Once upon a time, it was a ridiculous imagination of China’s negative population growth. However, more and more relevant discussions have recently taken place, and predictions about when the negative population growth will come are also reported in the newspapers.
Although the latest birth population data for 2018 has not yet been announced,However, from the forecast data of the population born in 2018 published in some places, the downward trend is more obvious.. Huang Yushi, an associate researcher at the China Center for Population and Development Research, estimates that the population born in 2018 is between 1,500 and 16 million, which is more than 1 million less than the number of births in 2017.
In the discussion of civil society, the official also explained the issue of population birth in China.
On January 10, the National Health and Health Commission spokesperson Song Shuli said at the first press conference in 2019.There are many factors affecting fertility problems, including the size of women of childbearing age, age of marriage, age of childbirth, economic and social factors, etc.quite complicated. The Health and Welfare Committee has been continuously monitoring,The relevant data of 2018 will be announced in the near future.
The number of births in Shandong Province
Population growth is an important foundation for economic and social development. It is generally believed that the total fertility rate of 2.1 is the basic condition for a country to achieve and maintain intergenerational replacement. The so-called total fertility rate refers to the number of children born to each woman during the period of childbearing age in a country or region.
From 1949 to 1969, the total fertility rate of women of childbearing age in China was around 6. In 1980, the total fertility rate was only 2.31, and in 1996 it fell below 1.8. Since the beginning of this century, China’s total fertility rate has been between 1.5 and 1.6. According to the 2016 Statistical Bulletin on the Development of China's Health and Family Planning, the total fertility rate in China increased to 1.7 after the implementation of the comprehensive two-child system in 2016.
However, the 2017 data is not published in the 2017 Statistical Communiqué on Health and Family Planning in China. However, according to the number of new born babies published in the Gazette,In 2017, the number of new-born babies in the country was 17.58 million, and the proportion of second-child children was over 50%, a decrease of 880,000 compared with 2016.
The above Green Paper predicts that if China's total fertility rate has remained at 1.6, negative population growth will occur ahead of 2027.
For the situation in 2018, Song Shuli said that the Health and Welfare Committee has been continuously monitoring, and the relevant data will be announced in the near future.
Although national data has not yet been released, population projections have been released in some places. For example, Shandong, which is known as the most daunting child, has experienced a significant decline in the expected number of births in some cities.
The figures released by Qingdao show that according to the comprehensive calculation of the structure of women of childbearing age and the willingness of the masses, it is estimated that the registered population of Qingdao in 2018 will be about 90,000.This figure is 22.2% lower than the 115,700 people born in 2017.
From January to November 2018, the number of registered households in Qingdao was 81,112, a decrease of 21,737, a decrease of 21.1%. One of the children was born with a decrease of 8.8%; the birth of the second child was reduced by 29.0%.
According to Liaocheng data, from January 2018 to November, Liaocheng City reported 64,653 births, of which 40,782 were born, accounting for 62.98% of the total birth, a decrease of 35.83%.The number of births showed a downward trend compared with 2016 and 2017.
Another data released by Yantai shows that 42897 people were born in January-October 2018, including 20,179 children, accounting for 47.04% of the total number of births. It is expected to be born within 60,000 people throughout the year.
The Daily Economics reporter noted thatThis forecast is significantly lower than the number of births in Yantai in 2017, which was 72,600.
The situation in Weifang is 11 months before 2018,The registered population of the city was nearly 100,000, a decrease of nearly 30% year-on-year.Among them, the number of children is more than 60,000, a decrease of nearly 40%.
In addition to Shandong, other areas have also experienced a decline in the number of births. For example, in 2016, the total number of birth registrations in Zhenjiang, Jiangsu Province increased significantly, reaching 17,349, of which the second child increased by 53% to 5,760.
However, the total number of registrations in 2017 decreased by 11.7% year-on-year to 15,313. Although the number of children in the second year increased by 6,190, the increase of 7.4% was significantly slower than that of 2016.
In 2018, the total number of birth registrations in Zhenjiang City dropped to 14,080, including 8,357 for one child and 5,723 for two children, a slight decrease year-on-year.
The amount of childbirth in some hospitals also reflects fertility. For example, Beijing Maternity Hospital has delivered 12,143 people by the end of November 2018. It is estimated that the number of births will be nearly 14,000 this year, which is a decrease from the delivery of 15,203 people in 2017.
According to the "China Birth Report 2019" released by Ren Zeping's team, the population born in China in 2018 fell to less than 15 million. This figure is more than 2 million fewer than the number of births in 2017.
Deepen the research on fertility policy
Tao Tao, an associate professor at the School of Social and Population Studies at Renmin University of China, said at the press conference of the Health and Health Commission that the birth population of 2018 needs to be seen in the longer term.
The size of the birth population is affected by the size and structure of women of childbearing age. Tao Tao said that the scale of 15-49-year-old women of childbearing age in China reached its peak in 2011, and has been in a downward state since then, and the corresponding birth population has also entered the downward channel. In terms of structure, the average age of women of childbearing age is increasing. According to 2015 data, more than half of all women of childbearing age are over 40 years old, which is also an influencing factor.
The data shows that in 2017,The number of women of childbearing age between the ages of 15 and 49 is 4 million less than that of 2016. The number of women of childbearing age between 20 and 29 years old has decreased by nearly 6 million.
At the same time, with the development of economy and society, the age of first marriage and early childbearing of women in China has been deferred. Tao Tao pointed out that the number of marriages nationwide in 2017 was about 10.63 million, down 7% year-on-year.In the past three years, the average age of first childbearing and childbearing has been pushed back by 1 year.These will also have an impact on the size of the birth population and the level of birth.
"Since 2000, the annual birth population has fluctuated between 15 million and 18 million. Recently, the factors of policy adjustment, as well as the influence of the zodiac selection such as the Year of the Dragon and the Year of the Goat, are also increasing." Tao Tao said .
In the case of new changes in the fertility situation in China, Tao Tao said that it is necessary to further strengthen population monitoring. “The advancement of urbanization, the popularization of higher education, and the delay in marriage and childbirth will all have some impact on fertility levels.After 90, they became the main body of fertility, and their fertility concept and fertility will also have some new changes.Therefore, in the coming period, it is very important to further strengthen population monitoring and further master the population fertility pattern and birth pattern. "she says.
The situation of some young parents who want to be born and dare not to be born is also worthy of attention. Tao Tao said that in many investigations, people found that there are some concerns in the process of childbirth, and the supporting voices for economic and social policies are relatively high, mainly reflected in housing, employment, female labor protection, taxation, maternity leave, infant care, etc. In all aspects, there are some policy expectations. We need to build a fertility-friendly, family-friendly policy support system to help more families solve some practical difficulties in the process of childbearing.
(Article source: Daily Economic News)