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And Xintou Gu Xiaoyu: Closely observe the two key indicators of the market

March 14, 2019 15:17
source: And letter

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Summary
[Hexin Investment Gu Xiaoyu Hang: Closely observe the two key indicators of the market] From the perspective of investment strategy, for stable investors, closely observe the persistence of market energy indicators and the effective gains and losses of 3000 points. Short-term investors should also adopt a cautious strategy, and the use of market rhythm is more critical.

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Thursday, Shenzhen and Shanghai A shares despiteSSE 50The index's support, but due to the overall decline in the market, the stocks continued to decline, the market continued to show a downward trend, the final Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2996.69 points, down -36.26 points, closed below 3000 points. From the Shanghai Composite Index, it has formed a dense chip in the 100-point area of ​​3000-3100. In the past 10 trading days, only the Shanghai market has formed about 10 trillion chips in this region in the short term. Stacking, the Shanghai Composite Index lost 3,000 points today, indicating that the above areas have formed an obvious area of ​​heavy pressure resistance. In view of market factors and evolution, if the accumulation of this chip area cannot be resolved, it may form a downward adjustment factor of the market. The decline will increase.

For the 3,000 points of today's market break, our research considers the combined effects of the following factors:

  1. Technical factors

After the Spring Festival, the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Composite Index and the Growth Enterprise Market continued to rise in terms of policies. However, after entering this week, its technical indicators, especially the weekly technical indicators, continued to be purified at a high level. This week, the fifth week of purification was added. The GEM stock index hit a record high, but the technical indicators were weak, forming a top divergence. The KDJ in the stochastic technical indicators showed an overbought situation of 100, so the adjustment of technical factors formed an obvious promotion. Moreover, in this round of the upswing, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, the Shanghai Composite Index and the Growth Enterprise Market all have multiple gaps below, so the impact of the gap pullback has certain adjustment effects.

Tracking and researching the Shenzhen-300 Index futures, the MACD trend in its contract technical indicators appeared on the fork in Tuesday and appeared in the high level of technical indicators. Because the MACD indicator has strong technical indications and the leading role of stock index futures, this In the first stage, the high level of the first dead fork makes the signal that causes the market adjustment more obvious, and it is difficult to change if there is no substantial factor in the stage.

  2, stock index futures technical indicators down the cross

  figure 1:Shanghai and Shenzhen 300Index contract IF1903 operation



  Note: According to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange market data and letter research

  3. Poor macroeconomic data

And the letter tracking macroeconomic indicators found that in January-FebruaryPMIThe index is still below the line of glory, and the display is relatively weak; at the same time, the National Bureau of Statistics released today's January-February economic data show: scale from January to FebruaryIndustrial added valueIt increased by 5.3% year-on-year, with an estimate of 5.6% and a previous value of 6.2%. If the comparison is near the same month, it is at the lowest value, so the impact of macroeconomic indicators also constitutes a recent influencing factor. At the same time, we believe that the future impact of the science and technology board on the uncertainty of the market system also constitutes an internal factor.

  Figure 1: The growth rate of industrial added value above designated size in the past year (monthly year-on-year)

  Note: Data from the National Bureau of Statistics and Letter Research

Market capitalNet inflowIn terms of situation, the data of Oriental Fortune CHOICE shows: two cities on the same dayMain forceThe net outflow of funds was -43.754 billion yuan, which was -61.101 billion yuan yesterday. The net negative outflow of consecutive days was obvious, indicating the stageInstitutional reductionThe behavior is obvious and the number increases.

In general, from the perspective of investment strategy, for stable investors, closely observe the persistence of market energy indicators and the effective gains and losses of 3000 points, and the short-term strategy should be based on wait-and-see; short-term investors should also adopt a cautious strategy. Suitable, and the use of market rhythm is more critical.

  Summary of institutional views>>>

  Guotai Junan Huang Yanming: The current market leverage is not high. Checking the capital will not hurt the market.

  The reason for the decline is to check the allocation of funds? Li Xunlei clearly pointed out that the current market is essentially different from 2015!

  Haitong Securities Jiang Chao: A-share valuation is still in a historically low position

  Chen Guangming's latest speech: This time, I have the best chance to slow down. The short-term hype is coming to an end.

  Founder Securities: How long is the bull market? At least the last round of A-share bull market

  Guosen Securities: There is no fundamental support for the bull market? A-share "market bottom" has always been ahead of the "basic bottom"

Click to view>>>A share of thousands of gold is difficult to buy cattle back The latest solution from the ace Top master solution


(Article source: Hexin Gu Gu)

                (Editor: DF064)

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