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Nuggets 6 oversold stocks

January 28, 2011 14:00
source: Money Weekly
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Starting from November 12, 2010, the Shanghai Composite Index has dropped from the highest of 3186.72 points to the lowest of 2667.29 points of last Friday in two months, a decrease of more than 500 points. The stocks also appeared generally declined, appeared on the market share price was cut.

In this case, investors should carry out what kind of operation? This issue of financial weekly for investors in different positions to give investment advice.

For wet storage investors,2011Since the beginning of the year, the market has been in a downturn. Small and medium-cap stocks are still sluggish. Some high-quality stocks have been wrongly killed. Some of the high-performing and cyclical stocks are highly flexible. From a medium to long-term perspective, once the market stabilizes, they will all be the best Investment varieties; Spring Festival holidays are approaching, in a short period of time after a series of sell-offs, the people up, looking forward to a wave of "red envelopes", there are funds to start the layout of the concept stocks holiday. There are always some plates in the holiday market will have outstanding performance, wet storage aggressive investors can short-term access to win the difference way, the "red envelope" to get the hand.

For those who have been quarrel heavier positions in the industry, the industry believes that the underevaluation of varieties of safety is much higher than the high value of the subject varieties, even if the operation is stuck, you can rest assured that the high valuation of varieties, Each rebound is a better stop loss opportunity.

"Cut" individual stocks

According to statistics, in this round of decline, the biggest decline isGreen earth(002200), a drop of 48.62% since Nov. 12, 2010, making it the first stock to be cut. Followed by yesTibet Mining(000762),Kazakhstan high-tech(600095) andCentury Riel(300150) and other stocks, the decline is close to 40%. Decline in the larger stocks, green earth and Kazakhstan Hi-Tech already in decline channel.

From the recent index performance, the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 2700 points on many occasions, but the first trading day in October last year, the gap left behind, not fully covered, and Shenzhen into the finger also received below the line, showing the market The overall center of gravity is still constantly moving down.

Although from the current situation, analysts are still not optimistic about the market for years ago, but they also said that some stocks already have "fell" out of the opportunity to Jiancang.

Xiangcai Securities senior strategist Xu Guangfu told reporters: "The source of profit opportunities may be two aspects: First, blue chips, especially the second and third tier blue-chip sector valuation repair opportunities, the second is the small and medium-sized market stocks fell sharply after the phased rebound opportunity."

Analysts pointed out that "cut stocks" after a callback, is expected to become the vanguard of rebound, investors can tap in the weak market oversold bounce opportunities. The cut appears to show that the market bubble is gradually reducing, even if the market outlook may decline, but the downside has been more limited.

But United Securities warns investors that due attention may be given to those small-cap stocks that have already suffered declines, and that the timing of intervention may be the case for these stocks if their volume can shrink to some extent.

Oversold bounce the basic conditions

According to market experience, all the following characteristics can be considered as a rebound: The first is that the decline in oversold stocks will usually be above 30% during the year, but it is even better if the decline should be 50%. It is better for those stocks to decline without any reason Is immeasurably empty stocks. Secondly, there is no formation of a resistance platform (that is, a long-term turmoil in the historical low and recently broke below the record low to create a rebound zone) and there has been no rebound in the last few trading days or on a certain trading day.

Statistics, the reporters found that from November 12 last year, the broader market adjusted since January 24 this year, the adjustment process, there are already 99 stocks fell more than 30%. Decline in the list of stocks, small cap stocks occupy the top majority of seats. Statistics show that in 99 stocks fell more than 30% of the stocks,Small boardAnd GEM accounted for two-thirds of varieties. In the top three stocks decline in stocks, in addition to the Shanghai stock marketIndustrial SecuritiesOutside are small plate varieties.

Enteryear 2011After the decline in stocks did not slow down. among them,Cloud power(000903) fell to 30.85%, becoming the largest decline during the year stocks. During the trading week of more than three weeks this year, a total of 1,674 stocks fell in the two cities with 322 rising stocks. There were 914 stocks with a total decrease of more than 10%, accounting for almost half of the total.

In the further selection of oversold stocks, or should grasp some of the basic points of attention, preferably small cap stocks or the circulation of small market capitalization stocks; in the share price decline on the way and did not have the burden of the main quests; recent decline and away from the early Finishing platform, the negative deviation rate is large; the best or the last round of rising leading stocks or often play a leading role in the sector oversold stocks, or historical stocks are extremely active and have oversold stocks rebound potential.

Focus on performance growth

Judging from the current situation, small and medium-sized stocks are undoubtedly the main force in this wave of market sell-offs, and they already have a certain rate of correction. However, the logic of small-cap stocks in operation should be different from 2010.

