At the end of the year, Heze started the first shot of the national property market, and then Guangzhou, Zhuhai, Qingdao and other cities have followed suit to adjust the property market regulation policy. Many analysts expect that the nationwide property market loosening policy will come, 2019 yearHouse priceWill enter a new round of rising cycle.
Then,Just relying on the loosening of local government policies can really drive a new round of housing price rise cycles?The answer to this question may be found in the loose cycle of the previous three rounds of the property market. Please see the analysis below for details.
Local and central regulation shows a "slow and stable" situation
First of all, judging from the local and central property market regulation policies, the two presented a "slow and stable" situation. In the past month, the local government's policies for loosening the property market mainly include:
On December 18, 2018, Heze City issued "Strengtheningreal estateThe Notice of Regulation and Control Work, which started the first shot of the loosening of the national property market, canceled the “restricted sale” policy of “new commercial housing and second-hand housing forbidden transactions within two years”.
On December 20, 2018, the “Opinions on Improving the Sales Management of Commercial Service Real Estate Projects” issued by the Guangzhou Municipal Construction and Construction Committee pointed out that the real estate projects that were sold on March 30, 2017 were no longer restricted for sales of commercial property. The object, the individual purchaser service property can be transferred again after obtaining the real estate certificate for 2 years; on December 24 of the same year, Guangzhou fine-tunes the housing accumulation fund withdrawal policy, allowing the surrounding cities in Guangzhou (Foshan, Qingyuan, Zhongshan, Dongguan, Huizhou, Shaoguan) The purchase of housing from different places to withdraw the balance of the provident fund, the policy relaxation trend is looming.
On December 26, 2018, the Zhuhai Municipal Housing and Construction Bureau issued a notice to adjust the "double limit order". Non-Zhuhai residents of the household registration purchase houses, according to individual conditions, have been from the previous needs for 5 consecutive years.Social securityInstead, you only have to pay for one month, three months, and one year.
On January 3, 2019, the Qingdao Municipal Housing Authority issued a notice to cancel the policy of buying houses and swaying. Qingdao has also become the first city in this round of regulation to cancel the swaying policy.
It is foreseeable that more cities will join the loosening of the property market in 2019, which is in line with the policy spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference “Because of the city's policy, classification guidance, and taming the main responsibility of the city government”.
However, from the perspective of the central policy and the national scope, the Central Economic Work Conference has continued to reaffirm that the regulation and control policy of “staying in housing and not speculating” remains unchanged, and there is little possibility of relaxation at the central level.
In addition, as the main responsible department of real estate regulation and control, the annual working conference of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has three aspects worthy of attention regarding the real estate regulation and control policy in 2019:
First, "targeting steady price stability and stable prices";
Second, "continue to maintain the continuity of regulatory policies, strengthen the two-way regulation of supply and demand in the real estate market, improve the housing supply structure, support reasonable self-occupation needs, resolutely curb speculative real estate, strengthen public opinion guidance and expected management, and ensure market stability";
The third is to "adhere to the city's policy, classified guidance, consolidate the city's main responsibility, strengthen market monitoring and evaluation, and effectively implement the responsibility of stabilizing prices and stabilizing housing prices."
This shows thatThe central control policy is based on "stable"The "song" of the local government is also the ultimate goal of "stable", and the local government must assume the "stable" main responsibility.
taxAnd creditLoosely tied is the engine of rising house prices
In the past ten years, China's real estate market has experienced three rounds of easing cycles, specifically the three time periods of 2008-2009, 2012 and 2014-2016.
Each round of the easing cycle has a clear central policy spirit, as well as the central bank and the Ministry of Finance.currencyCreditThe support and tax incentives have been implemented, as well as the local government's land supply, pre-sale price restrictions, the number of purchases and housing restrictions, the purchase of housing qualifications (social security payment years) and other policy adjustments.
Take the latest round of the easing cycle (2014-2016) as an example:
Initially, in April 2014, Nanning started the first round of national regulation and control. By September of that year, only six cities in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Zhuhai and Sanya had not cancelled the purchase.
On September 30, 2014, the central bank and the China Banking Regulatory Commission issued a document to reduce the minimum down payment ratio of the first suite to 30%, relax the restrictions on “respecting loans”, and initiate loose monetary credit policies such as RRR cuts and interest rate cuts.
On March 30, 2015, the five ministries jointly issued a document to reduce the minimum down payment ratio of the first suite to 20%, and the business tax exemption period to 2 years, marking the full launch of the real estate destocking policy, 2015-2016 first and second line The city has also experienced the last madness of the Chinese real estate market.
By the end of September 2016, under the influence of strengthening the control policies in the first and second tier cities, the large-scale sheds and monetization of the third and fourth tier cities were superimposed. The latest round of “price increase and destocking” spread to the third, fourth and fifth tier cities.
Let's look at the changes in the property market's monetary credit and taxation policies over the past three decades. See the table below for details:
From the above-mentioned three-round property market easing cycle, the local government's loosening effect on the property market is very limited. Each round of real estate sales area can only stop falling and rebound after the central level policy is substantially loosened, and the house price will rebound. Following the general market rule of “after the first price”, the price often lags behind the sales area by about 3-6 months.
This pattern is particularly evident in the 2014-2016 easing cycle. From April to September 2014, major cities across the country have completed local easing policies, and the restrictions on purchases and price limits have been completely loosened, but the national real estate sales area is still rapidly declining. On September 30, 2014, the central bank and the China Banking Regulatory Commission issued a document for the first time to reduce the down payment ratio of the first home. The decline in the sales area of the property market slowed down and reached a new low (-16.3%) in February 2015. By the joint action of the five ministries in March 2015, the then central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan encouraged residents to increase leverage, which really ignited the enthusiasm of the national property market, real estate sales area immediately fell back, and house prices were also in three months (May) After the V-inversion is turned on (see the figure below).
In summary,Under the background that the current central policy has not seen substantial easing, relying solely on the local government's policy of loosening the property market is not enough to start a new round of housing price rise. In 2019, the nation's property market is likely to remain sluggish.
For ordinary homebuyers, it is necessary to pay close attention to the changes in the key policy signals of the first and second suites in the country, the financial institutions' identification criteria for the first suite, and the tax incentives for buying houses. Only when these policies issue a loose signal can they become a prerequisite for real estate to rebound.
(Source: Suning Financial Research Institute)
(Original title: The new round of housing price rise cycle is coming? Analysis of the first three rounds of property market loose can find the answer)