Under the command of “resolutely curbing the rise in housing prices”, the expectation of rising house prices has begun to slowly become cold, and the investment enthusiasm of investors has become increasingly cold with the market.Hotspot cities began to rise in inventory and house prices fell.
According to the median big house data of 142 cities in the Housing Big Data Joint Laboratory and the China University of Science and Technology's Financial and Economic Strategy Research Institute, the median house price in the first-tier cities in September 2018 is stable. Rise,New first-tier cities, second-tier cities and third- and fourth-tier cities have declined slightly.
In fact, in addition to the new first-, second-, third- and fourth-tier cities, there are still some places that are not covered by our sights. That is the more extensive county town. Whether it is administrative division or economic development, county development has always been important. A ring.
The housing prices of the majority of counties are actually falling.
"Two downs" are not too many, the county town prices have lumps
We are divided into two, three, and four cities in the city. In fact, the county also has its own “scorn chain”, especially in the performance of house prices.
At the top of the station is the place where you can enjoy the most obvious location advantage.Usually actingThe satellite city of a big city, or the county town called "sleeping city",Even if the geographical position is superior, it does not have to be in the urban area of the county.
The representative of this type of county is Sanhe City, Hebei Province.(The county-level city is essentially county-level), of course, we are more called for this county town call."Yanjiao",Yanjiao is only a subordinate town of Sanhe City, not the government resident of Sanhe City. However, we know that the price of Yanjiao has not been followed by its superior Langfang or even Hebei Province, but is followed by Beijing.
Similar to this, it is also known as the "Northern Three Counties".Xianghe County and Dachang CountyAnd there is direct access to Shanghai Rail Transit Line 11Kunshan City, Jiangsu ProvinceAdjacent to Shanghai Qingpu District and Jinshan DistrictJiashan County, Zhejiang ProvincePrices are in the market with the surrounding big cities, and hate can not be directly aligned with the big cities.
Beyond the city, it is the Baiqiang County.In economically developed regions, purchasing power naturally goes without saying. Especially in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, Baiqiang County occupies half of the country, and the county towns with more than 10,000 houses are everywhere.itsreal estateThe market can be compared to some third- and fourth-tier cities and even second-tier cities.
▌So what is the bottom?Although this may not be very friendly, most of the counties are “other counties” that are not well classified, so natural house prices are also in a relatively low position.
When the real estate is hot, the price increase of the county town can be said to be a city without losing the land, but it is not too much to let the price rise.In some counties, house prices plummeted by 40%.This degree is really comparable to the stock market.
In Yanjiao Town, the sleeping city of Beijing, the house price can be said to lead the entire Hebei Province, with a house price of 18,100 in September.Decreased by 20.35% year-on-year,The average house price in the past month has continued to decline, currently at 17,900.
The two "downs" in Yanjiao are really not much.
In Jurong, Jiangsu, the average price of new homes in January 2017 was around 6,000 yuan / square meter, and by December it had reached 10,000 yuan / square meter, only 4,000 yuan / square meter in one year. In the metropolitan area of Nanjing, Jurong's house price rose the most, reaching a maximum of 23,000 yuan / square meter.
But now in Jurong, according to the data of China's house price network,Its average price is 10,300, which can be said to have been compared with its highest peak.
In all parts of the country, many counties and cities are “up and down”, and in the big cities, “houses are sold at a discount”.Also began to spread in the county town,In addition to Yanjiao, Jurong, and Anhui Taihe, Feixi, Feidong and other places.
Who is buying a county?
▌How is the house price in the county town made?
In fact, the development model of some county towns is similar to the path of the last round of third- and fourth-tier cities. Cat brother has also stressed many timesThe effect of shed reform on housing prices in third- and fourth-tier cities.
Of course, the county and the city are still a little different. After all, compared with the urban mains, the county towns that can walk out of their own independent market like Yanjiao are still in a minority. Most of the county towns are slightly lower in terms of unit price and total price.
▌Who is buying a house in the county?
