Guosen Securities: Market or current historic opportunity
On January 10, Guosen Securities 2019 Annual Strategy Meeting was held in Shenzhen. Focusing on exploring investment opportunities under “efficiency·transformation”, Yue Kesheng, president of Guoxin Securities, predicts that there may be historic investment opportunities in the capital market, and 2019 is the “key opportunity” year, optimistic about 5G, artificial intelligence and other sectors.
"From the perspective of global capital markets, the current valuation of the A-share market is attractive." Yue Kesheng said that the current valuation of the A-share market, whether it is vertical comparison or horizontal comparison, is in a very low position. In this regard, the chief strategy of Guosen Securities Economic Research InstituteAnalystYan Xiang further stated that the average P/B ratio of about half of the current A-shares in the industry sector is at the lowest level in history, while the average ROE of more than half of the industry sectors is above the historical average. "This contrast reflects the fact that stock market volatility in the past year has been mainly affected by investor expectations and sentiment, and has also left room for future market upswing," Yan Xiang said.
Dong Dezhi, chief macro analyst of Guosen Securities Economic Research Institute, believes that the three macro variables of economic growth, inflation and leverage will quickly bottom out in the first quarter of 2019 and stabilize in the second quarter. "It is expected that in 2019, China's comprehensive inflation index will lower its focus in volatility, and the economic growth rate will stabilize in the volatility. The growth rate of social welfare is expected to rebound slightly from May to July, and the 'tight credit' situation will be eased." Dong Dezhi predicted.
Li Wei, the chairman of Banxia Investment, predicted the trend of A shares in 2019 with the "transaction of Qiankun". She believes that A shares will go out of W type in 2019. “The valuation of A-shares will continue to decline for a period of time. As the period of the fastest decline in earnings has passed, the market will have a bottom of valuation and then rebound. Then with the further decline in corporate earnings, A-shares will have a profit forecast. Li Wei said.
Yue Kesheng is optimistic that the capital market may have historic investment opportunities in the future, and 2019 is the key year and the year of opportunity, which is worthy of investors' active grasp. He said that on the one hand, high-quality development will inevitably lead to a number of outstanding leading enterprises, and China is expected to produce a large number of outstanding listed companies with sustained and stable profits, which is the cornerstone for the sustainable development of the capital market. On the other hand, China is a huge economy with huge domestic demand, and external factors will have limited impact on economic growth or corporate profits.
"Currently, a new round of technological revolution and industrial revolution has flourished, which has had a profound impact on the economy and society. Listed companies that have an advantage in the global industrial chain and have continuous innovation capabilities are expected to quickly stand out and gain the recognition and sought after by investors. Among them, 5G, artificial intelligence, new energy vehicles, national defense military, excellent securities financial enterprises and real estate leaders are particularly worthy of attention." Yue Kesheng said.
Yan Xiang said that considering that the valuation has reached the bottom andinterest rateThe level is constantly moving downwards. It is expected that all listed companies will be listed in 2019.PerformanceThe growth rate will be between 8% and 10%, and the expected yield of equity assets in 2019 is around 15%. “Structurally, it is recommended to focus on three directions: one is the leading enterprise with high return on net assets and continuous stability, the second is the dominant enterprise on the 2B side of public service, and the third is the frontier of technology represented by 5G and artificial intelligence.”
(Article source: Shanghai Securities News)