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Soochow Securities: Shanying Paper Buy Rating

April 15, 2019 09:19
Author: History Where can Marlee

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The company released the 19th quarter report: During the reporting period, the company's revenue was 5.216 billion, compared with -3.74%;Net profit458 million, compared with -24.33%; net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is 345 million, -29.54% year-on-year, of which non-recurring gains and losses are mainly government subsidies.PerformanceGrowth is in line with expectations.

The non-ton profit was better than the previous one, and the previous lows have already appeared. The company's Q1 raw paper output was 1,151,100 tons, and the sales volume was 1,200,900 tons. The sales volume also decreased by 4.34% compared with the same period of last year. The sales volume of corrugated box carton was 280 million square meters, and the sales volume increased by 6.46% over the same period. According to the sales situation disclosed by the company, we expect that the sales volume of the original paper of the 19Q1 Shanying headquarters will be 750,000 tons, and the sales of Nordic Paper and Fujian Liansheng will each be 80,000 tons and 200,000 tons, thus measuring the internal profit of this department is not 260 yuan. (78 yuan more than the 182 yuan of 18Q4), the overall deduction of non-ton net profit of 335 yuan. As of now, the price of cardboard and corrugated paper is 4343 yuan / ton, 3558 yuan / ton, down 4.40%, 6.12% compared with the beginning of the year.

Financial expenses have fallen sharply, Maointerest rateShort-term pressure. During the reporting period, due to the year-on-year increase in raw material costs and the decrease in product prices, the company's comprehensive hairinterest rate19.78%, down 1.49pct year-on-year. During the period, the expense ratio increased slightly to 13.39% (+1.97pct), of which the sales expense ratio was 4.50% (+0.07pct), the management and R&D expense ratio was 7.36% (+3.9pct), and the financial expense ratio dropped significantly by 2.01pct to 1.53%. The main reason is the companycurrencyFunds increased by 1.58 billion yuan compared with the beginning of the year, interest income of 100 million yuan increased significantly compared with 25 million yuan in the same period of last year, and financial expenses decreased by 112 million to 0.8 billion.

The difference in internal and external waste price increases, focusing on the company's cost advantage. As of April 13, 19, the national single-ton price rose to 2,299 yuan, while the average external waste price was 1,208 yuan, continuing the downward trend of the year-to-date. The continuous expansion of the internal and external waste price difference makes the proportion of higher external waste quotaShanying PaperThe cost advantage is highlighted. The quotas issued by the early solid waste management center show that the first four batches of waste quotas of 19Q1 were approved for 655,100 tons. We estimate that the ratio of waste to waste is about 5:5, which makes the company cost advantage. Higher than peers. Taking into account the continuous restrictions on external waste quotas, the price difference between the national waste price and the external waste price is expected to continue, and the company's cost advantage will continue to be highlighted.

The capacity continues to expand and the competitive advantage is obvious. The company's existing production capacity is about 5 million tons. It is expected that the new production capacity of 1.2 million tons of packaging paper will be put into production in September 2019. The company's production capacity continues to expand and its leading position. In addition, the waste paper pulp project of Phoenix Paper will be improved and put into production in the second half of the year, which is beneficial to the company to ensure stable supply of waste paper raw materials, which is of strategic significance.

The industry chain is vertically closed and its competitiveness is further strengthened. The company's industrial chain continues to extend downstream, and through the industrial Internet to carry out vertical integration of the industry, fostering intelligent packaging, Internet-driven service capabilities, the company is now piloting the industrial Internet transformation of the packaging business in the East China region, while the company plans to rely on Maanshan and Haiyan The papermaking base further enhances the market share of the downstream industry.

  profit predictionAnd investment rating: It is estimated that the company's revenue in 19-21 will be 279.73/307.98/341.72 billion (+14.8%/+10.1%/+11.0%), and the net profit of returning to the mother will be 29.98/33.47/3.564 billion (-6.4%/+11.6%) %/+6.5%), corresponding to PE is 6.38X/5.71X/5.36X, maintain "Buy" rating!

Risk warning: downstream demand continues to be weak and raw material prices fluctuate significantly.

(Article Source:Soochow Securities)

                (Editor: DF358)

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