In the financial industry, which once had double-digit growth, the recent growth rate has slowed down noticeably.
With the “de-leverage” of finance and the implementation of strong regulatory policies, the growth rate of value-added of the financial industry in many places has slowed significantly this year, leading to the financial industry’sGDPThe contribution rate of growth has also dropped significantly.
In the first three quarters of 2018, the added value of the financial industry in Shanghai, Beijing and Shenzhen was 412.208 billion yuan, 380.73 billion yuan, and 228.968 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 5.3%, 7.3%, and 3.9%. Except for Beijing, the growth rate of Shanghai and Shenzhen has fallen sharply compared with previous years.
InsurancePremium fell sharply
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first three quarters of 2018, the added value of the financial industry was 5.23 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.0%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the second quarter.
In terms of specific industries in the financial sector, the slowdown in the growth of the financial sector is mainly related to the sharp fall in the insurance industry.
Generally speaking, in the statistical work of the financial industry, the added value of the financial industry is based on the growth rate of RMB deposit and loan balance, securities transaction amount and premium income, and the actual increase in the added value of the financial industry is converted by the price reduction index. Speed, then convert to increment. Therefore, considering these three basic variables, we can roughly analyze the changes in the added value of the financial industry. However, the industry needs to revise this statistical calibre for many years.
The slowdown in the growth of value added in the financial industry began in the first quarter of this year. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first quarter, the added value of the financial industry increased by 2.9%, mainly due to the sharp fall in the insurance industry, and the premium income in January-February fell by 18.5%.
According to the data of the Banking Regulatory Commission, from January to August 2018, the growth rate of the original premium income of the life insurance business, which accounted for the highest proportion, is still declining. Specifically, the original insurance premium income of life insurance business was 1,538.256 billion yuan, down 9.35% year-on-year; the original insurance premium income of property insurance business, health insurance business and accident insurance business were 710.607 billion yuan, 379.643 billion yuan and 71.451 billion yuan respectively. The growth rate was 11.24%, 18.83%, and 17.98%. In the first half of this year, the original premium income growth rate of life insurance business was -12.15%.
The decline in personal insurance premiums is more pronounced. The main reason is that since 2017, a series of regulatory measures to regulate the healthy development of the insurance industry have been intensively introduced, such as the “Notice on Regulating the Development and Design Behavior of Life Insurance Companies”. The rectification of the insurance and the “additional universal insurance” resulted in a significant decline in the premium income of the bancassurance channel. In addition, measures such as “double-recording” were introduced, and the sales of bancassurance channels were more difficult. Many mainstream insurance companies compressed the bancassurance channels and developed individual insurance channels.
Another factor is that the unilateral downturn in the stock market has led to a decline in trading volume. In September, the average daily trading volume of the Shanghai Stock Exchange was 114.42 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.1% from the previous month. The daily average trading volume of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange was 148 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.9% from the previous month.
At the same time, with the “asset return” and regulatory requirements to accelerate asset placement,bankCredit growth is faster. According to central bank data, RMB loans increased by 13.14 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 1.98 trillion yuan year-on-year. In the first three quarters, RMB deposits increased by 12.01 trillion yuan, an increase of 325.7 billion yuan over the same period last year.
Local growth rate is slowly rising
From the perspective of local conditions, the growth rate of value-added of the financial industry in many places continued to slow down.
In the first three quarters of 2018, the added value of Shanghai's financial industry was 412.208 billion yuan, an increase of 5.3%. In 2017, the added value of Shanghai's financial and insurance finance industry was 533.054 billion yuan, an increase of 11.8% over the previous year.
In the first three quarters of 2018, the added value of Shenzhen's financial industry was 228.968 billion yuan, an increase of 3.9%. However, the slowdown in the growth of Shenzhen's financial industry is traceable. The city's financial industry added value of 305.999 billion yuan in 2017, the growth rate dropped from 15% to 5.7%. The Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of Statistics explained that the growth rate of securities transactions and the balance of domestic and foreign currency loans of financial institutions (including foreign capital) slowed down, but the insurance industry's premium income still maintained a high growth rate, with a growth rate of 24.6%.
The special feature of Shenzhen is that insurance premium growth has slowly recovered, but it is greatly affected by the trading volume of the securities market. From January to September, the Shenzhen insurance market accumulated a total of 90.594 billion yuan of original insurance premium income, an increase of 10.64%. Among them, the insurance company's premium income was 27.935 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.03%, higher than the national 14.35 percentage points. The life insurance company's premium income was 62.659 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.62%, higher than the national 8.10 percentage points.
The exception occurred in Beijing. Beijing's financial industry realized an added value of 380.73 billion yuan, an increase of 7.3%, and the growth rate was 1.3 percentage points higher than the second quarter. In 2017, Beijing's financial industry realized an added value of 463.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7%.
In June this year, the Beijing Financial Work Bureau pointed out that under the background of strong financial supervision, the effect of financial leverage reduction appeared, reflecting a benign change trend, laying the foundation for the 2018 to prevent and resolve financial risks. It is expected that the financial industry will continue in 2018. Will maintain a healthy medium growth rate.
On October 31, the Guangdong Provincial Bureau of Statistics said in the macroeconomic operation analysis that the growth rate of the financial industry's added value has been in a downward trend since the beginning of this year, with an increase of 11.7% in the first quarter; a growth of 7.2% in the second quarter; and a growth of 6.7% in the third quarter. It fell 5.3 percentage points from the same period of the previous year. It is expected that due to the year-on-year growth rate of deposits and loans, premium income and securities transactions of financial institutions, the growth rate of the financial industry will continue to slow down, and the driving force for the growth rate of regional GDP will be weakened.
Slow down "correction"?
The growth rate of the added value of the financial industry slowed down and was once interpreted as “correction”.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from 1979 to 2017, the added value of the financial industry increased by an average of 12.2% per annum, which is 1.7 percentage points higher than the actual annual growth rate of the service industry. The proportion of GDP increased from 2.1% in 1978 to 2017. 7.9%. The balance of local and foreign currency loans increased from 67.3 trillion yuan in 2012 to 126 trillion yuan in 2017, an increase of 86.7%.
In May of this year, Jiang Yuan, deputy director of the Department of Industrial Statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, pointed out that in recent years, high housing prices and excessive financialization have had a large negative impact on the real economy. In the case of the industry’s falling share of GDP, financial andreal estateThe proportion of the industry has risen sharply. In 2015 and 2016, the added value of China's financial industry accounted for 8.4% and 8.3% of GDP, surpassing the majority of developed countries such as the United States and Japan, second only to the financial and shipping industries as the mainstay of the economy. Singapore.
However, some scholars have expressed different opinions. A bank economist bluntly said that simply comparing the financial sector’s share of GDP “may be wrong”. Some studies have pointed out that the added value of China's financial industry accounts for about twice as much as GDP in Japan, Germany, France, Italy and Spain. The problem is that because China's financial industry basically only serves domestically, the developed countries such as the United States and Britain serve the global financing market.
(Article source: 21st Century Business Herald)