Reporter also noted that when some stocks appear to sell into the continuous occasion of the occasion, the performance of listed companies in 2010 is a good news. Statistics show that among the above 99 companies, 46 companies have released last year's performance notice. Of these, 36 listed companies expect net profit in 2010 to grow by more than 50% YoY, accounting for 70% of the comparable companies.

Cinda Oz in the small cap fund manager Zeng Guofu said that due to the relative lack of supply early, most small cap stocks have higher valuations, and because of its good growth after the listing was pushed up again and again. However, when the annual report is approaching, small-cap stocks will split due to differences in performance. Especially in the first quarter results come out, the basic can determine the overevaluation given earlier is reasonable, coupled with the increase in supply, the choice will be greater.

"Some small and medium-sized stocks with better growth will reduce their valuation through their good performance. Currently, the sector is in a vacuum waiting for confirmation of performance." Yan Li, Guoxin Securities, said that at present, small and mid cap stocks There is a big gap between the valuation and its performance, with the advent of quarterly reports, this gap will gradually narrow.

Cai Dagui, a researcher at Ping An Securities Strategy Group, said that for small and medium market capitalization stocks, those with great growth potential, good performance and reasonable valuation will certainly be favored by investors. Especially in the face of a substantial decline, oversold blue chip stocks usher in a rare opportunity to intervene. After a modest pullback, some funds have started to look at these oversold stocks.

In the selection of the subject of the target stocks, the choice of the target unit is not the bigger decline the better, relatively speaking, the short-term trend is weaker than the market trend 3-3.5 times the stock short-term rise space and the success rate is relatively higher (the market index can be superimposed on Individual stocks). Among them, the strong Zhuanggu and hit a new low in recent years, the preferred stock. If the performance increase of more than 50% of the oversize stocks as an indicator of the necessary screening, then, can be used as the target of the current round of oversold stocks reduced to 24 stocks.

15% decline in new shares to choose from

From a historical point of view, it is often an important signal that the bottom of the broader market is broken. And once the market picks up, such stocks will have a stronger rebound energy.

After the IPO, a batch of new shares plummeted due to the market downturn. According to past performance, they would outperform the broad market and even stocks of similar industries in the future. Moreover, a large part of small cap stocks belongEmerging industry, The current decline will make it a more powerful outbreak in the market outlook.

Over time, the drop in small caps break new shares will gradually narrow and eventually achieve positive returns. Since 2010, a total of 23 small and medium board new shares broke down on the first day of listing, with an average decrease of 4%. After 10 trading days, the average decline narrowed to 0.95%. After 30 trading days, positive returns were achieved, with an average increase of 3.11 %; After 60 trading days, the proceeds further expanded, with an average increase of 4.56%. On the 120th trading day, the revenue continued to expand with an average increase of 13.37%.

For the 2010 SME board, the GEM broke new shares of the market performance analysis, the reporter found a more common phenomenon, that is, the steady decline of these new shares rebounded 15%. Due to the company's fundamentals, the broader market background, capital preference and other reasons, the breakup of new shares after the decline in the magnitude of larger differences. Broken the most deepHappy shares(002348),Oak shares(300082), the lowest break when the rate of 26%, 25%; declining trend, such asPublic industry up(002441),More fluoride(002407) break when the lowest price was only 4%, 6%. However, most of the broken new shares, the lowest price after listing listing price gap of 15% as the axis.

Observed the trend of breaking new shares, you can also find the same break but there is still "strong constant strong" rule, invest in breaking new shares, we must guard against the weak for some time not to change the new shares. Such as the deepest break Gaole shares,Jiaxin silk(002404). The shares dropped just over 1% on the first day of listing. However, they fell 1.6%, 10% and fell after 120 trading days when the average share price of other shares broke down after 30 trading days. As a result, More than 200 days, the year still reached 3%, 4% decline. The same is the market has more than 200 daysBroadband, More fluoride,Qi Xiang Tengda(002408). The shares dropped 2%, 5% and 7.5% on the first day of listing. However, after 30 trading days, the latest 60 trading days have obviously risen and finally a positive yield of more than 50%.

【Stock dotting

  Xia off green: Net profit increased significantly

Xia off green (002015) is the direct beneficiary of the Khmer price. A-share companies in the polyester staple fiber price elasticity of the largest increase in the subject.

Although the performance of Kaspersky Environmental Protection Co., Ltd. has been falling continuously recently, but the stock has ushered in the recent positive results. According to the performance announcement released on January 18, the company achieved operating income of 1.539 billion Yuan during the reporting period, an increase of 25.97% %; Net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies 20.9935 million yuan, an increase of 39.76%; basic earnings per share 0.1 yuan, an increase of 25%.

