ICBC Credit Suisse: The current investment price/performance ratio of the A-share market continues to increase
During the Spring Festival, the three major US stock indexes closed slightly higher, while the European and Japanese stock markets fell. The Hong Kong stock market rallied after opening lower on Friday, and the all-day index was basically flat. Although the overseas market risk appetite showed signs of a short-term decline during the Spring Festival, the magnitude was limited. As the previous market has a strong expectation of the global economic slowdown, the recent negative adjustment of economic growth expectations by the UK and the EU, and the unexpected interest rate cut by the Bank of India, the negative impact on investor sentiment should be limited.
More importantly, in the current macroeconomic background of the global economic growth slowdown rather than entering the recession, investors are more concerned about the main central banks such as the Federal Reserve.currencyPolicy operation. Given the recent release of dovish signals by major central banks, the policy's role in the stock market is relatively positive. In addition, from the cross-market flow of global funds, in the macro background of the US non-agricultural employment data exceeding expectations, and some non-US economic growth expectations are lowered, short-termCash flowThe pressure on US stocks has declined, and the inflows to emerging markets have decreased slightly, but the current trend of capital inflows to emerging markets has not shown signs of reversal. Overall, the pattern of risk-on in global capital markets has not changed.
Domestically, the current valuation of the A-share market is at a historically low level, and asset prices have already implied the more pessimistic expectations of investors. In the near future, the policy is warm, and the government's various sectors are stabilizing growth and promoting reforms and other policy signals continue to be released.PerformanceThe forecast has been disclosed in a complete context, and short-term market risk appetite is expected to be in an improvement trend. In the medium and long term, with the further deepening of domestic reform and opening up, the various systems of the capital market are continuously improved and improved, and the optimization of the investor structure, the current investment price performance of the A-share market continues to be prominent.
Oriental Harbor: The current A-share valuation is at the lowest of many assets
The new year of 2019 is new. The major factors that have suppressed the capital market in the past year are gradually weakening: the central bank's RRR cuts began to release liquidity, the confidence of the private economy is gradually being repaired, and the suppression of the administrative supervision of various industries has come to an end. Continued to stabilize and rebound, while 5G, infrastructure, and consumption stimulus policies are gradually increasing. The investment environment in 2019 has become more friendly.
At the same time, Chairman Yi’s appointment first promoted the implementation of the science and technology board. The implementation of the registration system indicates that direct financing of the capital market will play a more important role in China’s economic transformation. However, with the further increase in market circulation, the 28th phenomenon will be even more dramatic. The recent depreciation of the A-shares and the performance of the mines, in the new environment of 2019, the performance of the poor stocks will be further abandoned, but also promote the further improvement of the industry's leading valuation of the performance of certainty. New funds in 2019, whether it isQFIIAnd Hong Kong capital, or insuranceSocial security, will play a more decisive role in this trend, while further reducing the market's volatility.
Although the economic fundamentals of 2019 are facing many uncertainties, the current valuation of A shares is among the lowest among many assets. In 2018, the median valuation of the main board fell from 28.3 times to 16.7 times, lower than the lowest point in 2005, slightly higher than the lowest point in 2008. Based on this, this year may be the strategic layout of the next decade. I hope that the difficult years that will be experienced in 2019 will be the footnotes of the value of the next decade.
Central European Fund: The value of A-share investment in the context of weak global macroeconomics
The economy is down, the policy is on the rise, and global risk appetite is picking up. During the Spring Festival, major global economies released manufacturing in JanuaryPMIEconomic data, the United States exceeded expectations, rebounded, China's slight increase of 0.1% slightly exceeded expectations, the euro zone hit a new low since November 2014, Japan hit a 29-month low. Deviated from the performance of economic data, since the beginning of the yearGlobal stock marketGeneral increase. Governments have begun to release positive signals, and global monetary policies have successively entered a loose cycle, which has increased investor risk appetite. During the Spring Festival, Fed officials made a dovish statement, and the central bank of the European Central Bank, Australia, Brazil, India and other central banks also issued dovish speeches.interest rateThe continued downside of the level will also help to further enhance the confidence of A-share investors.
Since the beginning of the year, the Hong Kong stock market has increased by 8.1% over the same period.Shanghai and Shenzhen 300The index rose by 7.9%. During the Spring Festival, the A-share market was suspended, and Hong Kong stocks rose 0.2% during the two trading days of the holiday. It achieved a good start-up performance and is expected to boost confidence in the first trading day of A-shares tomorrow.The stock market usually reflects changes in the economy in advance, China's economic growth is stable, and the A-share valuation has undergone a full adjustment last year, and it has entered a good mid- and long-term allocation value:
First, the risks of the Chinese economy are controllable. 2019 is the 70th anniversary of the founding of New China, and it is also a crucial year for building a well-off society in an all-round way. "Stable growth" will replace "adjusting structure" as the main line of economic work in the new year. Since the beginning of the year, the central bank has continuously improved liquidity, which is conducive to opening up the transmission mechanism from broad currency to wide credit, and enhancing the medium and long-term confidence of the real economy, especially small and medium-sized private enterprises.
Second, the A-share valuation is currently at an all-time low. Foreign capital is one of the main reasons for supporting the rise of A-shares in 2019. For overseas funds, whether the valuation is cheap or not is a necessary and sufficient condition for the allocation of A-shares. In 2018, the A-share market was significantly adjusted. The Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 fell 25%. The current valuation is only 11 times, far lower than the SP5 index of 19 times. The mid- and long-term investment value of A-shares is obvious.