Since the second half of last year, the Hong Kong property market has been a breeze. Since the beginning of 2019, as the market sentiment has improved, the Hong Kong property market has shown signs of recovery.
Hong Kong FebruaryHouse price1.4% qoq
According to the data of Midland Real Estate, the average price of Hong Kong in February reached 12,482 Hong Kong dollars, up 1.4% from the previous month. Prior to this, Hong Kong's January private residential price index has risen for the first time in six months, an increase of 0.1%.
Image source: Midland Realty
At the same time, the Central Plains real estate data showed that the second-hand housing market in Hong Kong also significantly rebounded. In February, a total of 2,290 second-hand transactions were recorded, totaling 17.78 billion Hong Kong dollars, up 4.7% and 11.9% respectively.
Subject tointerest rateAffected by the high and vacant tax news, Hong Kong house prices began to fall in August last year, and once recorded the longest losing streak since the 2008 financial crisis, that is, a continuous decline of 13 weeks. Since the August highs last year, Hong Kong house prices have fallen by nearly 10%.
Hong Kong house price trend in the past year
Source: Midland Realty
Before this round of decline, Hong Kong's housing prices continued to rise for 29 months, and Hong Kong has therefore ranked first in the city that is the most difficult to afford global housing prices for eight consecutive years.
Hong Kong house price forecast this year: may rise 15%
At present, with the Fed's suspension of interest rate hikes and the stabilization of the RMB exchange rate, the market is beginning to be optimistic about the prospects of Hong Kong's property market this year.
CLSA Real EstateAnalyst Nicole Wong said that the stabilization of the Hong Kong stock market and the RMB exchange rate may benefit Hong Kong real estate. In addition, the Fed is "moderate"interest rateThe guidelines may also encourage Hong Kong investors to seek returns in higher-yielding investments such as real estate. Therefore, Hong Kong house prices will bottom out in the next few months and then usher in a 15% rebound.
Ken Yeung, a real estate analyst at Citibank, also believes that recent strong sales have once again proved that buyers' sentiment has improved and they are releasing repressed rigid demand. It is estimated that from April to December this year, Hong Kong house prices will rise by 10%.
S&P Global Ratings also said in a report this month that after experiencing last year's decline, Hong Kong's house prices are expected to rebound by 5% in 2019. As the Fed suspends interest rate hikes, Hong Kong's interest rate hike pressure has eased. Due to strong potential demand, trading volume has shown signs of early recovery. Moreover, due to the government's commitment to maintain an annual supply of more than 20,000 sets, the supply has slowed for the first time, which means that supply will not increase significantly in the next 12-18 months. .
However, at a time when the market is generally optimistic about the prospects of the property market, there are also some market participants who believe that the possible vacancy tax will put pressure on house prices. In June last year, the Hong Kong Executive Council imposed a vacancy tax on first-hand houses that were vacant for one year or more. The rent of the house is assessed at the time of taxation, and the vacant rate is set at 200% of the estimated annual rent. It is reported that the Hong Kong government has already completed the draft vacancy tax bill and is preparing to submit it to the Legislative Council for discussion next month.
So, do you think that housing prices in Hong Kong will continue to fall this year, or will it return to the uptrend?
For investors' reference only, does not constitute investment advice
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