impacts on the Hong Kong market.
Guoxin Overseas Watch released the Hong Kong stocks' November strategy report, stating that Hong Kong stocks have undergone index adjustment for six consecutive months. The Hang Seng Index has a limited risk of falling sharply during the year. The probability of following the A-share and US stocks rebounded after a rebound. However, due to the lack of time in the US stock market and the decline in real estate trading volume, the risk of falling prices may not appear in the stock market. The market for the two months at the end of the year is still defined as rebound/oscillation rather than reversal. Leading companies with strong, low valuation, good cash flow, and local public utility stocks in Hong Kong.
Haitong’s strategy, Yu Yugen, said that since 2018, the amount of funds under the South has accounted for an average of 11% of the Hong Kong stock market transactions. The linkage between A-shares and Hong Kong stocks has continued to increase. The rebound in A-shares has helped the Hong Kong stocks to recover. The Hang Seng Index has a P/E ratio of 8-13 times in the bottom period and is currently 10 times, which is already at the bottom of history. The signal of the end of the mid-term adjustment of Hong Kong stocks: First, confirm the extent of the double bottoming of earnings, and second, wait for the end of the US interest rate hike. High dividend stocks are a safe haven in the mid-term adjustment process.
GF Securities released its Hong Kong stock investment strategy and believes that Hong Kong stocks should focus on oversold consumer and technology stocks for the following reasons: 1) The “structural policies” since mid-September are mainly focused on reducing taxation, consumption incentives and technological innovation; In the Hong Kong stock market in January this year, the high point of the stock market and the technology sector have been oversold. The market is welcoming a "breathing machine" and is expected to rebound in the short term. The risk of Hong Kong stocks has not been released in the medium term and a relatively cautious strategy has been maintained. In the short term, the “policy of the policy” has actually spurred the pessimism in the Hong Kong stock market. In terms of sector configuration, the flexibility can be appropriately increased in the short term, focusing on the consumption and technology stocks in the previous period, while maintaining the allocation of insurance, Hong Kong local stocks, consumer services, textiles and clothing.
Everbright Securities said that the fact that the Hong Kong stock market is more sensitive to external risks has determined that it cannot share the benefits of domestic policy transfer as fully as the A-share market. The mid-term outlook is still under pressure, which also determines that the rebound in the emotional recovery drive has time and space constraints, while there are still fluctuation risks in the short term. Therefore, at the configuration level, we maintain that there is still considerable pressure on Hong Kong stocks in the medium term, and we are advised to maintain a cautious and safe haven status. At the transaction level, short-term funds are active, making the weight blue-chip and high-beta sectors go too fast, and should avoid excessive chasing.
Ping An FundETFQian Jing, fund manager of the Index Investment Department, said that Hong Kong stocks have the characteristics of resisting decline and have more room for valuation, which is suitable for long-term holding. Qian Jing believes that the entire emerging market has fallen by about 15% this year, while Hong Kong stocks have fallen by about 13%. In addition, Hong Kong stocks are cheaper to sell, and Hong Kong dollars are directly linked to the US dollar. It is recommended to make a long-term layout. In terms of valuation, from the trend of Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, PE and PB are below the historical average, and the PB of the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index is only 1.06 times, which is lower than the historical 1/4 quantile. In addition, Hong Kong stocks have long been known for their high dividend payout ratio. The current stock market is sluggish, and the high dividend rate means that companies have stable cash flow. Qian Jing pointed out that the historical data of the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index indicates that its dividend rate is around 3.43%, which is higher than the long-term.Shanghai and Shenzhen 300The index is similar to the 10-year Treasury yield to maturity, which is good for investors to hold for a long time.
Looking forward to the future, Qian Jing said that he continues to be optimistic about the banking, non-bank financial and chemical sectors. In terms of the banking sector, combined with this year's fiscal policy, the de-leverage adjustment in the first half of the year put pressure on the financial industry. In the second half of the year, the central bank continued to lower the standard. The continuous improvement of the financial environment has positively catalyzed the recovery of bank performance, which is conducive to the long-term development of the banking industry. In terms of non-banking finance, domestic insurance stocks have lower valuations and higher performance growth rates. For the energy sector petrochemical industry, Iran’s crude oil exports plummeted from the supply-demand relationship analysis; while the demand side, considering the EIA, IEA and OPEC data, oil demand may slow down next year, but demand will maintain positive growth, so it is expected highOil priceThe era will last for a long time and the petroleum and petrochemical industry will benefit.
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Hong Kong and US stocks are invested in the Eastern Fortune International Securities, and the operation of the Hong Kong-US market is synchronized.