Since January 4th, the focus of the equity market has moved upwards, and the central bank's RRR cuts and new home appliance consumption policies have jointly promoted market preferences. In the past two days, with the accumulation of profit taking, the market has doubts about the rebound of the market outlook, and the disk has a mild oscillation feature. We believe that this round of rally is not over yet, and the expected change in capital may be the deeper reason for this round of rebound.
Restricted sharesUnblocking pressure release
In late December 2018, the market counter-attack was weak, and the constraint was that in the context of the year-end assessment, some institutions had the demand to lock in product revenue. A visible phenomenon isbig dealThe scale soared at the end of December 2018. From 26th to 28th, the transaction amount reached 15.3 billion yuan. The institution locked in profits through the block trading market. At the same time, the arbitrage funds were sold in the secondary market, and some stocks were enlarged. Disk fluctuations, such as the ratio of block trades to the market capitalization of the last three days before the New Year's Day in China, reached 1.36%. In view of the completion of the institutional lock-in profit demand after the New Year, this negative factor is basically fulfilled. In other words, the weight of the white horse stocks is decreasing marginally.
Another major obstacle to the previous rebound came from the pressure to lift the ban on restricted shares, only January 2Lifting the banThe scale reached 14.7 billion shares. If you observe the performance of the last year's lifting of the ban on the lifting of the ban, you can find that most stocks show a trend of first suppression and then rise. On the 5th day before the lifting of the ban, the average banned stocks fell 2.13%, and on the 5th day after the lifting of the ban, the banned stocks rose an average of 1.27%. A large number of banned stocks expired for the broader market but there are opportunities for gaming.
Dollar index peaks
In addition, the S&P 500 index hit a massive earthquake in December 2018, and the VIX index, which reflected panic, once soared to around 36. The core driving force behind this round of US stocks comes from the confirmation of the peak of the US economy, including the US bond yield curve upside down, European dollars.interest rateThe upside curve of the futures and the widening of the credit spread of the US debt are the pre-signals of the economy’s peak, soPerformanceAnd the valuation of the double kill jointly gave birth to the adjustment of the US stock this round.
The performance peaked in turn forced the Fed to raise interest rates. If it is a 30-day federalfundinterest rateFutures estimates that the probability of a Fed rate hike in March and June 2019 will fall below 5% after the New Year's Day. This means that the market believes that the Fed will not raise interest rates in the first half of 2019, and the rate hike will start to a certain extent. To suppress the upward trend of the US dollar index, the US dollar index has some interesting links with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index in history.
After 1990, the US dollar index and the MSCI emerging market showed a significant negative correlation, the correlation coefficient of the two can reach -0.54. At the same time, the US dollar index has certain reference for predicting the inflection point of MSCI emerging markets. In the past, the four rounds of MSCI emerging market stage lows lag behind the high point of the US dollar index, including 1998, 2001, 2008, 2015. The high point of the US dollar index is ahead of the emerging market index lows in January, February, June and March. Considering that the current high point of the US dollar index occurred in November 2018, this means that once the US dollar index peaks, the greater probability that the emerging market inflection point will appear before May 2019. In terms of exchange rate, emerging markets may have independent market conditions in the future, which will help improve the A-share preference.
Focus on tracking whether credit transmission is smooth
From the historical experience, the RRR reduction is beneficial to the part.themeThe expansion of the market. After 2015, a total of 8 rounds of RRR cuts occurred. From the performance of the 5th day after the announcement of the RRR cut, the financial and pan-cycle industries (petrochemical, coal, nonferrous metals, construction) became the target of capital priority, and the first time of capital benefited from the layout. Industry that restarts countercyclical policies. Combined with the performance of the first week of this RRR cut, we can find that the above-mentioned subjects are not outstanding. There are two main reasons. First, the market generally expects the commodity market to be weak in 2019. Second, the market is worried about the market in the context of wide credit. Banks have become the target of non-performing assets, so the banking sector also lacks financial support. On the disk, the funds retreat to the next level, the so-called new infrastructure concept, UHV, high-speed rail, 5G, etc. become the new direction of the counter-cyclical policy of capital layout. At the beginning of each year, all localities will enter the annual provincial-level local two sessions. This theme is expected to spread and lead a new round of policy speculation.
The current factor limiting market reversal is that the market cannot determine whether credit transmission is smooth, if the foundationcurrencyRedundancy is within the commercial banking system, which may result in a significant reduction in the effectiveness of a range of measures, such as RRR cuts. From the recent micro-indicators, the probability of poor conduction at this stage is high: First, DR007 is less than 7 days in the first half of January.RepoInterest rates, which mark the excess liquidity of the banking system. Secondly, various commercial banks have successively disclosed the issuance quotas for interbank deposits in 2019. Some of the city commercial banks such as Shanghai Bank, Jiangsu Bank and Bank of Beijing have increased their issuance quotas. In view of the fact that interbank deposit certificates can be regarded as tools for commercial banks to supplement cash flow to a certain extent, This adjustment reflects the fact that the city's commercial banks are still worried about the funding environment for the coming year. In view of the city commercial bankCreditMore docking in small and medium-sized enterprises, this is not good news for the improvement of the financing environment. Once again, you can observe the broad-spectrum interest rate to verify the coverage of wide credit. The loan-to-trust ratio of 1 to 2 years hit a new high in the past two years in November 2018, closing at 8.56%. The data shows that the trust interest rate has not followed the national debt. The decline in interest rates has declined, reflecting that there are still structural problems in credit transmission, and funds have not benefited all types of enterprises. Before the credit environment really improves, the path of corporate performance recovery is difficult to deduct, which will limit the rebound of the market. From this dimension, the market is still in the rebound stage, and has not yet turned back.
The picture shows the trend of MSCI Emerging Markets Index and US Dollar Index
The weight of the white horse stocks selling power slowed down,Restricted saleThe release of pressure and the reduction of the new infrastructure concept have pushed up the disk preference, and there is still a structural opportunity in the equity market before the release of the impairment risk of listed companies' goodwill in January.
(Article source: Futures Daily)