After a difficult year, investors have many expectations for investment opportunities in the new year. On the first trading day of the Lunar New Year, China Securities Journal invited the top tenfund companyHead of equity investment, talk about the new year's A-share investment approach -
In the new year, is there no way to reclaim the mountains and heavy waters, or is it still another village?
Is it offensive thinking or defensive posture?
Which sectors contain opportunities and which risks need to be circumvented?
It is expected that the internal and external environment of the A-share market will be better than 2018 in 2019, and investment opportunities will be more than 2018. Although the A-share market still has certain fluctuation risks in the short-term, the adjustment cycle is gradually coming to an end.In 2019, the index is expected to show a strong and volatile pattern. It may first stabilize and then rebound. The probability of full-year is still wide fluctuations. The investment opportunities in the second half of the year may be better.
FromcurrencyFrom the perspective of the credit cycle, it is currently in the stage of wide currency, tight credit to broad currency, and wide credit. Historically, the stock market has often performed strongly in the wide credit stage. It is expected that the credit cycle will improve, and the probability of social financing and corporate loan data will rebound after the middle of the year stabilizes. Judging from the law, this means that the A-share market will bottom out 2-3 months ahead of schedule, and the macro economy is expected to see a weak recovery in the second half of the year, driving corporate profits to improve. There will be a better continuous market at this stage.
From the valuation point of view, the A-share market is already at the bottom of the valuation, and the space for large contraction is very limited.For investment opportunities in 2019, you can focus on several areas:First, considering the uncertainty of the macro environment, we can focus on varieties with low volatility and high dividend yield, such as banks and electricity. Second, profits will fall in the middle of resilience, the industry will be divided, and most institutions are fundamental trends. Investors, in structural differences, will look for better-performing sub-sectors, such as 5G; third, valuations are at the bottom, responding to pessimistic expectations, and industries that may improve in 2019, such as real estate and brokerages; Under the transformation of old and new kinetic energy, focusing on the direction of the new economic development, long-term growth and certainty areas, such as new energy vehicles.
E FundVice President Wu Xinrong: The market may have structural opportunities in 2019
Looking back on 2018, the market is in full swing, with large fluctuations and more positive changes. After more than a year of hard work, de-leveraging has achieved phased results, and the path of independent and controllable industrial upgrading is more determined. At the same time, a new round of policy regulation guided by tax cuts and fees reduction is opening. The long-term growth trend of China's economy will not change. The reform and opening up and the release of institutional dividends will bring about an upgrade of economic life and social systems, stimulate the intrinsic potential of the Chinese economy, and open up a new round of economic growth.
Looking forward to 2019, there may be structural opportunities in the A-share market.On the one hand, the valuation of various industries has been at a historical low, and the attractiveness of high-quality stocks is prominent. On the other hand, the bottom of the macroeconomic and fundamentals of various industries still needs further observation, and the overall market opportunities still have to wait. At the same time, with the acceleration of the internationalization of A-shares, the proportion of long-term funds in A-shares and the right to speak will become higher and higher, and the investment ecology of the A-share market will change.The concept of value investment will be more deeply rooted in the hearts of the people.
Harvest FundStock Investment Co-CIO Shao Jian: After the storm, there may be local or rainbow attention to the three main lines
In 2019, investors are very concerned about whether they can see the rainbow after the storm. At the current stage of market development, our judgment is that A-shares will enter a professional and international investment era in the long run. Some enterprises with poor fundamentals, imperfect governance, or high valuations will be in a downward channel for a long time;Enterprises with obvious competitive advantages, standardized governance, high quality of earnings, and low dynamic valuations have long-term investment opportunities.Combined with historical data, if there is no significant internal and external event disturbance in the next stage, the market will gradually improve and there will be structural investment opportunities. The possible directions include:
The first is the quality white horse growth assets.Although such assets have significantly outperformed the market in recent years, most of these companies have certain discounts relative to their international counterparts, and some companies have better growth, so they still have relative investment value. In addition, the marginal funds in the future are mainly from domestic institutions and foreign institutions, so such assets may have relatively good performance.
