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Domestic large aircraft challenges and opportunities coexist

March 14, 2019 15:30
Author: Luo Nan Wang Tianyi
source: Oriental Securities

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Summary
[Domestic large aircraft challenges and opportunities coexist Five-dimensional selection of quality standards] Large aircraft manufacturing is a huge system engineering, on the top of the industrial pyramid, with great strategic significance. Boeing was killed twice in the same model within 5 months, and domestic large aircraft challenges and opportunities coexisted. The strategy of localization of large aircraft is of great significance, and it is recommended to pay attention to related industrial chain supporting enterprises.

  event:On March 10, a Ethiopian AirlinesBoeingThe 737MAX flight crashed shortly after take-off. This is the second air crash after the crash of the same model on October 29, 2018. The Civil Aviation Administration of China issued a notice requesting Chinese domestic transportation airlines to suspend the commercial operation of the Boeing 737MAX8 aircraft before 18:00 on March 11, 2019.

  Core view

  Large aircraft manufacturing is a huge system engineering, which is on the top of the industrial pyramid and has great strategic significance.As a big country, the big aircraft manufacturing combines the top results of multidisciplinary crossover and is known as the "flower of modern industry". The test of the large aircraft industry is the industrial modernization strength of a country and the ability to coordinate the entire industrial system. It is the embodiment of comprehensive national strength. From the economic point of view, the civil aircraft market has a large space, and the supporting industrial chain is long, and the pulling effect on the economy is very obvious. According to COMAC, in the next 20 years, China's airlines will have 9008 new machine demands. By 2037, the Chinese fleet will reach 9,965, worth about 1.3 trillion US dollars. At present, the domestic trunk airliner market is divided by two giants, Boeing and Airbus. The strategy of localization of large aircraft is of great significance.

  Boeing was killed twice in the same model within 5 months, and domestic large aircraft challenges and opportunities coexisted.Air crash model 737MAX8 is the future of BoeingMain forceDelivery models, good sales in the international market. The two air crash models are the same, all of which are newly delivered, and both occur during the take-off phase. Although the cause of the accident is still being investigated, the safety of this model has been greatly questioned and the world has been grounded. On the other hand, after the domestic first flight of the large aircraft C919 in 2017, it is currently in the state of three test flights. In 2019, it will fully test 6 aircraft, and the progress is relatively smooth. Up to now, the C919 has received nearly 1,000 orders at home and abroad, and is expected to be airworthy for 2020 and the first delivery in 2021. Boeing’s air crash is a wake-up call for the aviation industry, and safety is always the first. Domestic large aircraft need to learn from both experience and opportunities.

  Hundreds of domestic enterprises have participated in the manufacture of large-scale domestic aircraft, and the industrial chain has been steadily moving forward with the project.From raw materials to structural parts to the body section, from components and components to avionics systems and electromechanical systems, the entire large aircraft industry chain has extensive participation of domestic companies. For example, Chengfei, Hongdu, Xifei, Shenfei and Hafei respectively undertake the main manufacturing tasks of the C919 large parts.AVIC Electronics,AVICAnd other companies become suppliers of airborne systems and connectors. In addition to the military industry group, there are also many private enterprises with core technical strength and project support. The large aircraft has stringed up the complete domestic aircraft manufacturing industry chain. More than 200 enterprises and 36 universities have participated in the research and development, and the industry chain is accompanied by the project. Advance steadily.

  Investment advice and investment target

  The strategy of localization of large aircraft is of great significance, and it is recommended to pay attention to related industrial chain supporting enterprises.Body manufacturing class:AVIC Aircraft(000768, not rated),Hongdu Aviation(600316, not rated),Zhongzhi shares(600038, overweight),Boyun new material(002297, not rated), etc.;Engine class:Aviation power(600893, not rated),Air navigation control(000738, not rated),Hangfa Technology(600391, not rated), etc.;Airborne equipment class:AVIC Electronics (600372, overweight), AVIC Optoelectronics (002179, overweight), etc.;Material class:Baoti Shares(600456, not rated),Steel research(300034, not rated),Western material(002149, not rated), etc.;Maintenance support category:Hangxin Technology(300424, not rated),Hai Te Gaoxin(002023, not rated),Andaville(300719, not rated) and so on.

  risk warning

The progress of the domestic large aircraft project was less than expected.

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(Article Source:Oriental Securities)

                (Editor: DF358)

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