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And letter investment Gu Xiaoyu Hang: The energy indicator is the key to whether the rebound can continue

May 15, 2019 15:26
source: And letter

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Summary
[And letter investment Gu Xiaoyu Hang: The energy index is the key to whether the rebound can continue] Today's market shows a general rebound and rebound, and whether the subsequent rebound can be maintained or its strength depends on the market volume. From the perspective of investment strategy, for stable investors, closely observe the changes in the market OBV indicators, and the short-term strategy should be the main focus; short-term investors can adopt the medium and low-priced categories with short-term adjustments and performance growth. Individual stocks, while paying close attention to the variety of products, the flexible use of market rhythm is more critical.


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On Wednesday, Shenzhen-Shanghai A-shares showed a general rebound and the Shanghai Composite Index closed at the 10-day moving average. The trading volume of the two cities was slightly larger than yesterday. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2938.68, up 55.07 points, Shenzhen Chengzhi closed at 925.83 points, up 220.67 points; ShenzhenGEMThe number closed at 1526.69 points, up 34.09 points, and the total transaction volume of the two cities was 512.785 billion yuan. The market is characterized by a general rebound.

From the perspective of today's sector, most of the industry sectors showed rebound characteristics, while the wine sector led the gains; and from the decline, mainly concentrated in ST stocks. If you look at the performance of consumer stocks, you actually face oneThe total retail sales of social consumer goodsThe data fits with a limited background, so subsequent observations need to be observed.

Today's market is mainly reflected in the following, specifically:

1. According to the National Bureau of Statistics today's macroeconomic data, the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (April 2019)PMI) is 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and continues to remain in the expansion range; in April 2019, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 3,058.6 billion yuan, a nominal increase of 7.2% year-on-year (excluding the actual increase of 5.1% after the price factor, unless otherwise specified) Both are nominal growth); exports in April increased by 3.1% year-on-year, and imports increased by 10.3% year-on-year.

2, according toBrokerChina Information Display: On May 14th, Shenzhen Microchip Biotechnology Co., Ltd. responded to the second round of inquiry of the Shanghai Stock Exchange. This is the first company to enter the second round of inquiry and reply. From the submission of the application to the second round of inquiry, there is only one before and after. Many months.

3. According to the "Securities Times" information: Li Chao, vice chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, announced on the morning of May 15 that the 515 National Investor Protection Promotion Day was established. On May 15th each year, the China Securities Regulatory Commission will organize and mobilize all parties across the country to actively carry out various forms of investor protection and publicity activities.

4. According to the statistics of the Central Plains Real Estate Research Center, as of May 14, the total amount of land acquired by 29 real estate enterprises exceeded 10 billion yuan in the year, and there were only 24 in the same period of 2018, compared with 18 in the same period of 2017. among them,Sunac ChinaThe amount of land acquired is as high as 62.6 billion yuan.Country GardenUp to 46.5 billion yuan,New Town HoldingsIt reached 42.2 billion yuan. In addition, 12 real estate companies including Vanke and China Shipping have more than 20 billion yuan.

From the analysis of macroeconomic data, it is necessary to be vigilant about the consumption of this category, especially in the high-end category. Although many varieties have remained strong in the recent stage, the consumption data show that in April 2019, the total retail sales of social consumer goods was 3,058.6 billion yuan. A nominal growth of 7.2% year-on-year (a real increase of 5.1% after deducting the price factor) clearly reflects a change in the consumer market, so it is recommended to avoid it.

From the point of view of the market's rise and fall on the day, Shanghai is 1444:52; Shenzhen market is 2039:115; GEM is 695:46; this shows that the rising stocks on the day are much higher than the decline, which is a general feature of the general market.

Market capitalNet inflowIn terms of circumstances,Oriental wealthCHOICE data shows: two cities on the dayMain forceThe net inflow of funds was 9.496 billion yuan, showing positive values, but it is still inferior to the recent net outflow.

Overall, today's market is showing a general rebound and rebound. The subsequent rebound can be maintained or its strength depends on the market volume. From the perspective of investment strategy, for stable investors, closely observe the changes in market OBV indicators, and the short-term strategy should be based on the wait-and-see; short-term investors can take short-term adjustments on dips and concerns.PerformanceThe growth of medium and low-priced stocks, while paying close attention to the variety of products can match the situation, the flexible use of market rhythm is more critical.

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(Article source: Hexin Gu Gu)

                (Editor: DF078)

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