Second, the value class leading enterprises that may exceed the expected low valuation.Now the capital market gives them relatively low valuations and low earnings expectations, but if the economic pressure is large, it is not excluded that the intensity of the policy will be significantly greater than expected in the middle of this year, when the relevant companies may have an increase in profit expectations, the economy Expected to increase.
In addition,Many of the leading companies in the segmentation growth sector have been downgraded to between 20 and 15 times.From a fundamental point of view, they still have a good room for growth in the long run. This includes both companies with partial technology attributes and emerging service industries.
After 2018 market volatility, 2019 may not necessarily retaliate, but local opportunities are still achievable.
Huitianfu FundDeputy General Manager Yuan Jianjun: Grasping the long-term trend after the risk is released
Looking forward to 2019, the Chinese economy is facing certain downward pressure. On the one hand, external factors may interfere with the operation of the Chinese economy. On the other hand, China's economic transformation and upgrading still faces many problems, including the disappearance of demographic dividends, high-leverage operations by enterprises and local governments, and real estate bubbles. However, in the medium and long-term dimension, the “engineer bonus” brought by high-quality human capital and the institutional dividend of the Chinese economy are still our advantages. The pace of China's economic upgrading and efficiency improvement and entering the stage of high-quality development will not be stagnant.
There are structural investment opportunities for A shares in 2019.Although the profitability of A-share companies may continue to be affected by the macro economy, we have also seen some favorable factors: on the one hand, the current valuation has a high cost performance, as of January 28, 2019, the full A index PE ( TTM) is 13.8 times. On the other hand, as an important starting point for the country to implement the innovation-driven development strategy, the capital market has received a series of policy support including the pilot of the science and technology board. In addition, the overseas factors of the Chinese market continue to increase, and international indices such as MSCI, FTSE Russell and S&P Dow Jones have announced the inclusion of A shares.
In 2019, Huitianfu Fund will focus onExcavate leading stocks with high-quality fundamentals and able to provide investors with sustained and stable returns, while continuing to embrace the high-quality development of China's economy, actively deploying high-end manufacturing and emerging industries, and making medium- and long-term investment layouts.To achieve long-term value growth.
Southern fundDeputy General Manager and Chief Investment Officer (Equity) Shibo: The need for “reverse investment” thinking in the shock market
For 2019, after the market has lowered its expectations sharply, investment may be better. The investment environment in 2019 was much better than that at the beginning of 2018, when good company valuations were at historically high levels. just now,Shanghai and Shenzhen 300The index P/E ratio is only about 10 times, and the lowest P/E ratio in 2008 at the time of the international financial crisis was only 12 times. Therefore, investment opportunities in 2019 may be more than in 2018.
At present, China's economy is already at the key point of transformation and upgrading. More needs to rely on stable leverage, promote reform, and improve efficiency to achieve the switch between so-called new and old growth kinetic energy in the medium and long term, instead of stimulating traditional industries. The risk aspect of the market is mainly concentrated on the risk of corporate earnings decline caused by the downturn in the industry. therefore,The big probability in 2019 is the shock city, and investors need to have the idea of “reverse investment”.When the market rises, we must control the risks; when the market declines, we must see the long-term resilience of the Chinese economy and the room for manoeuvre brought about by the huge endogenous market. Investors are advised to choose a good company, to find high-quality targets in companies with higher ROE, or to find companies with rising ROE.
For investment opportunities in specific industries and sectors,In 2019, although the industry trends in the cyclical industry may be less optimistic, as the current valuations of leading companies in these industries are already reasonable or even low, the stock price will be further lowered, which will highlight the investment value.Early cycle industries such as automobiles and infrastructure will have good opportunities under the policy. High by banks and utilitiesDividendClass companies will be the market's stabilizers with less room to fall. The launch of Kechuang Board will provide historical development opportunities for technology growth companies. For the technology sector, we are more optimistic about the investment opportunities brought by the combination of technology and consumption.
