Conjecture: It is not appropriate to be blindly optimistic in the short term
On April 18th, affected by the Central Bank's downward adjustment, the stock indexes of the two cities opened higher, and then the diving lowered. In the afternoon, the market rebounded and the subject stocks pulled up.GEMReturn to 1800 points. At the close,Shanghai indexReported 3091.31 points, up 0.80%; Shenzhen Component Index reported 10491.15 points, up 0.92%; GEM refers to 1822.26 points, up 2.16%.
On the disk, the concept of the chip rose by nearly 7%, with nearly 20 shares of Xingsen Technology, Dongtu Technology, Taiwan Semiconductor, National Technology, Btextronic Technology, Ziguang Guoxin, etc.; domestic software sharply higher, Tai Chi, China's software limit . Subjects such as semiconductors, satellite navigation, information security, cloud computing, electronic payment, industrial interconnection, artificial intelligence, and Internet of Things were all strong. In addition, the Hainan plate continued to adjust, with Hainan Ruize, Straits shares, Luo Niushan and Haiqi Group dropping.
For the central bank announced on the 17th to lower the standard, Qianhai Yang Delong open source said that the central bank downDeposit reserveThe rate boosted market confidence. The market outlook is expected to start a rebound and gradually repair the previous decline.
Southwest Securities analysts believe that the current RRR cut is the first time the central bank has lowered the benchmark in two years. The current RRR cut will release 400 billion yuan of liquidity to the economy. The RRR cut reflects the firm determination of the central bank to maintain the real economy and stability of the financial market. Under the condition of a strong exchange rate, the impact of the RRR cut on the exchange rate will be reduced, and the domestic economic growth will have a slowing trend. The reduction will help maintain the stable operation of the economy. At the same time, this reduction will increase market confidence and increase market liquidity, which is conducive to the growth of the industry. We are optimistic about military, computer and other industries, as well as high-quality targets with independent core intellectual property rights and import substitution capabilities in the fields of electronics and communications. We are optimistic about the rebound performance of banks and real estate industries.
Jin Bailin Consulting stated that in the afternoon, the A-share market stabilized and stabilized. On the one hand, due to the large-scale counter-inflation of chip stocks, the market sentiment quickly rose. On the other hand, some pharmaceutical stocks have also become increasingly active, and the energy for the market to stabilize and collect has gradually gathered. It seems that below 3100, it is not easy to be overly pessimistic.
Money guess: Capital differences still exist
Today's market hotspots are concentrated in the chip and semiconductor sectors. The combination of capital makes the relevant sectors perform strongly. The overall market rebounds, while the previous hot spot Hainan plate continued to fall sharply after yesterday's decline. The sentiment has not been fully restored. Differences still exist.
Analysts believe that the domestic chip sector soared today, and before the Hainan plate is almost similar to the collective limit of the news after the news is favorable, over-concentration of funds in a sector is also a reflection of the market sentiment is vulnerable to funds, once the kill, the risk Large, it will also have an adverse impact on other hot spots in the venue. In case of disagreement on operating funds, it will mainly follow the strong hot spots in the venue.
Soochow Securities said that in the short term, based on the increase in uncertainties, the market will be phased in the defense sector. However, in the medium term, the main market outlook of the market will gradually shift to growth. The core direction is the emerging manufacturing industry, and the key clue to finding a direction for growth is to look for new dominant industries in the future, combining technological diffusion, economic dominance, and development. Sustainability, the semiconductor industry, new energy vehicles, smart manufacturing and military industry and other industries deserve attention.
Hot Conjecture: Focus on Domestic Alternative Turning Opportunities
Yesterday, the ZTE incident led to a sharp decline in the market, the market began to return to the rational mood under the good support, the afternoon focused on the domestic substitution of semiconductors, integrated circuit plate began to ferment, in the context of rising trade frictions, localization of critical areas is imminent, domestic There is a favorable policy expectation in the alternative field, and the capital market outlook is expected to move within the relevant sector.
According to the analysis, domestically produced alternatives are specific to the industry, mainly including aerospace, semiconductors, integrated circuits, computer hardware and software, bio-pharmaceuticals, high-end equipment, and medical equipment. The relevant sector has recently undergone a certain degree of adjustment. Within the day of hotspots, lighter positions are mainly short-lived, and ambushing other unstarted sectors may make the index unprofitable and even have a losing effect.
(The content of the article is for reference only. For the stock mentioned in the article, it does not constitute investment advice. Investors should therefore handle this risk at their own risk.)
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