Stimulated by positive data on Monday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened sharply higher andbank,InsuranceUnder the leadership of Shanghai Free Trade and other sectors, it once rose more than 2%, but the performance of heavyweights did not get too much response from the market. Then the stock index fluctuated and the index turned green. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,177.79 points, down 0.34%, and the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10053.76 points, down 0.78%.GEMIt closed at 1666.90 points, down 1.70%.
There were two sets of figures on the weekend that caught the attention of the market: First, the March announced by the central bank.currencyData show that RMB loans increased by 1.69 trillion yuan, an increase of 577.7 billion yuan year-on-year. Driven by loans and local government special bonds, the social financing increase in March reached 2.84 trillion yuan, far exceeding market expectations. In the first quarter, the increase in social financing scale was 8.18 trillion yuan, 2.34 trillion yuan more than the same period of the previous year. It can be seen that financial support for the real economy is very strong. Second, the General Administration of Customs released data. In the first quarter, China’s trade in goodsimport and exportThe total value was 7.01 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, achieving a smooth start, of which exports were 3.77 trillion yuan, up 6.7% year-on-year; imports were 3.24 trillion yuan, up 0.3%; trade surplus was 529.67 billion yuan, up 75.2%. Especially worth mentioning is that China's export growth rate exceeded expectations in March, achieving double-digit growth.
Judging from the above data, China's macro economy showed a strong signal of stabilization in the first quarter, which directly stimulated the sharp opening of the stock market today, but the subsequent performance seems to be unsatisfactory. We believe that on the one hand, because of insurance, banking,BrokerEqual-weight stocks did not drive the market's profit-making effect. The market's long-term sentiment was not as expected. Therefore, when the brokerage stocks fell back, it led to the fall of the index, especially the Shenzhen Component Index and the Growth Enterprise Index. On the other hand, In the recent article, we analyzed several potential pressures in the market. The first is the profit-taking pressure accumulated after the rapid increase in the previous period. The second is the pressure on the reduction of industrial capital. The third and most important one is accompanied by As the economy stabilizes and the data improves, the market is worried that the counter-cyclical adjustment policy will change.
Therefore, we believe that the current index has already comprehensively reflected the impact of various types of information. We should neither expand the positive effects brought about by the positives nor expand the potential negative factors without limit. The current repeated shocks are the normal fluctuations of the market. It is a retreat for the sharp rise after the Spring Festival, and there is far no signal of a medium-term turnaround risk. In terms of operational strategy, as we have been suggesting recently, investors should weaken their focus on the index and focus more onStock baseThe judgment of this side comes up. On the one hand, as far as possible to avoid companies with significant reductions, especially before there has been a large increase, on the other hand, it is necessary to choose individual stocks based on the company's growth, we believe that "technologyNew baseThe high-quality stocks in the artificial intelligence, big data, and industrial Internet sectors that are characterized by the “building” will highlight long-term value, and investors can actively pay attention.
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