Rich country fund: Moderate defense in the first half of the year, active attack in the second half
In 2019, the downward pressure on the global economy began. On the macro level, the factors of concern include external shocks, geopolitical risks, and rising economic policy uncertainties. However, the US economy is weakening with the marginal effect of fiscal pull, and the Fed’s contraction rate hike is expected to peak in 2019 and see The "last bullet" to the Fed's current round of interest rate hikes.
In 2019, China's economic growth continued downward pressure, policy upwards, and returned to the familiar mix. In the first half of the year, the downward pressure on the economy was superimposed on “credit expansion” and liquidity easing; the profit in the second half of the year may bottom out, the policy will remain accommodative, and the reform will exceed expectations.
In terms of asset allocation, the fundamentals are weakening and pushing bonds.interest rateDownside, but the space is getting smaller, the variables are finance and real estate, and inflation will not become an obstacle; the cost performance of credit bonds is gradually increasing, but credit sinking will be an important choice;interest rateUnder the normal state, the "best time" has passed.
In terms of A-shares, the steady growth signal transmitted by the policy is more clear, but corporate earnings are still slowing down, the market consensus is not yet adjusted, and the test of growth will continue to the nextPerformanceperiod.In the medium and long term, based on the risk premium implied by the current stock price, the allocation value of the stock has already appeared. It was moderately defensive in the first half of the year and actively attacked in the second half of the year.
Huaan FundDeputy General Manager Weng Qisen: Domestic equity market in 2019 is more configurable than 2018
Saying goodbye to the 2018 year of global asset decline, it is expected that the domestic equity market will be more configurable in 2019 than in 2018.
Although the economic downturn may drag down the growth of A-share earnings in 2019, the current equity market valuation has partially included the expectation of low growth rate in 2019. In addition, after the market has undergone pessimistic expectations for external factors in 2018, the stock market has already Unleashed a huge risk expectation.
At present, whether it is vertical allocation of large-scale assets in China, or horizontal comparison of major equity markets in the world, the domestic stock market has a low valuation of asset allocation attractiveness. Looking at the whole year, domestic risk-free interest rates still have downward space, and domestic policy blowing warm wind will help to increase market risk appetite, and the relative advantage allocation value of equity will be further highlighted. In addition, as MSCI, FTSE and Dow Jones global indices will further increase the proportion of China's equity market in the global market, the participation of long-term funds such as foreign capital and insurance will help stabilize the market in a reasonable range. .
Currently in the economic downturn,The industry configuration is based on the policy force, the weak cycle of the upswing, and the reverse cycle as the main configuration direction.In addition, if the Fed withdraws from the interest rate hike beyond expectations, the gold is properly allocated. The investment strategy can adopt a dumbbell-type investment strategy.Optimistic about foreign capital inflows will further select high-value leading stocks and emerging growth stocks arising from the upgrading of China's structure.
Shanghai Dongfang Securities Asset Management Co., Ltd. General Manager Assistant Manager and Fund Manager Gang Dengfeng: The future is expected, the value of equity assets gradually emerges
The short-term downward pressure on the domestic economy is relatively large. In the medium and long term, the aging trend and the rapid increase in production efficiency will coexist. In the future, with the emergence of the engineer dividend and the value of equity assets, the Chinese market has a higher investment cost performance.
In the short-term, the economic growth momentum is not new, the total demand is shrinking, and the economy is oversold. On the one hand, domestic investment growth is slowing down, export pressures appearing, consumption is weakening in a procyclical cycle, and it is difficult to pull economic growth counter-cyclically, and the downward pressure on the economy is greater. On the other hand, the space for policy implementation is still limited, but overall it is better than 2018. From the current point of view, there is still room for the formulation of various policies, and there is still room for coping with the economic downturn. However, policy formulation lags behind the economy, and its effects will not be immediate. The economy may have an oversold risk. But at the same time, we must also see some positive factors. For example, the divergence of the nominal economic cycle between China and the United States will improve, the way of domestic de-leverage will be moderated, and so on.
