After the 19th National Congress, the Chinese economy never mentioned a clear one.GDPThe goal of growth, from security 9, security 8, security 7, to simply not mention, this is why?
Perhaps the economic growth rate is not the most important goal.
In the past, the Chinese economy has been racing all the way in the fast lane, and it has realized how many people have become rich dreams.
If you tell me now that the car has switched from the fast lane to the slow lane, have you already felt it?
01,The M2 becomes a mystery
Recently, the Central Bank announced the financial statistics in March. In March, the M2 growth rate was 8.2% of the same proportion. In February this year, the growth rate of M2 was 8.8%. In March of last year, there was even a 10.6% double-digit growth.
Why use it? Because 8.2% was the low point in December 2017, after M2 adopted the new statistical method in January this year, the M2 growth rate rebounded for two consecutive months.
The so-called new statistical method is to include money market funds in the statistical category of M2.Monetary FundEquivalent to currency.
It is reasonable to say that after the inclusion of money funds in the M2 statistics, M2 should expand its capacity. Therefore, the figures for the first two months of this year are 8.6% and 8.8%, respectively. Everything seems reasonable.
However, the data for March is eye-popping and returns to 8.2%.
To this end, the central bank also specifically explained that the statistics for the whole year last year were calculated in a new way, and the results were all lower than those of the original statistics.
As a result, the low point of M2 moved downward by 0.1%, and the historical minimum level in December last year changed from 8.2% to 8.1%. The explanation of the Central Mother's mother is to make everyone not too sensitive to the March data, but in reality it will be a little more than fifty steps.
Although the growth rate of M2 has not broken a new low for the time being, no matter whether it is the new statistical method or the original statistical method, the growth trend of M2 is declining.
Historically, one of the strongest proofs of the Chinese economy running on the fast track iscurrency supplyM2 maintains a double-digit growth.
Therefore, the decline in M2 also reflects the fact that the future money supply is no longer as abundant as it used to be.
02,Deposit and loaninterest rateLoose
This seems to confirm that the new governor of the central bank Yi Gang's speech at the Boao Forum for Asia is going to take the road to interest rate liberalization and allow banks to decide on deposit and lending rates themselves.
As a result, some people shouted that the deposit war is coming, and the interest on saving money will be even higher.
In fact, is this true?
According to the data released by the Central Bank, the balance of RMB deposits at the end of November 2017 was 164.9 trillion yuan, and the balance of RMB deposits at the end of December was 164.1 trillion yuan.
In one month's time, deposits were lost by RMB 792.9 billion. It should be noted that RMB deposits in 2017 increased by RMB 13.51 trillion.
Indeed, in the eyes of many people, the money supply is decreasing, deposits are losing, and banks are very short of money.
Therefore, banks should increase deposit rates and absorb more deposits.
However, judging from the deposit rate announced by banks at present, the rate of increase of fixed deposits is only between 20% and 30%.
Even if the floating space mentioned double the benchmark interest rate, which is 3%, and it is still very low compared with the current money fund yield. For example, the current annual yield of Yuebao is 4.05%.
Not to mention that using a one-year fixed deposit interest rate to compare the yield of money funds is not appropriate. If you use the current deposit rate of 0.35% to compare, you need to go up 11.5 times in order to tie in your balance.
Although there is a risk premium between deposits and money funds, the risk of money funds is small after all.
Withdrawal of ten thousand steps, even if the full interest rate market, in the case of declining money supply, deposit rates can really rise indefinitely?
This is impossible. No country will allow bank deposits to conduct vicious competition and allow deposit wars to occur.
It must be clear that banks are at the top of the Chinese financial system, monopolizing almost all of their financial resources, and state-owned big banks have an absolute advantage.
Whose orders are heard will not be able to reach the market.
However, the loan interest rate is different.
Although there may be small and medium-sized commercial banks to lower the loan interest rate for market share, it does not have a great impact on the overall loan interest rate.
First, the size of small and medium-sized banks is not as big as it is, and it is difficult to pose a threat to big banks. Second, the supply of money is decreasing, and the amount of credit will become very tight, and the interest rate will not be reduced.
In short, the bargaining power is notOrdinary peopleOn the other hand, how high the deposit interest rate is, it is difficult to match with capital gains.
03,Capital and asset battle
Don't let bad coins expel good money. This sentence has now become the mantra of regulation.
What is bad money? It is the currency that has been surpassing in the past. They have a great impact on interest rates and assets. Cheap capital is constantly pushing up the price of assets.
Entering a new era, losing the foundation of money supply, and relying on bank borrowing liabilities + money over-inflation to bring about overnight riches, is dying out.
Any asset prices that depend on capital to push up will face a watershed at the moment.
The premium ability becomes weaker and weaker. In the end, it may only eat inflation.
In the past, the premium ability of assets was higher than capital, several times, dozens of times, and several hundred times. The premium ability of future assets may even be weaker than capital.
The capital of the original 3 yuan is pushing the assets of 1 yuan, and now the capital of 1 yuan is pushing the assets of 1 yuan. In the future, the capital of 1 yuan may be pushed into the assets of 2 yuan.
The core nature of assets is realized. If the valuation of assets is getting weaker and weaker, even if it becomes more and more difficult to realize, assets will become liabilities.
In the face of such changes, please remember 4 points:
1, the expansion of assets depends on the promotion of capital, if the capital is reduced, the expansion of assets will be limited, including the property market, stock market, bond market and so on.
What is the process of washing the valuation, that is, formerly rich and capricious, and now no money, will not afford a high premium.
2. The deposit interest rate is not necessarily high, but the loan interest rate can be very high, and if the deposit interest rate becomes higher, it also means that the cost of capital will increase, and the capital's premium ability will also become stronger.
Therefore, how to make capital more value-added is the key to your next consideration. The deposit bank is not called capital appreciation. Learning to manage finance should be just a matter for everyone to deal with the risk of asset devaluation.
3. Whether it is assets or capital, the core advantage lies in liquidity. Only if you have liquidity, you have the bargaining power and you have the bargaining power. Then you can realize real premium realization.
Therefore, please pay attention to your cash flow and do not lose your future initiative because of the exhaustion of cash flow.
4. Your capital is not just money, it also includes your comprehensive quality core.
Long-term wealth relies not on speculation, but on the judgment and competitiveness of the times and even beyond the times.