Company announcement said that during the reporting period, the domestic and international markets pick up, the company's native colored polyester fiber production increased, sales of various types of products in good condition, the company's performance steadily. Total operating income increased 25.97% over the same period of last year, which was caused by the increase of operating income of products in the report period. Total operating profit and total profit increased by 82.28% and 56.09% respectively compared with the same period of last year, which was caused by the increase of product sales in the report period.

The stock was a big concern. Among the top ten shareholders, private placement CITIC Trust Co., Ltd. - Jiansu 743 newly purchased shares of 327.93 million shares. In addition, the two funds Huaxia dividend mixed open-ended securities investment funds and the SME board of exchange-traded open-end index funds Respectively holding 118.38 million shares and 128.48 million shares.

At the same time, the stock has attention. The top ten shareholders of the stock, Wu Shengqun new shares bought 91.91 million shares, the same name appears in the 2009 mid-year reportSichuan double horse(000935) andCzech Republic shares(002021). In addition, Li Wei holds 145 million shares Xiake environmental protection, the same name appears in the 2009 annual reportSuzhou solid technetium(002079).

  Strait shares: Good performance expectations

Strait shares (002320) is the South China Sea passenger transport leader. The company is mainly engaged in the South China Sea passenger transport business with Hainan as the center. It is the backbone shipping company that undertakes the task of entering and exiting the island of passenger and cargo in Hainan Province with a market share of more than 35%. It has been ranked first in the passenger transport market of South China Sea in China.

Strait shares recently released a performance newsletter, is expected to achieve operating income of 600 million yuan in 2010, an increase of 24.79%, net profit attributable to parent company 188 million, an increase of 37.01%, earnings per share of 0.92 yuan.

With the economic development in Hainan Province and the promotion of international tourism island construction, the rapid growth of personnel and materials entering and leaving Hainan, Hainan passenger rolling transportation market is facing a good development environment. However, the Company only added one new vessel last year after the two old vessels were phased out at the end of 2009, with no significant increase in transportation capacity. The growth rate of the Company's transportation volume is below the market level.

With the launch of the raised funds and the commissioning of two newbuildings by the Channel Express Co., Ltd., a joint venture company, CSCEC expects the company's combined capacity to grow by more than 10% this year and next.

The stock was a big concern. The top ten tradable shareholders held 25.47% of the float shares. Among the top ten shareholders, there are 7 funds and 2 insurance wealth management products. The fund held a total of 7,255,300 shares in the third quarter of last year, accounting for 14.13% of the total outstanding shares.

At the same time, the stock has been bullied into the stock, the largest shareholder Liu Shijiang outstanding shares of the name appears in several stocks, Liu Shijiang held 470.04 million strait shares, andToo peaceful church(002433) appeared in the three quarterly Liu Shiqiang name, 2010 mid-year reportTai Chi shares(002 368), UnionPay (002410), the top ten shareholders also have Liu Shiqiang name.

  Sinoma Science and Technology: The leading domestic composite materials industry

Sinoma (002080) is a leader in the composite materials industry. Its market share of high-strength glass fiber and its products reaches over 90% in China. It is a R & D center for technical equipment of China's special fiber composite materials industry and also the largest special fiber composite material developed by China's defense industry base.

Three Quarterly Bulletin 2010 shows that net profit in 2010 is expected to grow by 50% ~ 80% (net profit of 108 million yuan in 2009). The increase in 2010 results over the previous year was mainly due to the expansion of sales of wind power blades. During the reporting period, operating income and operating costs increased by 94.85% and 93.58% respectively compared with the corresponding period of last year; operating profit, total profit and net profit increased by 149.06%, 132.34% and 142.43% respectively over the same period of previous year; the above indicators were mainly due to the year- Due.

Meanwhile, the company in November 2009 andGold Wind TechnologyThe signing contract for the supply of 1.456 billion yuan of wind power blades will reach only 534 million yuan by the end of the third quarter of 2010. According to the contract, the supply period is from 2009 to 2010, and the contract revenue in the fourth quarter is 922 million yuan.

At the same time the company andSinovelTechnology Co., Ltd. signed a contract of 880 million yuan, the supply period of 2007 to 2011, as of the third quarter of last year, there are still 124 million failed to perform, which will contribute to the fourth quarter of 2010 revenue 24.8 million yuan. If the contract is implemented according to the regulations, the two orders will guarantee the company's income of 947 million yuan.

The stock was a big concern. According to the stock three quarterly shows, the top ten tradable shareholders control 70.68% of the float plate, of which seven funds settled in them. The total fund holdings reached 22.47.01 million shares.

  Guangdong media: Restructuring to enhance the fundamentals

As a media predators, Guangdong Media (002,181) recently received the reorganization of the good. Guangdong Media will issue shares to Guangzhou Media Holdings Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of Guangzhou Daily, and acquire 100% equity interests in Guangzhou Daily Newspaper Management Co., Ltd., Guangzhou Ocean Media Co., Ltd. and Guangzhou Daily New Media Co., Ltd. in order to realize Guangzhou Daily newspaper and its affiliated companies controlled the quality of newspapers and commercial assets listed.

