The two-day deep adjustment of the A-shares, especially the 3,000-point mark yesterday, was broken for the second time, which made the market mood again turbulent. The term “regulatory layer to strictly check the off-exchange funds, resulting in speculative funds fleeing” is widely spread. However, many industry insiders said that the strict investigation of the capitalization reminds everyone of the stock market disaster after the stock match in 2015, but in fact today's capital allocation is far from the scale of 2015. And lookDragon and TigerIt is not necessarily accurate that the data draws out the funds of the institution.
Strictly check the off-exchange funds and plan ahead
A report on the investigation of the fundraising appeared on the 13th. According to the report, on March 8 (Friday), the China Securities Industry Association convened various securities companies to hold a special meeting on external access and prohibition of fund allocation. Tong Weihua, deputy director of the institutional department of the CSRC, conveyed relevant regulatory information.
The CSRC mainly conveyed six aspects: First, profound reflection and lessons learned from the abnormal fluctuations in the market in 2015;
Second, securities companies must fulfill their main responsibilities and be diligent;
Third, external access must be strictly regulated to check risks;
Fourth, it is necessary to manage the sales department and employees, and must not provide any convenience for the capital allocation;
Fifth, the research department should be objective, rational, and cautious in making speeches to avoid exaggerated and emotional language;
The sixth is to strengthen public opinion monitoring.
Funding company: the scale is only one tenth of 2015
However, according to the new financial report, although the current supervision of the over-the-counter fundraising is on the verge of enemies, many people engaged in the fund-raising business have indicated that the current off-exchange fund-raising is difficult to achieve.
Under the new rules of capital management, it is limited by the leverage requirement. It is difficult for the fund-raising company to get low-cost funds from the bank, and it is no longer possible to take the trust company channel. It uses its own company or funds raised from the outside. The system is also The company's own research and development of the stock sub-sector system, the entire company's capital allocation is also 20 to 30 million, compared with the size of two or three hundred million in 2015, said a person in charge of the company.
After the stock market crash in 2015, the CSRC made a heavy blow to rectify the off-exchange fund-raising business and clean upBrokerThe fund-raising account for illegal and illegal activities focuses on the information technology system with the sub-sector transaction function represented by the Hang Seng HOMS system, which breaks the living space of the third-party asset management system.
Guoyan Junan Institute Huang Yanming also said that the 2015 inventory check was selected at a time when the stock market bubble was extremely high. At that time, the micro-structure of stock holders had deteriorated, and the inventory allocation became the fuse of the stock market crash.But now the degree of leverage in the entire market is not high, and checking the funds will not hurt the market.Drawing on the lessons of 2015, the regulatory authorities will prevent the risk of capital allocation early, which is beneficial to the healthy operation of the market.
The scale of on-site financing is still not high
In addition to over-the-counter funding, on-market financing is currently not at a high level.Oriental Fortune ChoiceThe data shows that the balance of the two cities on March 13 was 889.9 billion yuan, up 24% from the low of 171 billion yuan on February 1, but it was still far from the peak of more than 2.2 million in 2015. More than 1 trillion in January 2018, there are also 110 billion distance.
source:Eastern Fortune Choice Data
In exchange for an algorithm, from the proportion of daily financing purchases to the turnover of the two cities, the latest financing transactions are not high. On March 13th this figure was 9.07%, and at the peak of 2015 it reached 19.43%.
Source: Eastern WealthChoice data
The Dragon and Tiger List shows that the institution flees?
Yesterday, there were reports that the data of the Dragon and Tiger charts since March showed that the organization fled nearly 10 billion yuan in the past 10 days. However, the data shows that in the data of the Dragon and Tiger charts, the net selling of institutions is the norm. From 2014 to now, in addition to 2015, the institutional seats are the natural sellers in the Dragon and Tiger charts.
Oriental wealthChoiceThe data shows that this year, the institutional seats have bought a total of 11.479 billion yuan, sold 18.774 billion yuan, net sales of nearly 7.3 billion yuan, and net sales of 40.9 billion in 2018, net sales of 68.9 billion in 2017.
Source: Eastern Fortune Choice data
Huang Yanming: The future is expected to break through 3200
Huang Yanming believes that 2900-3200 will be an important resistance level, because this is a chip-intensive area. The recent consolidation of the broader market here also proves this feature. However, the market's subsequent resistance is limited, and the future index is expected to break through 3,200.
