From lowering the lever to stabilizing the lever, from widecurrencyTo wide credit, 2019bankCreditThe delivery strategy also changes with the wind. "The obvious difference between last year and this year is that credit was not particularly loose last year, and there were more restrictions and requirements. But this year it was obviously relaxed, and the bank was unloaded." The head of a local branch of a certain country has recently Southern reporter said.
At the time when commercial banks planned their new year's business objectives, Nandu reporters visited the company on a daily basis and learned that although the annual credit work conferences of commercial banks have not yet been held, the bank credit winds have changed significantly in 2019.
A This year's mortgage competition will be more intense
Among the retail business, the most concerned about the market is the housing mortgage loan. Will housing loans once again become the focus of the year when there is some loosening in some places? Southern reporters visited and learned that stability may be the key to the mortgage business in 2019.
The person in charge of a local branch of the country interviewed mentioned above admitted that the 2016 mortgage accounted forNew loanNearly half of the situation in Jiangshan will never reappear, but there will be no sudden tightening in 2017 and extremely tight quotas. It is expected that there will be a steady situation of quota and delivery in 2018. "The policy tone will remain unchanged and there will be no major changes in our pace."
"Although the policy of regulation and control on mortgages has not changed, this year's mortgage business still needs to maintain development. After all, this business customer is sticky and safe." A large-scale joint-stock bank Guangzhou Branch's personal loan department also told the Southern Reporter. However, under the regulatory requirements and the head office quota, the total amount of delivery will be reduced compared to last year.
The head of the personal loan department of another joint-stock bank, Guangzhou Branch, told the Southern Reporter that the mortgage is still the focus of retail credit this year. However, with the central bank's RRR cuts some time ago, it is estimated that the competition in the entire mortgage market will become more intense this year, and the mortgage has been rising.interest rateThere may be further downgrades. “When the same industry tightened the mortgage last year, the Bank increased the scale of the mortgage loan due to the sufficient amount of the mortgage.interest rateCompared with the whole industry, it is also at a relatively low level and is relatively competitive." The above-mentioned person in charge said that this year it is estimated to maintain the scale of last year.
Judging from the recent mortgage market in Guangzhou, interest rates have indeed loosened. According to Nandu reporters, many banks have quietly lowered their mortgage interest rates recently.China Merchants BankThe Guangzhou Branch lowered the interest rate on the first home mortgage from 10% above the benchmark to 8%.Shanghai Pudong Development BankThe Guangzhou branch has been lowered from the previous 20% to 15%.Industrial BankIt also lowered the interest rate of the first suite in the Guangfo area from 15% to 10%.
“Our mortgage interest rate is mainly adjusted by region, and Guangzhou has recently been lowered,” said the person in charge of the above-mentioned shares. However, whether the mortgage interest rate will be further lowered will need to consider various factors such as market conditions, head office pricing, and policy environment.
B Small and medium-sized and consumer credit rights will increase
So what does the retail business focus on? The weight of the small and medium-sized consumer loans in the credit supply may increase. “We have also been meeting intensively recently to discuss how this credit line should be put in. The policy encourages the development of private and small and micro enterprises, which is definitely the focus of our attention this year.” The head of the personal loan department of a large joint-stock bank in Guangzhou, South China. Said to the Southern Reporter.
In addition to regulatory requirements and policy incentives, the above-mentioned person in charge further stated that from the perspective of management, this year will also increase the development of Xiaowei. "We have increased the weight of small and micro-distribution this year. Because the revenue generated by small and micro-credit products is still considerable, but we need to control the risks. So we will focus on doing it, but the scale will not suddenly go up and need to be steadily improved."
Promoting investment and consumption was an important part of the central economic work conference that was mentioned last year in the deployment of key tasks for this year. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first three quarters of 2018, the contribution rate of consumption to economic growth was 78%, an increase of 14 percentage points over the same period of the previous year. Based on the above-mentioned policy orientation and the business convenience brought by financial technology, the person in charge of the local branch of a certain state-owned bank believes that the consumption loan will be increased in 2019.
