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The surge of 880 billion A-year pigs will welcome the opening! CITIC Securities shouted: Shanghai stock index hit 3000 points before and after the two sessions!

February 11, 2019 17:30
Author: Jiangyou
source: China Fund News

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[A surge of 880 billion A-year pigs will welcome the opening! CITIC Securities shouted: Shanghai stock index hit 3000 points before and after the two sessions! The first trading day of the Lunar Year of the Pig, the A-share market has ushered in a rare upswing! The major indices went out of the bald and barefoot line, and all the way up, the Shanghai Composite Index closed up 1.36% to 2653.9 points, Shenzhen Composite Index closed up 3.06%, and the Growth Enterprise Index closed up 3.53%. The turnover of Shanghai stock market was 137.3 billion yuan, the turnover of Shenzhen Stock Exchange was 182.6 billion yuan, and the total of the two cities was 319.9 billion yuan.

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Open the door, the big Yang line!

On the first trading day of the Lunar Year of the Pig, the A-share market is welcoming a rare rise! The major indexes have gone out of the bald-headed Yangyang line, and all the way to the high line has risen.The Shanghai Composite IndexIt closed up 1.36% and reported 2653.9 points.Shenzhen Stock ExchangeClosed up 3.06%,GEMThe number closed up by 3.53%. The turnover of Shanghai stock market was 137.3 billion yuan, the turnover of Shenzhen Stock Exchange was 182.6 billion yuan, and the total of the two cities was 319.9 billion yuan.

Today's big rise, all major indices have broken through, the Shanghai Composite Index once again stood in the first half of the year line, the GEM index rose 1300 points,Shanghai and Shenzhen 300The index is the highest since October last year and is expected to recover from the loss of land since October last year.

In terms of sectors,themeStocks and heavyweights strengthened overall, and 5G, pork, and large consumption sectors rose in turn, and the market continued to pick up. 88 stocks rose daily, the two cities rose 3,472 stocks, and the number of stocks fell by less than 100.

Before the Spring Festival, all kinds of good news continued to accumulate, and Zijin, which is also a foreign capital, continued to flow into A shares. The regulatory authorities continued to introduce policies to boost market confidence, encourage capital to enter the market, and cancel the unified liquidation line.Net inflowNearly 5 billion yuan, net inflows over 20 billion since 2019.

In terms of individual stocks, 88 stocks have daily limit, which is also the highest level in the past month. Among them, due to the popular movie "Wandering Earth" at the box office during the Spring Festival, the popularity of the boxbuster; the capital of Beijing culture behind the stock, today's strong daily limit.

Driven by the surge in A-shares, the Hang Seng Index, which opened lower in the morning, also went higher, and closed up more than 0.7% in the afternoon.

  Major index collective breakthrough

  Shanghai Stock Exchange Index is one year after the first half of the line

After the pre-holiday A-shares rose strongly, today's A-shares opened slightly lower, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.19% from the opening, to close at 1.36%, to close at 2653.9 points, the opening price was the lowest price in the session, and the closing price was close. The highest price, out of the bald and barefoot line.

The borrowing power rose sharply today, and the Shanghai Composite Index broke through the half-year line once a year. This is the first time in the first half of the year after hitting a high of 3,587 points at the end of January last year. Li Dazhao, chief economist at Yingda Securities, even said that he had officially announced that A shares entered the bull market from the first half of the year in early 2018 at 3587.

The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index and the Growth Enterprise Market Index also had significant breakthroughs. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index closed at a new high since October last year, just a step away from regaining lost ground since October last year. The GEM index also stood 1300 points for the first time since 2019.

  Subject matter and weight shares

  Pork and 5G led the rise

In terms of sectors, large consumer stocks such as pork and liquor, and technology stocks represented by 5G, real estate finance and other heavyweights rose across the board. Among the pork concept stocks, the young eagle farming, the new Wufeng, the Tangren God, the proud farming, the Tianbang shares, the Zhengbang technology, the Makino shares and many other stocks daily limit; in the 5G concept, there are also Bangxun technology, Eastcom peace, More than 10 stocks such as Dongshan Precision have a daily limit.

  88 stocks daily limit

  "Wandering Earth" concept stocks strong daily limit

The daily limit of nearly 100 stocks is also a rare upswing. Under the performance of individual stocks such as pork and 5G, today's 88 stocks have daily limit.

Among them, the film "Wandering Earth", which was hit by the box office during the Spring Festival, led to a strong daily limit for the listed company's Beijing culture.

  Market value soared 880 billion yuan

Today, the total market value of A shares increased by 45.6 trillion yuan before the holiday, soaring to 46.48 trillion yuan, and the market value surged 880 billion yuan.

  Foreign capital does not stop

  Today, the net inflow is nearly 5 billion yuan.

During the A-share surge, foreign capital continued to flow in a net, and today's net inflow is about 4.6 billion yuan.Shanghai Stock ConnectNet inflow of 1.405 billion yuan,Deep shareThe net inflow was 3.165 billion yuan; the net inflow since 2019 has reached 70.8 billion yuan.

  Good accumulation, more emotions

Around the Spring Festival, all kinds of good information accumulated.

January ChinaNew loanIt is expected to create a new high in a single month. The median forecast of Reuters' comprehensive 30 institutions showed that the new RMB loans in January rose to 2,970.5 billion yuan, nearly three times the chain, slightly higher than the same period last year; the increase in social financing scale is also expected to be a large scale. Up to 3.3 trillion yuan, the effect of the wide credit policy gradually appeared; the growth rate of M2 continued to run at a low level, up slightly by 0.1 percentage points from 8.1% in the previous month.