The 3200 points on the index require the help of the periodic sector, and we can see that this power is being saved. After the market breaks through 3200, there should be room.
Specific to the section, Huang Yanming said that for the investment opportunities in the future, we believe that the first is still technology stocks, followed by cyclical stocks, value sets, growth and singing.
Chen Guangming: Short-term speculation is coming to an end and watching A-shares for a long time
However, there are also market people who come out to pour cold water. For example, the asset management community, Ruiyuan, RuiyuanfundChen Guangming, the general manager, said in a speech recently that the short-term market hype is coming to an end. “Generally, my speech rarely involves short-term markets, because the short-term market is unclear, there are too many things, and when I finish talking, I will hit my face. But the short-term market is really hot, sometimes I don’t think it’s evasive, and I also hope that everyone can be vigilant."
Chen Guangming believes that from the perspective of funds:
First, in fact, the position of the organization is still relatively heavy. The public offering has always been a lot of positions, and the private placements have increased rapidly. Basically, the power has been insufficient, or the capacity is insufficient.
Second, Northbound funds have begun to slow down because they are relatively long-term.
Third, according to my observation, the new funds are not as much as everyone thinks. The researchers have been staring at the number of new accounts, and they will not be announced last week. Last week, it was announced that it was about 210,000 to 310,000. Last week's data was not expected to be announced.
In the past, the balance of the deposit was announced, and it was stopped. Now the number of new accounts has also stopped. It is estimated that we do not want to mislead everyone. How many leeks are coming in, everyone is pushing up prices.
I understand from some brokerage channels that the number of accounts opened is definitely rising, but the range is limited. The channels are different, some may be weaker and some stronger, but the whole is not as imagined or expected, I think it is very normal.
The stock market crash in 2015 is still vivid. After three years, so many new forces have been trained? New leeks grow so fast? I doubt it.
However, Chen Guangming stressed that in the mid- and long-term judgment, this year is the turning point of the year, the turning point of bears and cattle. The most important core reason is that the static estimate is in the bottom area. Although it has risen by 20%, the overall situation is still in the bottom area, but it is already noisy if it rises by 20%.
Second, China's growth will still be there. It is estimated to be lower than 6%, but low-speed growth does not mean that there is no bull market. The growth of the United States has never exceeded 10%, but people have risen for ten years.
Third, the profit of the industrial chain is unbalanced. For example, finance and real estate account for 40% of the total, and with more than 50% of real estate, there is a possibility of adjustment.
Fourth, it has already been fulfilled, and there is room for tax cuts and reductions.
Fifth, foreign capital continues to buy, and foreign investment continues to be very important, which has caused very significant changes to the market ecology. Regarding the phenomenon of foreign investment, I feel that it cannot be overstated. In the next few years, the trend of market ecological evolution will continue, and the process of continuous foreign investment will be highly valued.
Li Xunlei: Looking forward to spring cattle
Another big 佬 Li Xunlei also gave a speech recently, optimistic about the future trend of A shares. Li Xunlei said that the spring of the capital market was not driven by corporate profits, but by policy shifts and reform expectations.
Moreover, unlike in the past, supporting the capital market in the past mainly relied on stimulating demand (suspendedNew sharesThe issuance and expansion of fund supply), and this time the launch of the "pilot registration system" of the science and technology board, in essence, is to reform the capital market, reform and correct the existing defects and deficiencies in the past 28 years. repair.
In 2000, our countryGDPThe total amount is less than 9 trillion yuan, but now it has exceeded 90 trillion yuan, but the stock price index is almost in place. The fundamental reason is that the capital market lacks the mechanism of survival of the fittest. Even if the policy is stimulated again, investors will no longer care. Only the promotion of the basic institutional reform of the capital market is the only option to increase the proportion of direct financing.
Li Xunlei emphasized that the reason for not pessimistic about the future Chinese economy and optimistic about China's capital market is not that the fundamentals of economic and financial data will be reversed today or in the future, but that it has seen fewer choices and chosen the right path. The probability has increased.
For investors' reference only, does not constitute investment advice
The stock market is risky, investment needs to be cautious
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