First, the market view may be biased
The broad market index is strong, and the shrinking volume indicates that the current market is still based on technical anti-dumping. The short-term market is still in the bottom stage of the left side. It is expected that the market will still be repeated at low levels, and the further increase will continue to be limited.
The market is at the bottom of the left side of the oversold rebound stage. After the oversold rebound, the overall need still needs to oscillate and digest confidence. Our view is still that after the institutions with private equity as the absolute income assessment method are stuck in the high position at the end of April, from the perspective of behavioral mechanism, such institutions may choose to use the rebound to reduce the position in the short term. From a medium-term perspective, due to the willingness of passive allocation funds to enter the market, it can be determined that the downward adjustment of the market has been limited.
Whether the incremental funds are willing to enter the market, whether the stock funds are willing to work together to do more, this is the basis for the mid-term rebound. From the current market capital ecology, the incremental funds mainly come fromNew baseJin Jiancang, conservative institutions bargain hunting, and the passive configuration requirements brought by MSCI weight adjustment, the current market environment, such institutions are still based on passive allocation strategy. From the perspective of stock funds, the sentiment of short-term panic has been released, and the stock funds are currently only under pressure to digest unreliable chips.
On the whole, today's market rebound is in line with our expectations, and we do not rule out the kinetic energy of the short-term opening tomorrow. However, it should be emphasized that from the perspective of capital laws such as hot money and two financing, the current market is still at the bottom of the left side with repeated stages, that is, the short-term rebound is difficult to maintain. Therefore, investors who recommend ultra-short-term games are expected to take profits in the short-term, while mid-line investors can continue the passive allocation strategy in the case of limited systemic risk.
(Article source: Guangzhou Bandung)