From November 12, 2010, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index has dropped from the highest of 3,186.72 points to the lowest of 2,667.29 points last Friday, a decrease of more than 500 points. The stocks also fell generally. There were stocks whose stock price was plunged.
In this situation, what should investors do? This week’s financial weekly report gives investment advice to investors with different positions.
For wet storage investors,2011Since the beginning of the year, the market trend has been sluggish. Small and medium-sized stocks have remained sluggish. Some high-quality individual stocks have been mistakenly killed. Some of the highly flexible cyclical stocks are highly elastic. From a medium to long-term perspective, once the broader market stabilizes, they will all become the best. Investment species; The Spring Festival holiday is approaching, after a series of short-term killings, people's hearts and minds are rising, looking forward to a wave of "red package market", there are funds began to layout holiday concept stocks. There are always some sections that will have outstanding performance in the holiday market. The aggressive investors in the wet storage can get the "red envelopes" by entering and leaving the difference price in a short-term manner.
For those investors who are already quilted and whose positions are heavier, the industry believes that the safety of the low-value varieties is much higher than that of the high-valuation subject matter. Even if the operational errors are tight, you can rest assured that the high-valuation varieties. Every rebound is a good stop loss opportunity.
According to statistics, the biggest drop in this round of decline isGreen Earth(002200), since the fall of November 12, 2010, it has reached 48.62%, becoming the first stock to be traded. Followed byTibet Mining(000762),Hakoko(600095) andCentury Riel(300150) and other stocks, the decline is close to 40%. Among the stocks that have fallen sharply, Green Earth and Hakoko have long been in a downtrend channel.
Judging from the performance of the recent index, the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 2700 points several times, but the gap left in the first trading day of last October was not fully covered, and the Shenzhen Component Index also closed below the year line, indicating that the market The overall center of gravity continues to move downwards.
Although from the current situation, analysts are still not optimistic about the year-end market, but they also said that some stocks already have a "down" out of Jiancang opportunities.
Xu Guangfu, a senior strategist at Xiangcai Securities, told the reporter: “The source of profit opportunities may be two aspects: one is the valuation recovery opportunity of blue chips, especially the second and third tier blue-chips, and the second is the rebound of small- and mid-cap stocks after a sharp decline. opportunity."
Analysts pointed out that after a correction, “waist stocks” may become a rebound leader, and investors can tap oversold rebound opportunities in the weak market. The appearance of waistline shows that the market bubble is gradually decreasing. Even though the market outlook may still fall, the downside has been limited.
However, United Securities reminds investors that small and medium-sized stocks that have already experienced a large decline can be given due attention. If these stocks can shrink to a certain extent, it will be an opportunity for intervention.
The basic conditions for oversold bounce
According to market experience, a rebound is expected to occur if it has the following characteristics: First, the decline in stocks that exceed the oversold stocks is usually more than 30%; if it can fall by 50%, it is better to fall for no reason at all. It is a stock that is irrepressible. Second, there is no resistance platform (that is, long-term fluctuations in the historical lows, recently fell to a new low to form a more recent rebound zone), and there have been no rebounds in recent trading days or on a certain trading day.
After the statistics, the reporter found that since the adjustment of the broader market on November 12 last year to January 24 this year, 99 stocks have fallen by more than 30% during the adjustment process. In this stock drop list, small and medium-sized varieties accounted for the majority of the previous seats. Statistics show that among 99 stocks that have fallen by more than 30%,Small platesThe ratio with the GEM variety reached two-thirds. In the top three of the stocks' drop list, in addition to the Shanghai stock marketIndustrial SecuritiesOutside are small and medium board varieties.
Enteryear 2011After that, the downward trend of individual stocks did not slow down. among them,Cloud power(000903) fell to 30.85%, becoming the largest stocks in the year. In the three-week trading period this year, a total of 1,674 stocks fell in the two cities, with only 322 stocks rising. There were 914 stocks that fell more than 10%, accounting for almost half of the total number.