1 With the acceleration of urbanization, the rural population has become a trend in the city.Then, in addition to entering the "city", entering the "town" has become the choice of some people, and the money in hand is limited. Then the family in the town can rise to a level higher than the living conditions in the rural areas, many of which belong to the just-needed group.
2 return home to buy a home.Some people who enter the big cities work, especially those who enter the first- and second-tier cities. Due to the high housing prices in their cities, the usual choice is to return home.
3 pure investment.The restricted purchase areas of hot cities are generally concentrated in urban areas, and some counties are usually not within the limits of purchase. In the channel of rising house prices, the credit policy is relatively loose, and it is not difficult to hold a large number of houses.
Ups and downs, buys and buys, rises, buys, buys, buys, falls, squats?
How good is the rise, how much can you fall?
In fact, the housing prices in the county are actually more fragile than the cities.
The same is due to the policy dividends of the shed reform and the fiery effect of the real estate market, butOnce the risk occurs, the county must be more dangerous than the city.What must be withstood at that time is the fear of being dominated by "falling house prices."
The shed-changing dividends are gradually disappearing. The time node in 2020 is actually not so far. Now, when the risks have not yet disappeared, the first-line, first-line and strong second-line real estate markets are falling. Under the circumstance, the real estate market of the third and fourth tiers has begun to show its cooling, and it has begun to drive down the cooling of the county.
Then, the popularity of real estate, the county must be abandoned earlier than its superior city.
On the other hand, selling does not necessarily bring about the desired effect.
County and county-level cities, in fact, largely differ in the difference between population and economic situation. The county is dominated by agricultural population, while the county-level city is dominated by non-agricultural population. Economic aggregate.
In fact, as population growth slows, populations increaseLong andThe areas with the most aging population are not big cities, but rather the majority of counties. So who will pick up the market when it is sold?The reduction in the total amount and increment of the population means that the need is not so strong,The risk of real estate is realized by you, so others may not be stupid.
If the risk is coming out, then the first thing I feel is the county.For the “sleeping city”, there are big cities such as the migratory birds that migrate daily.For the Baiqiang County, there is still an economic foundation to support the bottom, then for those "other county towns"?
How good is it when you first rise, then how much hate you can fall,Going up the sky will also be returned to the original shape.It is not the market that can be plunged into the heat.
The death of small and medium-sized real estate developers
Of course, the Economic Daily said that the argument that real estate has entered the "cold winter" is untenable.
However, if people drink water, they will know themselves. Daxuan Vanke is shouting "live",Although the large housing companies did not agree, they are also shrinking.But for most of the county towns, these big housing enterprises are actually not with them, but the local small and medium-sized developers are the "land snakes" in the county town.
Lin Feng, president of Xuhui Group, gave a speech during the media event and proposed ten ways for the housing company to “die”. Big house enterprises will definitely not die so much.This is more like saying to small and medium-sized housing companies, of course, is also to remind many investors.
Cat brother summed it up,These ten methods of death are in line with the temperament of some local housing enterprises.
1 quick success, rapid expansion, but all kinds of hardware and software support has not kept up;
2 short-term long-term investment, misplaced development, has always been a taboo in various industries;
3 plus leverage, add leverage, and finally push the top of the pound;
4 The sword went astray and encountered strong supervision;
5 quality is life, but not done;
6 mouth is small, the scale is too large and only collapses;
7 wrong time took the wrong place, then pay a word;
8 nights of rich dreams do too much;
9 does not advance, no innovation, and finally dies;
Wash your hands in 10 gold basins and worship the real estate.
For these small and medium-sized real estate developers, the law of death is different, but when they die, they are a bit similar, just like reality.Less hot, but more deadly,The risk is about accumulating during the heat.
We often say that developers are "human fine", and the price increase is very powerful. However, such a "human fine" can not always increase prices, and even such "human fine" will "die".
So for us as individual investors, how much more can we be more savvy than these "people"?
(Article source: Big Cat Finance)