In the medium and long term, there are two major certainities: the demographic dividend is gradually disappearing and the engineer dividend is continuously released. Although China's current aging rate is not particularly high, the aging rate is very fast, the fertility rate cannot be improved in the short term, and the life expectancy is prolonged. It is expected that China's aging rate will reach 27% of Japan's current level after 20-30 years. Corresponding to the disappearance of the demographic dividend, the release of the engineer’s dividend is full of imagination. China's current innovation and research capabilities reflect the achievements of nearly 80 million highly educated talents in the past 20 years; in the next 10 years, China will have 250 million highly educated talents, and the quantity and quality of innovation it brings are worth looking forward to. . At the same time, the relationship between R&D investment-technical innovation-efficiency improvement is nonlinear, and the contribution of technology and innovation factors is the process of quantitative change to qualitative change. Therefore, we should still have a hopeful and optimistic attitude towards the future.
Judging from the current performance of A-shares, A-shares are currently in the bottom of history. The valuation of all A-shares as of the end of 2018 was 13.7 times PE, which was 12.3% historical point since 2000. After eliminating financial, real estate and two barrels of oil, the A-share valuation was 21.3 times PE, which was 4.3 since 2003. % historical quintile. At the same time, the risk premium also returned to the bottom of the history. The current dividend yield is 2.88%, the 10-year bond yield is 3.22%, and the risk premium is only 0.34%. In addition to a standard deviation in history, it also returns to the bottom area, close to 2012- The location of 2013. At present, China's equity assets have reached the bottom of the valuation. The dividend yield is close to the yield of government bonds and the security margin is high, which provides a certain opportunity for long-term investment. Dongfanghong team willFrom the bottom up, we will choose high-quality industry leaders who are less affected by the macro economy, use the company's growth to withstand the fluctuations of the economic cycle, and look forward to the TMT, finance, real estate, and pharmaceutical sectors in the future.
Xie Zhiyu, Investment Director of Xingquan Fund Management Department: The attractiveness of the equity market is increasing
With the gradual introduction of the economic bottoming policy, the fear of continued downward earnings in 2019 is expected to be phased out. Since the fourth quarter of 2018, the liquidity between banks has tended to be loose, and the overall loose tone is expected to continue in 2019. Although the macro economy is facing a short-term downturn, some long-term problems such as excess capacity and high inventory of real estate have been dealt with in the past few years, and the economy as a whole remains resilient. The deleveraging policy has significantly suppressed the liquidity of the stock market over the past two years.With the easing of deleveraging, the overall activity of the market may have recovered.
At present, the overall valuation of the market has reached a relatively low level in history, partly reflecting the expectation of short-term profit growth. The equity assets have a good price/performance ratio from a long-term perspective. The valuation of some high-quality enterprises is also global. Still cost-effective, the continued inflow of overseas funds reflects the recognition of these high-quality companies. The attractiveness of the equity market is increasing, and we believe that we will see a healthier and more positive equity market in 2019.
GF FundZhu Ping, deputy general manager: In 2019, I hope to have the confidence that quality stocks will open the flower of hope.
In 2019, I hope and have confidence. The investment in 2019 should grasp two key points.The first is to control a reasonable position, and the second is to arrange a high-quality company that can continue to grow under a weak cycle, and pay close attention to early-cycle companies.
We are full of confidence in the long-term prospects of the Chinese economy. Specific to investment, the overall valuation of A shares is close to the bottom area, which is already relatively cheap, especially some high-quality weak-period stocks, it is easy to lead the market out of independent rising market. In addition, after the stock market crash in 2018, investor sentiment has become more cautious, and market fluctuations caused by emotions will be smaller. and so,Stock selection in 2019 is relatively easy compared to 2018. The core is to find high-quality stocks and look for "flowers of hope."
(Article source: China Securities Journal)