In the further selection of oversold stocks, it is still necessary to grasp some basic points of attention, preferably small-cap stocks or low-priced stocks with low market value; there is no heavy volume in the midst of the stock price drop and there are signs of main quilt; the recent big fall away from the early stage Finishing the platform, the negative rate is high; the best is the previous round of rising leading stocks or often over-the-top role in the oversold stocks, or is very active in the history of stocks and has the potential to rebound oversold stocks.
Focus on performance growth
Judging from the current situation, the small and medium-sized stocks are undoubtedly the main force of this wave of market slump. It has already had a certain degree of correction, but the logic of operating small-cap stocks should be different from that of 2010.
The reporter also noticed that when some stocks continued to fall, the forecast of the performance of listed companies in 2010 was good audio transmission. Statistics show that among the above 99 companies, 46 companies have announced their performance forecast for the previous year. Of these, 36 listed companies expect their net profit in 2010 to grow by more than 50% year-on-year, accounting for 70% of comparable companies.
Cinda Australia’s small and medium-sized fund manager Zeng Guofu said that due to the relative lack of supply in the previous period, most small and medium-sized stocks had higher valuations and were repeatedly pushed up after the listing due to their good growth. However, now that the annual report is approaching, small and medium-sized stocks will diverge due to performance differences. In particular, after the first quarter results came out, it was basically possible to determine whether the overestimation given in the previous period was reasonable, and with the increase in supply, the scope for selection would be even greater.
"Some small and medium-sized stocks with better growth will reduce their valuations through good performance. At present, the sector is in a vacuum period after the increase is too large and wait for the confirmation of performance." Guo Li Securities Yan Li said that the current small and medium-sized stocks There is a large gap between the valuation and its performance. With the advent of the annual report, the gap will gradually narrow.
Cai Dagui, a security researcher at Ping An Securities, said that for medium and small-cap stocks, those companies with huge growth potential, good performance and reasonable valuation will certainly be favored by investors. Especially in the face of sharp declines, oversold blue chip stocks have ushered in a rare opportunity to intervene. After a moderate correction, some funds have begun to focus on these oversold stocks.
In the selection of the target stocks, the target stocks are not the greater the better, the short-term trend is weaker than the broader market trend of 3 - 3.5 times the short-term stock market rise and the success rate is relatively higher (can be superimposed on the broader market index Stocks). Among them, strong stocks and stocks that hit new lows in recent years are preferred. If the increase in performance of more than 50% is also a necessary indicator for screening oversold stocks, then it can be used as the target of this round of oversold stock options reduced to 24 stocks.
15% new shares to choose from
From a historical point of view, the blooming of stocks is often an important signal for bottoming out in the broader market. Once the market recovers, these stocks will have relatively strong rebound energy.
A batch of new shares fell sharply after the market due to the market downturn. Based on past performance, they will outperform the broad market and even stocks in similar industries. Moreover, a large portion of small-cap stocks areEmerging industryThe current decline will make it more powerful in the market.
Over time, the decline in small-cap breaks in new stocks will gradually narrow and eventually make positive gains. Since 2010, a total of 23 new stocks have been broken on the first day of listing, with an average loss of 4%; after 10 trading days, the average decline narrowed to 0.95%; after 30 trading days, positive gains were achieved, with an average increase of 3.11. %; After 60 trading days, earnings further expanded, with an average increase of 4.56%; on 120 trading days, earnings continued to expand, with an average increase of 13.37%.
In light of the analysis of the market performance of small and medium-sized board and GEM breaks in new stocks since 2010, the reporter found a relatively common phenomenon, that is, the average loss of these new stocks has stabilized and recovered by 15%. Due to the fundamentals of the company, the background of the broader market, and funding preferences, the stocks continued to decline after the breakout of the new shares. The deepest breakGao Le shares(002348),Oak shares(300082), the break rate at the lowest price reached 26%, 25%;Zhongyeda(002441),Fluoride(002407) The break rate at the lowest price was only 4% and 6%. However, most of the new stocks that break the market are listed on the central axis at 15% after the listing price is lower than the issue price.
