Ten years of technology cycle in the communications industry, 5G three application scenarios are expected to give birth to richer industrial applications
The communications industry has undergone a technical upgrade every ten years, and advances in wireless communications technology have brought about changes in communications services. From 1G to 2G changed the way of communication, from fixed-line calls to mobile phones. In the 3G era, the use of wireless mobile technology for data communication began, leading to the rise of the Internet. The commercialization of 4G has spawned the development of mobile internet. The 5G will bring a unified communication standard and enter the era of all things connected. 3GPP's three major application scenarios defined by 5GPP: eMBB (Enhanced Mobile Broadband), mMTC (Massive IoT), and URLLC (Highly Reliable and Low Latency Connection). The corresponding applications are: 3D/Ultra HD video and other high-traffic mobile broadband. Business, large-scale Internet of Things business, driverless, industrial automation and other services that require low latency and high reliability.
2019 or 5G first year, large-scale commercial approaching
From the timetable published by the major operators around the world, China leads the 5G construction.China MobileIt is expected to be pre-commercial in 2019 and fully commercialized by 2020. Telecom and China Unicom will also be commercialized by 2020, and commercial time in Korea and Japan will be roughly around 2020. In the North American region, the US T-mobile will achieve full coverage in the United States by 2020. In September 2018, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has basically confirmed the deployment of 5G in the 3.3-3.6GHz, 4.8-5GHz, 24.75-27.5GHz, and 37-42.5GHz frequency bands. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued test spectrum to the three major operators, and the 5G construction has steadily advanced.
Compared with the construction process of 4G and 5G, China's 5G officially opened some urban scale trials. The 4G construction process is basically divided into four phases: the first phase, the standard determination and the technical test, which takes about one year; the second phase, the phased scale test, which takes nearly 10 months; the third phase, the release of the scale construction plan The tender was officially launched; in the fourth stage, the 4G license was issued (six months after the tender was launched) and officially commercialized. Referring to the 4G networking process, China is currently in the phased scale trial phase. It is expected that the operator will start the tender in September 2019, when the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will issue 5G licenses to operators.
At this stage, the plate is better configured.
Comparing the ten-year market trend of the communications industry, it is found that there are better relative returns in the first half of the year before and after the license. In January 2009, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued 3G licenses to the three major operators. From August 2008 to June 2009, the Shenwan Communication Industry Index was relative toShanghai and Shenzhen 300Excessive returns were obvious; in addition, on December 4, 2013, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued 4G licenses. From March 2013 to October 2014, Shenwan Telecom also had obvious excess returns relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index. We found that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a formal license to the operator as a time node. The communication industry has a good excess return compared with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index in the first half of the year. We expect the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology to issue official 5G licenses to operators around September 2019. So at this stage is a better configuration time window.
We recommend investing in the 5G main channel and recommending a more flexible base station master:ZTE; base station PCB:Shennan circuit,Hudian shares; The deterministic optical communication sector:Bonfire communication,Guangxun Technology. Also pay attentionTongyu Communication(antenna),*ST Van Valley(filter), etc.
The 5G license was issued less than expected; the industry chain matured less than expected.
(Article source: Lianxun Securities)