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Qin Hong: The market interest rate continues to decline.

January 11, 2019 17:09
Author:Qin Hong
source: 澎湃News

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[Qin Hong: The market interest rate continues to decline. The valuation of A-shares is moving upwards.] Once the huge profit-making effect brought by the A-stock stock hot money hits the price limit and the index shifts upwards in the continuous shock, it will gradually weaken the market incremental funds. Worry. Moreover, the continuous decline in market interest rates has also formed, and the experience of the liquidity bull market from 2014 to 2015 will also stimulate the willingness to increase the amount of incremental funds.

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On Friday, the A-shares showed a tendency to shift upwards in the shock. Among them, the stock price of blue chip stocks represented by financial stocks and liquor stocks has gradually stabilized, driving the Shanghai Composite Index to continue to rise.

This has stimulated the willingness of the market to make hot money.New sharesThe stocks with strong stock price elasticity and high market recognition, such as oversold low-priced stocks, have repeatedly hit the daily limit and become the pioneers of the short-term A-share market.

  Hot money is more willing to be excited

Recently, there have been two more positive signals in the A-share market. First, the RMB exchange rate has continued to strengthen, which will bring capital.Net inflow. Because the appreciation of the renminbi is expected to increase, foreign investors are willing to increase the A-shares, so that they can get the appreciation of the renminbi, and because the A-shares are in a relatively low-level region, they can also bring in the appreciation of the stock price. As a result, foreign funds are willing to Continue to increase positions. FridayShanghai Stock ConnectNet inflow of 2.9 billion yuan,Deep shareThe net inflow was 1.5 billion yuan. This is actually the main driving force behind the gradual stabilization of blue chip stocks.

Second, the marketinterest rateContinue to go down. As the central bank has continued to reduce its standards since 2018,bankThe funds between the two tend to be loose. In addition, quality bonds,Financial managementThe product is already tight, indicating that more and more funds are chasing high-quality wealth management products, which will reduce the market.interest rate.

This is a positive signal for the A-share market. For example, if the market interest rate goes down, it will inevitably raise the valuation coordinates of the securities market. Historical experience also shows that as long as the risk-free interest rate is high, the stock-based equity asset yield will be poor. In the 1960s and 1970s, the US economy was strong, but inflationary pressures were high. The 10-year government bond interest rate has been above 10%. Therefore, US stocks performed poorly. However, once the risk-free interest rate continues to decline, even if the economic environment is not too good, the market buoyancy will increase due to sufficient liquidity, bringing a round of liquidity bull market. This is the case for the A-share bull market from 2014 to the first half of 2015. Therefore, the current downward trend in market interest rates has spurred the bulls to do more.

  Incremental funds have not been more

For the time being, the market interest rate is down, mainly to stimulate the stock of hot money andNorthbound fundsDo more enthusiasm. The former, such as oversold low-priced stocks,themeThe rise of stocks, the increase in the number of daily limit, the latter is the trend of blue-chip stocks, white horse stocks rebounded at the bottom,Guizhou Maotai(600519) and other varieties have appeared a clearer K-line form at the bottom of the disk.

However, there seems to be no more work for incremental funding. After all, the trading volume of the A-share market has not been significantly enlarged. Taking the Shanghai stock market as an example, it has been around 150 billion yuan in recent trading days. On Friday, the volume of transactions fell to 122.376 billion yuan, and showed a shrinking trend. This shows that the hot money in the market is desperately hitting the daily limit, but the incremental funds are still in the state of watching.

In this regard, some analysts believe that this is mainly because the incremental funds have not yet shaken off the shadow of the plunge since the third quarter of last year, and dare not easily re-raise.

However, from the experience of past trends, once the huge profit-making effect brought by the A-stock stock hot money hits the stoppage and the index's focus shifts in the continuous shock, it will gradually weaken the market's incremental funding concerns. Moreover, the continuous decline in market interest rates has also formed, and the experience of the liquidity bull market from 2014 to 2015 will also stimulate the willingness to increase the amount of incremental funds.

Therefore, the future volume is expected to increase steadily. If the average daily trading volume of the Shanghai stock market is stable at more than 160 billion yuan, then the trend of the A-share market will be more worth looking forward to.

For the time being, sub-new stocks, cloud computing, UHV, 5G and other varieties can still be tracked.

Outlook outlook>>>

  Guosen Securities Strategy Association: A shares will go out of W type in 2019, optimistic about 5G and other sectors

  Venture capitalists focus on the 2030 hotspots of medical, consumer and technology

  Everbright Securities: GEM is expected to usher in better performance in 2019

  Haitong Strategy Yu Yugen: Why is A stock common "spike round bottom"? The current valuation is at the bottom of history

Click to view>>>Spring market investment strategy The latest solution from the ace Top master solution  

(Article source: 澎湃News)

                (Editor: DF358)

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