Observe the trend of breaking new shares, you can also find that the same is broken but there are still "stronger Hengqiang" law, when investing in breaking new shares, beware of new stocks that do not change the weak for some time. For example, the highest score of Gao Le shares,Jiaxin Silk(002404) On the first day of listing, it only fell by more than 1%, but when other stocks rose from an average fall after 30 trading days, they still fell 1.6%, 10%, and fell after 120 trading days. In more than 200 days, the year-on-year declines of 3% and 4% were still achieved. The same listing has been more than 200 daysGuangliandaFluoride,Qi Xiang Tengda(002408), listed on the first day fell 2%, 5%, 7.5%, but 30 trading days, after the latest 60 trading days have risen significantly, and ultimately achieved more than 50% positive income.
Xiake environmental protection: Net profit increased significantly
Xiake Environmental Protection (002015) is a direct beneficiary of Khmer prices. The company is the subject of the largest increase in the elasticity of polyester staple fiber prices in the A shares.
Although Xiake Environmental Protection's stock price has performed poorly, it has fallen continuously in recent days. However, the stock has ushered in good results recently. According to the results report released on January 18, Xiakeke Environmental Protection reported operating income of 1.539 billion yuan during the reporting period, a year-on-year increase of 25.97. %; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 20,919,500 yuan, an increase of 39.76% year-on-year; basic earnings per share was 0.1 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25%.
The company’s announcement stated that during the reporting period, the domestic and international markets were picking up. The company’s production of native non-ferrous polyester fiber increased, and the sales of various products were in good conditions. The company’s performance was steadily rising. The total operating income increased by 25.97% over the same period of last year, which was due to the increase in product operating income during the reporting period. The total operating profit and total profit increased by 82.28% and 56.09% respectively over the same period of the previous year, which was due to the increase in sales of products during the reporting period.
The stock is focused on big funds. Among the top ten shareholders, private equity CITIC Trustee Co., Ltd. - Jiansu 743 new shares bought 3,279,300 shares of this stock. In addition, the two funds, China Insurance Bonus Hybrid Open-end Securities Investment Fund and SME Board Trading Open-ended Index Fund Holds 1.183 million shares and 128.48 million shares respectively.
At the same time, the stock is concerned about cattle. Among the top ten shareholders of the stock, Wu Shengqun bought a new stock of 9.191 million shares. The same name appeared in the 2009 mid-term report.Sichuan Shuangma(000935) andZhongjie shares(002021). In addition, Li Wei holds 145 million shares of Xiake environmental protection, the same name appeared in the 2009 annual reportSuzhou Fugu(002079).
Straits shares: Good performance expectations
Straits shares (002320) is the leader of Nanhai passenger transport. The company is mainly engaged in Nanhai Passenger Rolling Services with Hainan Province as the center, and it is the backbone shipping company undertaking the task of passengers and cargo in and out of the island in Hainan Province. Its market share exceeds 35% and it has consistently ranked first in the South China Sea passenger roll transportation market.
Straits has recently announced its performance report. It is expected that in 2010, it will realize operating income of 600 million yuan, an increase of 24.79% year-on-year, and a net profit of 188 million yuan attributable to the parent company, an increase of 37.01% year-on-year, and an earnings per share of 0.92 yuan.
With the economic development of Hainan Province and the advancement of international tourism island construction, the number of people and materials entering and leaving Hainan has grown rapidly, and the Hainan passenger roll transportation market is facing a favorable development environment. After the company eliminated two old ships at the end of 2009, it only added one new ship last year, and there has been no significant growth in transport capacity, which has slowed the growth rate of the company's transport volume to less than the entire market.
With the launch of the fund-raising project and the launch of the two newbuildings of the joint venture Straits Express Line Shipping Co., Ltd., CSCIC expects that the combined capacity of the company will increase by more than 10% in the next two years.