The China-US High-Level Economic and Trade Consultation was held from February 14 to 15. Liu He, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, vice premier of the State Council, and Chinese leader of the China-US Comprehensive Economic Dialogue, will hold a new round with US Trade Representative Wright Heze and Finance Minister Mnuchin from February 14th to 15th in Beijing. High-level consultations on US economic and trade relations.

Before the Spring Festival, the regulatory authorities also introduced the benefits intensively.

On January 28, the China Insurance Regulatory Commission clearly stated that “encourage insurance funds to increase the shareholding of listed companies, broaden the investment scope of special products, and maintain the stability of the capital market”.

On January 30th, the science and technology board and registration system reform plan landed, and China's capital market system design has made a major breakthrough;

On January 31, the CSRC issued three major news items: First, it is intended to implement counter-cyclical adjustments to the securities company's risk control indicators, and encourage securities companies to invest in equity; second, it is proposed to cancelMargin financingThe current 130% mandatory liquidation line of the business is changed by the securities company and the customer to agree on the minimum maintenance guarantee ratio;QFIIRQFII integrates relevant supporting regulations, expands investment scope, and relaxes access conditions.


  Three big positives push the stock market to rise

  China Merchants FundIt is believed that today's A-share surge is mainly due to the simultaneous fermentation of the three major expectations. First, the MSCI index will announce whether to increase the A-share factor from 5% to 20% at the end of February. This move will bring about RMB420 billion in incremental funds for A-shares this year, under the expectation of continued foreign capital inflows. The trend of white horse stocks such as food and beverage since the beginning of the month has been strengthened. Second, the US trade negotiation group arrived in Beijing three days ahead of schedule to prepare for the third round of negotiations with China. The market is strengthening the expectation of further easing of trade friction between China and the United States. Third, the external liquidity environment continued to improve; the Fed’s interest rate meeting in January was followed by other central banks, and the Bank of India unexpectedly announced a 25 basis point rate cut. .

China Merchants Fund judged the follow-up situation: On the one hand, China Merchants Fund believes that the domestic economy still has downward pressure in the first quarter, including the large uncertainties in Sino-US trade negotiations, and the weakening of external demand may further pressure China's exports. But on the other hand, domesticcurrencyThe policy will remain accommodative, and the bottoming policy will continue to be introduced. The monetary policy tone of the overseas central bankers also makes the liquidity loose. The future needs to pay attention to the latest progress of Sino-US trade negotiations may not be as expected and the economic downturn in the financial quarterPerformanceLess than expected negative impact. On the whole, the market will continue to maintain a bottom-up situation and continue to pay attention to the opportunities of structural market. In terms of sectors, the continuous inflow of foreign capital is worthy of attention, while at the same time focusing on benefiting from lowinterest rateEnvironmental and policy-hedged economic early-stage sectors such as finance, real estate and infrastructure, as well as new infrastructure sectors that benefit from policy support continued to increase (new infrastructure including 5G, artificial intelligence, Internet of Things, etc.)

  CITIC Securities:

  A shares will hit 3000 points before and after the two sessions

For the market after the Spring Festival, CITIC Securities released yesterdayResearch reportIt is believed that the February market is expected to shift from foreign-funded to domestic-funded, with the main feature of the valuation of growth stocks. The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to hit 3,000 points in the short term, and the rebound is expected to continue until around the two sessions.

CITIC Securities believes that from the perspective of the linkage level of global assets, it is still the global risk appetite (emotion)-driven market repair, rather than based on fundamental improvements, and the reversal effect dominates. It is expected that this round of rebound will be characterized by valuation repair. It will continue until around the two sessions. The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to hit 3,000 points. Compared with the pre-holiday level, the short-term expected yield is around 15%, which is expected to be the strongest in the past year. Single month performance.

1) The staged easing of global liquidity and the resonance of domestic policies are the background of driving the market. In January, represented by the Fed’s apparently dovish attitude, global macro liquidity has staged easing; expectations of trade war mitigation will continue to heat up, domestic policies have begun to focus, and the focus is on direct stimulation. The capital market system reform of market activity; in addition to foreign capital, domestic institutions also have obvious room for jiacang.

2)PledgeGoodwill and credit crunch are the three risk points that we remain relatively cautious when we oversold in January. However, we believe that these three risks have already landed and will no longer be an obstacle to the market in the short term.

3) The logic of seeing more rebounds is concentrated on the emotional (risk preference) and liquidity levels, but in the absence of fundamental resonance, we believe that this is only the valuation repair situation in the bottoming stage before the “new starting point for rejuvenation”. After the end of the global risk appetite repair phase and the intensive policy introduction of various departments before the two sessions in China, the market is expected to re-differentiate in mid-March and lack the driving force for sustained and systematic upwards.

For the optimistic sector, CITIC Securities expressed its preference: 1) a strong offensive growth leader, including new energy, 5G and other growth sectors, as well as high-end manufacturing industries such as UHV equipment, lithium battery equipment, railroad equipment and semiconductor equipment. faucet.

2) The leader of the infrastructure sector with stable growth characteristics. The major investment plans that were disclosed by the local governments before the two sessions in the country are expected to produce significant catalysis and undertake phased industry rotation.

3) After the stage of the impairment of goodwill impairment risk, the industry is driven by emotions and games, such as media and computers.

(Article source: China Fund News)

                (Original title: a surge of 880 billion, A-share pig year welcomes the opening! CITIC Securities shouted: Shanghai stock index hit 3000 points before and after the two sessions!)

                (Editor: DF064)

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