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Huaxun Investment: The market is not over but the second stage

March 14, 2019 15:09

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Summary
[HuaXun Investment: The market has not ended but entered the second stage] The basis of this wave of rising prices lies in two: one is the dividend brought about by institutional reform, and the other is the game brought about by the countercyclical regulation of macroeconomic policy. These two foundations still exist, and in terms of the index alone, it is only returning to the level of the same period last year. It is almost faster than the recent increase, but the relative position is still reasonable, so we think the market is not End, but entered the second stage.

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On Wednesday, the two cities took over the fatigue yesterday, and continued to open lower and lower, although the intradaybankThe leader of the equal-weight stocks turned red, but the index fell again due to the impact of the decline in pre-hot stocks including the venture capital sector. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2,905.56 points, down 1.20%, and the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 9417.93 points, down 1.82%.GEMIt closed at 1650.19 points, down 2.58%.

From the perspective of the disk, today's better performances are weighted stocks in the previous period, such as banks, liquor, aviation, cement, steel and petrochemical, coal and oil, etc., showing that in the process of market turmoil, funds began to compensate for such risk preferences. Low stocks. The adjustment of the index in the past two days is ostensibly due to the inventory of off-site funds. However, we believe that the root cause is the excessive increase of the previous index and the release of the risk after the frequent evils of the monsters, because in the current market, The degree of leverage is not high, especially after the fierce decline in the market in 15 years, the precautionary approach at the regulatory level is good for the market as a whole. Our previous articles have analyzed that the basis of this wave of rising prices lies in two, one is the dividend brought about by institutional reform, and the other is the game brought about by the cyclical regulation of macroeconomic policies. From now on, these two foundations are still It continues to exist, and in terms of the index alone, it is only returning to the level of the same period last year. It is almost faster than the recent increase, but the relative position is still reasonable. Therefore, we believe that the market has not ended, but entered the first Two stages.

The second stage we are talking about is a remarkable feature of returning to the company's fundamentals. The most obvious feature of the previous rise is that the stocks are frequent. One of the reasons is that these stocks have been killed in these two years.PerformanceThe plunging of the valuation, the funds involved in the previous intervention are even largeshareholderThey are all deeply involved, so there is a strong willingness to save themselves. The market is heating up in a short period of time, giving the opportunity and space for such stocks to perform. However, such a speculation has no market foundation. It can be said with certainty. In the future, no matter how the index will go, such stocks are no longer necessary for ordinary investors, and the market will also show a clear pattern of individual stocks. As we have analyzed before, the unfavorable side of this year is that the downward pressure on the macro economy remains the same. The performance of listed companies is facing a test. On the positive side, the countercyclical regulation of policies will promote the transformation of new and old growth drivers. Therefore, it is particularly important for a company to achieve growth and even benefit from the counter-cyclical regulation of macroeconomic policies. We believe that with the opening of the science and technology board, emerging industries characterized by innovation have once again become the focus of attention. Central departments including the National Development and Reform Commission and local governments will promote the development of emerging industries as a key task in 2019. Among them, the National Development and Reform Commission revealed that 2019Fixed asset investmentIt will show steady state, and investment in emerging industries will become the main driving force for growth. In the future, we will focus on accelerating policy support and infrastructure investment in areas such as 5G commercial, artificial intelligence, industrial Internet, and Internet of Things. Therefore, in the secondary market, we recommend leading companies focusing on artificial intelligence, big data, and industrial Internet, especially those with first-mover advantage and monopoly power, and then the intensive disclosure of annual reports and quarterly reports may be able to Help investors find such companies through reports.

  Summary of institutional views>>>

  Guotai Junan Huang Yanming: The current market leverage is not high. Checking the capital will not hurt the market.

  The reason for the decline is to check the allocation of funds? Li Xunlei clearly pointed out that the current market is essentially different from 2015!

  Haitong Securities Jiang Chao: A-share valuation is still in a historically low position

  Chen Guangming's latest speech: This time, I have the best chance to slow down. The short-term hype is coming to an end.

  Founder Securities: How long is the bull market? At least the last round of A-share bull market

  Guosen Securities: There is no fundamental support for the bull market? A-share "market bottom" has always been ahead of the "basic bottom"

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(Article Source:Huaxuninvestment)

                (Editor: DF078)

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