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Qin Hong: Popularity is becoming more active. The short-term A-share market is expected to step out of the adjustment quagmire.

May 15, 2019 18:15
Author:Qin Hong
source: 澎湃News

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Summary
[Qin Hong: Popularity is becoming more active. The short-term A-share market is expected to step out of the adjustment quagmire] On Wednesday, the A-share market has seen a trend of high opening and high. Among them, the main line of consumption, represented by liquor stocks, has been active repeatedly, gathering popularity and stabilizing emotions. The short-term does not rule out that the index's center of gravity moves up further and quickly recovers the possibility of a downward gap in early May. In the operation, it is recommended that market participants can still hold shares. As for the direction of position allocation, on the one hand, it actively tracks the head stocks of the main consumer line, and on the other hand, it is actively investing in the heads of the technology field of the main line of industrial upgrading.

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On Wednesday, the A-share market showed a trend of high opening and high. Among them, the main line of consumption, represented by liquor stocks, has been active repeatedly, gathering popularity and stabilizing emotions.

Driven by this, the Shanghai Composite Index returned to the top of the 2900-point integer mark.Northbound fundsAlso changed the net outflow situation in the previous period, on WednesdayNet inflowNearly 1.3 billion yuan, it has become a new marginal incremental fund in the A-share market.

  The main line of consumption has become the mainstay

This year, the main consumer line represented by liquor stocks has become the pillar of the A-share market, which has not only spawned trillions of market capitalization.Guizhou MaotaiAnd also led to the revaluation of the leading varieties of the main consumer line. Because the dairy industry, beer and other segments of the original major consumer line are relatively full of competition and profitability is not outstanding, market participants are not willing to give high valuations. The price-earnings ratio of leading varieties in such segments generally falls. At around 20 times.

With the solidification of the industry pattern and the withdrawal of small and medium-sized enterprises, whether it is dairy or beer, or even sub-sectors such as liquor and condiments, there has been a high concentration of market share in the industry, which means these heads The profitability of the company, especially in terms of return on equity (ROE), is rising year after year. Therefore, market participants reassessed the valuation coordinates of such stocks, and the price-earnings ratio data quickly rose to 30 times from 20 times in previous years. If you overlay the 2018 Annual Report and the 2019 Quarterly ReportPerformanceOver-expected factors, such stocks ushered in Davis double-click. Therefore, the K-line pattern of such stocks is currently the strongest in the A-share market.

Moreover, as the weighting factor of A-shares into the MSCI index increases from 5% to 10%, and the further opening up of the capital market in which A-shares are backed up, the enthusiasm of foreign investors for the allocation of A-shares is expected to be re-ignited. And because past experience shows that foreign capital enters A-shares, the first major allocation is the main line of consumption. Therefore, it can be said that the follow-up buying power of the main consumer line can still be expected. In other words, the strong and strong, will be the logic and driving force of the future stock price deduction of the major consumer line, which means that the main line of consumption will remain the stabilizer and the mainstay of the A-share market, which in turn can lead to the strong main line of consumption. And even the A-share market is also expected to further strong expectations.

  The main line of industrial upgrading is ready to go

What's more, the relevant varieties of science and technology innovation fields corresponding to the main line of industrial upgrading in China are expected to grow. Moreover, in recent years, under the stimulation of mobile Internet dividends such as cloud computing and big data, the competitive strength of the leading varieties in these segments has been greatly enhanced, and the profitability and research investment of performance have also been rising. For example, toZhongke ShuguangFor the field of supercomputers,Baoxin SoftwareThe representative cloud computing segment has strong competitive strength, strong profitability and rapid performance growth data.

In this case, as time goes by, especially after the main consumer line pushes the stock index further to a certain height, for example, approaching the downward gap of the beginning of May, the high-elastic technology stocks need to be driven. The stock index has rallied to recover the gap. Therefore, the main line of technology stocks is gaining momentum at this time, and it is expected to become a strong engine for the gap in the A-share market.

Therefore, the short-term does not rule out that the index's center of gravity moves up further, and quickly recovers the possibility of a downward gap in early May. In the operation, it is recommended that market participants can still hold shares. As for the direction of position allocation, on the one hand, it actively tracks the head stocks of the main consumer line, and on the other hand, it is actively investing in the heads of the technology field of the main line of industrial upgrading.

(Article source: 澎湃News)

                (Editor: DF358)

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