However, unlike the previous year's bank “4321” credit supply rhythm, some banks' credit allocation strategies have also changed this year. "The head office's request to us is how much business can be awarded at the beginning of the year." The above-mentioned lenders said that the target for the first quarter of this year is 50%, which means that half of the year's credit will be completed in the first quarter.
C to the public: the infrastructure is warming up, the property is cautious
Unlike last year's “no shortage of projects”, since 2019, the central bank has provided sufficient medium- and long-term liquidity through RRR cuts and incremental medium-term lending facilities (M LF). According to the Southern Reporter, there is no shortage of funds for the banks, and the lack of good projects.
The infrastructure is expected to pick up this year, or the focus of the bank's public credit this year. "There was no lack of investment infrastructure in the past year, but the total amount of investment was not large. The direct reason was that there were few infrastructure projects last year." The person in charge of the local branch of a certain state-owned bank pointed out that under the policy spring, the expansion of infrastructure projects in 2019 and the scope of bank selection have also expanded.
In fact, the infrastructure fell sharply in 2018, mainly due to the superposition effect of macroeconomic policies such as de-leverage, strong supervision, strengthening local debt control, comprehensive PPP project inventory, increasing environmental protection, and lowering the fiscal deficit rate.
Bank of CommunicationsLian Ping, the chief economist, also mentioned in the 10 pre-judgment of 2019 that the macro-policy has clearly turned to focus on increasing infrastructure investment. “It is expected that infrastructure investment will increase by 10% in 2019 and become a key force driving investment.” The approval of infrastructure projects in recent times has also been significantly accelerated. According to the incomplete statistics of the Southern Reporter, from the fourth quarter of 2018 to the present, the total investment scale of the infrastructure projects intensively approved by the National Development and Reform Commission exceeded 90 trillion yuan in 90 days.
Infrastructure investment has picked up, butreal estateRegulatory policies are still difficult to relax,House priceThe upward momentum has been curbed, and the pressure on the source of housing funds still exists. Lian Ping believes that with the decrease in land acquisition expenses, the growth rate of real estate development investment will drop significantly, and is expected to increase by 3%-5%.
"This year, we are still cautious about the credit supply of real estate projects. Recently, several real estate projects have been reported to the head office, and the head office has not yet approved it." Another investment bank of the joint-stock bank also told the Southern Reporter that even a large-scale housing company with a relatively high rating would not necessarily launch the head office.
D dredge monetary policy transmission is the key
After the central bank's comprehensive RRR cut, the net release of about 800 billion yuan of long-term incremental funds. The original intention of loose money is to hope that the cost of entity financing will fall effectively and the real economy will pick up instead of depositing funds inside the financial system. In the context of the financial de-leverage of the pre-leverage, the burden of monetary easing to the entity falls on the credit in the table.
The data shows that entity financing costs are still high. In the third quarter of 2018, the weighted average loan interest rate of financial institutions was 5 yuan. 94% were 18BP and 20BP higher than the same period last year and the end of last year. In terms of specific details, in addition to the decline in the bill financing interest rate due to the decline in the financial market interest rate, the general loan interest rate is still on the rise.
Therefore, "the most fundamental purpose is to supplement the bank with low-cost funds. To increase credit supply for banks, reduce financing costs, and boost the effect of wide credit." Li Qilin, chief economist of Lianxun Securities, pointed out how to get through monetary policy. The transmission mechanism to achieve "wide currency" to "wide credit" is the next stage of policy focus.
Recently, the People's Bank of China, Yi Gang, said in an interview that the People's Bank of China provided sufficient medium- and long-term liquidity through four times of RRR cuts and incremental MTFs, which were basically effectively transmitted to the real economy.
"In the next step, the People's Bank of China will strengthen coordination and cooperation with relevant departments, comprehensively implement policies, and through the 'several ups', from the two sides of supply and demand to jointly unblock the micro-foundation of monetary policy transmission," Yi Gang said, improving the monetary policy transmission mechanism, the key It is necessary to establish an incentive mechanism for banks and actively increase support for the real economy, instead of using the indicators and administrative methods of dispatching tasks.
(Article source: Southern Metropolis Daily)