The injection of assets mainly around the "Guangzhou Daily" to carry out the operation, "Guangzhou Daily" operating income reached 1.3 billion yuan, of which advertising revenue of 900 million yuan, ranking top local print media advertising revenue, asset profitability Strong, net profit margin reached 20%. According to the acquired assets of 267 million yuan in 2011 net profit calculation, asset valuation price is 38.32 billion yuan.

Great Wall Securities research report believes that the asset restructuring will not only solve the related party transactions, but also with the help of "Guangzhou Daily" print media influence to speed up the reform of the newspaper industry, the restructuring is expected to be implemented in 2011.

The stock was a big concern. Three quarterly reports last year showed that the top ten tradable shareholders held 12.97% of outstanding shares, of which 1 fund, 1 private equity fund, 1 insurance wealth management product and 1 brokerage wealth management product.

At the same time the stock was attention by Niu San, Wang Zhuohuai held among its top ten shareholders 1,667,300 shares, the same name appears in 2009Keda Electrical(600,499), in 2009, "Wang Zhuochuai" holds more than 480 million shares of Keda Electrical, from 2009 to report 2009 annual report, during which Keda Electrical rose from 11 yuan to 21 yuan, once more than 22 yuan, the price almost Double

  Vosges shares: Stripping Bad Assets

Vosges shares (002,083) is the main business of the production and sale of towels by the series of products and Zhuang Shibu series of products, is currently China's largest and most export amount specializing in high-end towel series, Zhuang Shibu series production and sales of modernization Home textile manufacturers.

Recently, the company will sell its loss-making subsidiary. January 20, 2011 announcement showed that the company's board of directors agreed to Gaomi Oasis Chemical Co., Ltd., a wholly owned subsidiary of the sale of its production and operating assets as a whole, the part of the assets to be sold for about 165 million. As of December 31, 2010, the total assets of Oasis Chemical Engineering amounted to 145.8751 million yuan, total liabilities of 120.5216 million yuan and net loss of 5.51 million yuan.

The company expects to receive about 30 million yuan of this transaction revenue, will be included in the first quarter of 2011 results. After the transaction is completed, the Company will no longer own the operating income of the chemical pesticides business and it is estimated that the operating income will be reduced by 130 million to 200 million yuan annually. As the Company's chemical business has basically lost money in recent years, the transaction will improve the company's future financial position and operating results.

The stock was a big concern. Last year, three quarterly shows that the top ten shareholders in the stock there are many institutions, including Haitong - Bank of China - Fortis Bank holds 316.74 million shares of the stock. In addition the unit was held by the national team, the National Social Security Fund 109 portfolio held 404.98 million shares. In addition, out of the top ten shareholders of the unit, there are two private equity firms, one securities firm and two public funds.

At the same time the unit has been injected into the cattle, the top ten shareholders, Li Zhenrong holds 188.48 million shares, while the same name appears in 2010East Sunshine Aluminum(600673) a quarterly report, at that time, "Li Zhenrong" holds 220.79 million shares of Sunshine Aluminum, while the stock rose from 8 yuan in the second quarter to 12 yuan, or 50%.

  Shunxin agriculture: Second-tier white wine faucet

Shunxin Agriculture (000,860) is the leader of second-tier liquor. The main assets of the Company's liquor business are Niulan Mountain Winery with a production capacity of about 50,000 tons. The fragrance-producing Erguotou series of liquor and Luzhou-style Niulanshan series of liquor mainly based on Luzhou-flavor are sold well to the capital.

CIC Securities believes that the success of the company over the past few years is the three elements of quality dominate the business card for the Beijing business, deep plowing channels. Niulanshan liquor compared with the main competition red star, the lower the degree, the more subdued taste, and since 2005, the company developed "Shun Shun happy day trip, find the source of Erguotou" suburban activities, a total of 100 Million visitors visited the winery, watching the brewing process, "open operations" so that its good character through word of mouth consumers, rooted in the hearts of consumers; the company also through the DPRK and Beijing (4.17% stake in the company), Beijing Sugar, Xin Jin Lu Tong, Creative Hall and other four major distributors in-depth cooperation, intensive distribution, in the terminal pressure opponents Red Star.

The stock was a big concern. The top ten tradable shareholders, the stock national team figure, the National Social Security Fund 110 Portfolio in the third quarter of 2010, the new BUY 11,141,600 shares of Shun Xin Agriculture. In addition, the national social security fund 604 Portfolio also bought 6,168,500 shares of the stock. The top ten shareholders of the stock held a circulation of 31.48% of Shunxin Agriculture, of which four raised funds and two insurance wealth management products.

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