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Huachuang Securities: First Open Share Buy Rating

May 15, 2019 08:55

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Event:

May 8th,First opening sharesThe sales data for April was announced. In April, the contracted amount reached 12.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of +70.3%; the contracted area was 415,000 square meters, up +53.1% year-on-year; the cumulative amount of contracted funds in January-April was 22.93 billion yuan, up +31.4% year-on-year. The cumulative contracted area was 831,000 square meters, up +28.0% year-on-year.

Comments:

April sales of 12.7 billion yuan, +70% year-on-year, cumulative sales of 22.93 billion yuan in January-April, +31% year-on-year. The company realized a contracted amount of 12.66 billion yuan, +117.3% from the previous month, +70.3% from the same period of last year. The monthly increase was 24.9pct, which was significantly higher than the average price of the 50-year-old 50-room enterprises in April, which was +23.9%. The contracted area was 415,000 square meters, which was +81.4% from the previous month and +53.1% from the previous month. The increase was 11.6pct from the previous month. The performance of the 45 cities in April which was better than our high frequency tracking was +34.2% in the same period of last year; the average selling price was 30,528 yuan/square meter, which was +19.8% from the previous month and +11.2% from the same period last year. From January to April, the company realized a total contracted amount of 22.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of +31.4%, and completed a sales plan of 22.7% at the beginning of the year; the cumulative contracted area was 831,000 square meters, up +28.0% year-on-year. The cumulative average selling price was 27,589 yuan / square meter, an increase of 3.4% over the 18-year average price. In view of the fact that 75% of the company's land bank is located in the strong first- and second-tier cities, and the land bank in Beijing accounts for 31% of the total land bank, in the current 1st and second-tier markets, it is expected that the whole year will be degraded or exceeded expectations in the past 19 years.

The important target of Beijing's national reform, actively explore diversified incentive mechanism, and highlight the advantages of integration of domestic capital in Beijing

In the past 18 years, the Beijing Municipal Government has successively issued the three-year national action plan and supporting documents.North HuachuangThe equity incentive plan was approved,Electronic cityThe draft of the equity incentive was introduced, and the speed of Beijing's national reform promotion was significantly accelerated. On the one hand,First opening sharesHe has successively launched two rounds of cash incentive programs, which belong to enterprises that explore diversified incentives earlier in state-owned enterprises. It can be said that the company is born with market-oriented reform genes; on the other hand, the company is in total assets, net assets,Operating incomewithNet profitAll the indicators are far ahead of other Beijing state-owned housing enterprises, giving them a clear advantage in the horizontal integration of 14 state-owned housing enterprises in Beijing. The recent opening of the Group's consolidated real estate group may also indicate the beginning of integration, and the company is expected to further expand. High quality soil storage in Beijing.

Investment suggestion: In April, sales will be beautiful, and Beijing will change its important target, reiterating the “strong push” rating.

  First opening sharesAs a state-owned housing company in Beijing, in the context of the acceleration of the Beijing national reform, relying on the rich experience of incentive programs and the significant advantages in the integration of state-owned assets in Beijing, it is expected to be an important target for the Beijing-based reform; the company since 2007ReorganizationAfter the listing, we actively changed, deepened in Beijing, and actively expanded outside Beijing, and promoted the rapid increase of sales. It became the first domestic billion-owned local-owned housing enterprise in China. At present, the company's layout is dominated by the strong one and two lines, and belongs to the king of Beijing earthenware, one or two lines. The recovery of the transaction gave it strong sales flexibility. We maintain our forecasted earnings per share for the year 2019-20 of 1.41, 1.63 yuan, corresponding to 6.3 times PE for 19 years, 55% for NAV, 9.0 times for 19-year target PE, and maintain target price of 12.67 yuan, reaffirming "strong push" Rating.

risk warning:real estateMarket regulation policies exceeded expectations and industry funds were less than expected.

(Article source: Huachuang Securities)

                (Editor: DF386)

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