The stock is focused on big funds. The top ten shareholders of tradable shares of the stock held a 25.47% float. Among the top ten shareholders, there are 7 funds and 2 insurance wealth management products. In the third quarter of last year, the fund held a total of 725.53 million shares, accounting for 14.13% of the total outstanding shares.
At the same time, the stock has been injected by cattle. The name of Liu Shiqiang, the largest shareholder of the outstanding shares of the stock, appears in a number of stocks. Liu Shiqiang holds 4.704 million shares in the Straits.Tai An TangThe name of Liu Shiqiang appeared in the three quarterly reports of (002433).Tai Chi sharesAmong the top ten shareholders of (002368) and Guanglianda (002410) are Liu Shiqiang's name.
Sinoma Technology: Domestic Composite Materials Industry Leader
Sinoma Technology (002080) is a leader in the composite materials industry. The company's domestic market share of high-strength glass fiber and its products reaches more than 90%. It is a technical equipment R&D center for China's special fiber composite materials industry, and also the largest special fiber composite material in China's defense industry. base.
The 2010 third quarter report shows that 2010 net profit is expected to increase by 50% to 80% (2009 net profit of 108 million yuan), and the 2010 results are mainly due to the expansion of sales of wind power blades. During the reporting period, operating income and operating costs increased by 94.85% and 93.58% year-on-year; operating profits, total profits, and net profits increased by 149.06%, 132.34%, and 142.43% respectively; the growth of the above indicators was mainly due to the year-on-year increase in sales volume of wind power blade industry. Caused.
At the same time, the company was in November 2009 andGoldwind TechnologyThe 1,456 million yuan contract for the supply of wind power blades was fulfilled at the end of the third quarter of 2010, and was only 534 million yuan. According to the contract, the supply period was from 2009 to 2010, and the contract revenue in the fourth quarter was 922 million yuan.
At the same timeHuarui Wind PowerThe contract signed by Science and Technology Co., Ltd. was 880 million yuan, and the delivery period was from 2007 to 2011. As of the end of last year, there were still 124 million yuan that were not fulfilled, which would contribute 24.8 million yuan in the fourth quarter of 2010. If the contract is carried out according to regulations, these two orders guarantee the company's income of 947 million yuan.
The stock is focused on big funds. According to the quarterly report of the stock market, the top ten shareholders of tradable shares control 70.68% of the floats, of which seven funds have settled. The total fund holdings reached 224.701 million shares.
Guangdong Media: Reorganization raises fundamentals
As a media predator, Guangdong Media (002181) has recently gained reorganization. Guangdong Media will issue shares to Guangzhou Media Holdings Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of Guangzhou Daily, and purchase 100% equity of Guangzhou Daily Newspaper Operation Co., Ltd., Guangzhou Dayang Media Co., Ltd. and Guangzhou Daily New Media Co., Ltd. to achieve Guangzhou The listing of high-quality newspaper business assets controlled by the newspaper company and its subsidiaries.
The assets injected this time are mainly centered on the operation of Guangzhou Daily. The operating income of Guangzhou Daily reached 1.3 billion yuan, of which the advertising revenue was 900 million yuan, ranking top in local print media advertising revenue, and the profitability of assets. Stronger, the net rate reached 20%. According to the net profit of 267 million yuan realized in 2011 when assets were acquired, the asset evaluation price was 3.832 billion yuan.
The Great Wall Securities Research Report believes that this reorganization of assets can not only resolve related party transactions, but also can leverage the influence of the "Guangzhou Daily"'s print media to accelerate the reform of the newspaper industry. It is expected that the reorganization will be implemented in 2011.
The stock is focused on big funds. The third quarterly report last year showed that the top ten shareholders of tradable shares held 12.97% tradable shares, including 1 fund, 1 private equity fund, 1 insurance wealth management product, and 1 brokerage wealth management product.
