Last week, the S&P 500 failed to recover the key technical level of the 200-day moving average, for those who tried to judge whether the US stock market could continue its upward trend.AnalystThis is a hidden worry, and this concern may provide a safe haven for spot gold.
Sundial Capital Research Inc. Jason Goepfert pointed out that history shows that the benchmark index is still weak because it failed to recover the key 200-day moving average. He observed the historical situation that the index was below the moving average for at least a month. The S&P 500 has been running below it since it fell below the moving average on December 4 last year, and was close to the moving average on February 5.
Goepfert wrote in a report last Thursday (February 7): "Even if the Standard & Poor's index rebounds and closes above the 200-day moving average, several attempts have failed. The return for the next two to three months. They are especially low."
Goepfert included 16 examples from 1933 to 2011 in his analysis and found a median return of 4.3% for the next two months and a negative 1.6% for the following year.
Goepfert also said that the future trend may be somewhat pessimistic.
“There is a high correlation between the return of next month and the return of the next year,” he wrote. “This shows that if the rebound fails and the S&P index continues to fall in the next few weeks, then in the long run. It will be a bad omen to look at it."
According to Huitong.com, the current panic index is at a low position in the past four months. The previous trading day closed at 15.72, suggesting that the risk appetite is still optimistic, but if the US stock market weakens significantly in the next few trading days, the market panic index may Re-warming, this will hope to provide safe-haven support for gold prices.
Last week's spot gold correction was supported near the 1300 integer mark. Currently trading at $1313.73 per ounce, pay attention to the resistance around the 1320 integer mark. If you can recover the position, increase the short-term bullish signal; below, pay attention to the 1300 integer mark. Near the support, the middle rail support of the Bollinger Band is also near this position. If it is lost, the bearish signal is added.
At 9:35 Beijing time, spot gold is now at $1313.46 per ounce.
(Article source: Huitong.com)