The global consumer module leader, horizontal expansion of the power battery market, has unlimited potential. The company started from the consumer pack in 1997 and has won the favor of domestic and foreign mainstream enterprises. At present, it is the leader of domestic consumer modules, with a global market share of nearly 25%. In 2011, the company expanded its power pack business. In 2015, it began to develop power batteries. With years of power pack and BMS foundation, it entered the domestic first-line automaker Geely and overseas car Renault Nissan supply chain in 2019, and gradually grew from a consumer module leader to a power battery. Rookie. The company continued to explore new profit points in the lithium battery industry and build a lithium battery carrier with an annual revenue of 20.34 billion yuan and a compound growth rate of 52% in 2009-18.
Power battery capacity release + successfully cut into the first-tier car supply chain, the company enjoys the rise of second-tier battery companies. The market's high-quality ternary power battery capacity is insufficient, and the supply is concentrated, and the car companies are eager to cultivate the second supply.XinwangdaIn 15 years, the power battery research and development institute was established. The core team came from well-known battery companies such as ATL, and the research and development personnel exceeded 800. After three years of research and development, the company began to develop the power battery market in 18 years. The product is a high-performance square ternary. In the early 19th, it successfully cut into the Geely supply chain. Geely evaluated high. In the second quarter, it will start supporting a large number of Geely Emgrand EVs. Received Renault's big orders and actively expanded European and other car companies. In terms of production capacity, 2gwh will be invested at the end of the second quarter. At that time, the production capacity will reach 4gwh. At the same time, the company plans to invest 30gwh in Nanjing, and plans to invest 12 billion yuan. The first phase of 8gwh will start production in the end of 19th. In 18 years, the company's power battery shipments are 0.2gwh, which is mainly used for Liuqi. In 19 years, it is expected to be driven by Geely, Liuqi and Yundu. The shipment volume is expected to reach 2gwh or above, and the profit and loss balance is expected in 19 years.
Mobile phone PACK business is the world's first, self-powered core + shaped battery to increase the profit of a single machine. The company's mobile phone battery pack global market share of 20-25%, andDesai batteryStaying in the top two in the world, isappleThe main suppliers of Huawei, oppo, millet, and vivo have a penetration rate of 25-40%, and the brand recognition is extremely high. Global mobile phone sales have continued to grow negatively. It is expected to bring about the growth of mobile phone sales in the 5G era in 2020. At the same time, the company pays attention to endogenous growth, self-powered core lifting hairinterest rate, 18 years self-powered core ratio reached 10%, plate hairinterest rate15.35%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points year-on-year. It is expected to further increase to around 20% in 19 years, further increasing the gross profit margin.
The notebook business continued its high growth trend, and the intelligent hardware-bound Xiaomi ecological chain grew steadily. The soft pack battery currently accounts for about 75% of the notebook battery, and is expected to increase to 90% in the next two years. The company will continue to enjoy the dividend from the industrial chain to the inland. The company has already suppliedappleNotebooks such as Xiaomi are expected to increase their revenue by 70% this year to about 3.5 billion. Xiaomi Ecological Chain is the world's largest intelligent hardware platform, which will lead to great growth. As a core supplier of Xiaomi, the company is expected to benefit from it. The revenue of intelligent hardware segment in the 18-year period is 3.06 billion, up 308% year-on-year. It is expected that the scale of the plate will be maintained in the next three years. More than 30% growth rate.
profit predictionAnd investment rating: We expect the company 2019-21Net profitIt is 10.26/14.89/21.08 billion yuan, the EPS is 0.66/0.96/1.36 yuan, and the corresponding PE is 19.29/13.30/9.39 times. Considering that the company is a leader in lithium battery modules, has a good technical reserve, and the power battery customers are progressing smoothly, we give the company 28 times PE in 2019, corresponding to the target price of 18.5 yuan, and the first coverage is given a "buy" rating.
Risk warning: battery and material prices fluctuate and industry competition is intensifying.
(Article Source:Soochow Securities)