At the same time, the stock was focused on by cattle. Wang Zhuohuai, a top ten shareholder, held 1.6673 million shares. The same name appeared in 2009.Kodak Electromechanical(600499) Last year, in 2009, "Wang Zhuohuai" held more than 4.8 million shares of Keda Electromechanical, from the mid-2009 report to the 2009 annual report. During the period, Kodak Electrical and Mechanical Services rose from 11 yuan to 21 yuan, once over 22 yuan, and the stock price was almost Doubled.
Vosges shares: Stripping bad assets
The main business of Vosges International (002083) is the production and sale of napkins and decorative fabrics. Currently, it is the largest in China and the largest in export value. It specializes in the production and sales of high-grade napkins and decorative fabrics. Home textile manufacturers.
Recently, the company sold its loss-making subsidiaries. According to an announcement on January 20, 2011, the board of directors of the company agreed that the wholly-owned subsidiary, Gaomi Oasis Chemicals Co., Ltd., will sell its entire production and operating assets. The planned sale price of the assets is approximately RMB 165 million. As of December 31, 2010, the total assets of Oasis Chemical Industry was 148,875,100 yuan, the total liabilities was 1205.216 million yuan, and the net profit loss was 5.5013 million yuan.
The company expects the proceeds from this transaction to be approximately 30 million yuan, which will be included in the first quarter of 2011. After the transaction is completed, the company will no longer have the operating income of the chemical pesticides business, and it is expected to reduce operating revenue by 130 to 200 million yuan annually. As the company's chemical business is basically a loss in recent years, this transaction will improve the company's future financial status and operating results.
The stock is focused on big funds. The third quarterly report last year showed that there are several institutions among the top ten shareholders of the stock, of which Haitong-BOC-Fortis Bank holds 316.74 million shares. In addition, the stock was held by the national team. The National Social Security Fund combined 109.98 million shares in the stock. In addition, among the top ten shareholders of the stock, there are 2 private equity, 1 securities company and 2 public funds.
At the same time, the stock is injected with bulls. Among the top ten shareholders, Li Zhenrong holds 1.8848 million shares, and the same name appeared in 2010.East Sunny AluminumIn the quarterly report of (600673), at the time, "Li Zhenrong" held 2,217,900 shareholders of Sunny Aluminum, and the stock rose from 8 yuan to 12 yuan in the second quarter, an increase of 50%.
Shunxin Agriculture: Second-line liquor leader
Shunxin Agriculture (000860) is the second-tier liquor leader. The main asset of the company's liquor business is the Niulanshan Winery, which has a production capacity of approximately 50,000 tons. The production of the fragrance-based Erguotou series of wines and the Luzhou-based series of 100-year-old liquors, which are mainly fragrant, are sold well in the capital.
CIC Securities believes that the company’s success in the past few years has been attributed to its superior quality, branded Beijing brand, and deep farming channels. Niulanshan liquor has a lower degree and a softer taste compared with the main competition star, and since 2005, the company has developed a “Shunxin Happy Day Tour to find the source of Erguotou” suburban tour activities. Ten thousand visits to the winery, watching the winemaking process, “opening operations” made its good quality characteristics pass through the consumers’ word of mouth and built the hearts of consumers; the company also passed Beijing Chaopi (the company’s shareholding 4.17%), Beijing Sugar, Xinjin Lutong, Creative Church and other four major distributors have in-depth cooperation, intensive distribution, and pressing rivals Red Star at the terminal.
The stock is focused on big funds. Judging from the top ten shareholders of tradable shares, the stock has a national team figure, and the national social security fund's one-hundred and one-tenth portfolio newly bought 111.416 million shares of Shunxin Agriculture in the third quarter of 2010. In addition, the National Social Security Fund's 6004 portfolio also bought new shares of 6,168,500 shares. The top ten shareholders of the stock have mastered the 31.48% liquidity of Shunxin Agriculture, including four public funds and two insurance wealth management products.
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