Contingency: July A shares or usher in profitable opportunities
After experiencing an extreme market last week, the two cities in the last trading day in June ushered in a strong rebound, sweeping away the haze of previous trading days, subject stocks broke out across the board.GEMRecovered 1600 points, rose by more than 4%.Shanghai indexThis month it fell 8.01% and fell 13.90% in the first half of this year. Regulatory pressure to send high speculation and transfer of funds to the enthusiasm of passion, triple-risk and then limit, harvest four-plate. The first shot of the semi-annual report's disclosure has been started, and Jiuhua Tourism has won the top spot.
As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index reported 2847.42 points, an increase of 2.17%, Shen Chengzhi reported 9379.47 points, an increase of 3.39%; the index reached 1606.71 points, an increase of 4.08%.
Judging from the disk, all sectors and concept stocks rose sharply. Conceptual stocks such as domestic software, semiconductors, chips, and blockchains topped the list, while textiles, coal, banks, electricity, petroleum, and steel sectors rose more narrowly.
Jufeng Gu Gu believes that from the early stabilization of the GEM and the stable performance of the Shanghai Composite Index today, the July market will not be too bad, at least there will be a wave of stock performance opportunities. In other words, there is a great opportunity for the market next month, and chances of making money may have arrived. It is suggested that the stocks should be weighted and the index should be lightened to take advantage of rare stock opportunities.
Xiangcai Securities said that from today's disk point of view, after the Shanghai Composite Index continued to decline, it finally ushered in a rally, but this does not mean that the main board is the main direction of the later, we are still firmly optimistic about the new shares led by Small-cap stocks. The main board is responsible for the stability of the broader market, and the active main force is handed to small-cap stocks. This will be the mainstream model in the long-term future.
Guangzhou Bandung pointed out that the positive signal released by the central bank is like a strong infusion of A shares. The Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee further changed the “liquidity and stability” of “fixed and stable” to “reasonably abundant”, and added “stability market expectations” to express its views. The intention to protect market funds was obvious.
Money speculation: Liquidity easing will improve market expectations
The regular meeting of the People's Bank of China’s Monetary Policy Committee in the second quarter of 2018 (the 81st general meeting) was held in Beijing on June 27. It is worth noting that the meeting mentioned that a stable monetary policy should remain neutral, be tight and moderate, manage the total supply gate, maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity, and guide the rational growth of money and credit and social financing. Comparing with the “China Monetary Policy Execution Report” in the first quarter, we can see that changes in the expression of liquidity have also officially changed from “maintaining a reasonable and stable liquidity” to “maintaining a reasonable and adequate liquidity”.
Liu Feng, chief economist and research director of Galaxy Securities, believes that the current fluctuations in the A-share market are amplifying the anxiety about the liquidity in the market. With the effect of the central bank’s monetary regulation, it can effectively ease market anxiety.
Wells Fargo FundHe said that if the short-term “wall of worry” can be overcome, the current A-share market is actually a very favorable battlefield for long-term investment. Judging from the valuation, as of June 28, 2018, the All-A index for all A-shares has had its PB of 1.69 times, which is basically close to the historic low of 1.45 times in May 2014. Below the historical median level of 2.46 times.
Market institutions believe that the overall development of China’s economic and social stability will not change and will lay a solid foundation for the long-term stable development of A-shares. At the same time, there was no apparent tension on the funds at mid-year, and the central bank’s third targeted downward adjustment during the year will help ease market concerns about liquidity and improve capital market expectations. In addition, the data shows that some institutional investors seeking long-term returns have been gradually buying.
Hot guess: lithium battery plate is expected to usher in the opportunity
On Friday (June 29th), Lithium Battery changed, and North Huachuang, Hanrui Cobalt, Zhiyun, Fenghua Hi-Tech, Cangzhou Pearl, Fosu Technology, Western Resources and other stocks daily limit, Jingwei shares, Tailai, Dow technology, Ningde era, Huayou Cobalt and other stocks have soared.
In the news, Chen Qingtai, chairman of the China Electric Vehicle Centennial, said recently that the rapid progress of the power battery industry has supported the improvement of the overall performance and competitiveness of electric vehicles. Driven by both policy and market forces, the new energy vehicle and power battery market will fly in the wings. At the same time, however, China's power battery market is also experiencing tight supply and overcapacity. Data show that in 2017 China's power battery production capacity has exceeded 200GWh, but the overall capacity utilization rate is only 40%, the market polarization is very obvious, high-end high-quality production capacity is insufficient, low-end production capacity is insufficient to order, production and operation difficulties, showing the structure Sex overcapacity.
Chuancai Securities pointed out that power lithium batteries have entered the high growth period of centralized retirement. In addition, the recycling policies have been gradually introduced, and corresponding laws and regulations have been gradually improved. The use of batteries for decommissioning power batteries will extend their life cycle, and they are expected to receive excess returns. Consumer lithium battery recycling projects have good economic value for metal recycling. At the same time, the perfection of waste classification will help increase the rate of (recovery/retirement), and the company is expected to achieve a steady increase in profits.
Soochow Securities believes that the current domestic battery companies are facing an accelerated reshuffle and will suppress the industry's valuation and performance; and equipment companies entering the global supply chain will be free from the impact of short-term fluctuations in the domestic industry. It is estimated that the world's top five lithium battery companies will monopolize more than 80% of the market share, and the equipment companies that bind the world's leading lithium battery companies will continue to have high growth.
Zhongtai Securities said that it is firmly optimistic about the lithium material sector in the second half of the year. Power batteries will gradually enter the fill-up cycle, and the trend of high-nickel ternaries will become increasingly clear. From the perspective of downstream demand, the recent start-up rate of mainstream battery companies has picked up, among which lithium iron phosphate stocks have basically cleared, and production has started to resume production. It is expected that full production will resume in July. Leading battery manufacturers such as BYD, CATL, and Guoxuan have more orders and higher operating rates. With the implementation of the new subsidy policy, some of the low-energy-density batteries will flow to areas such as energy storage, and power batteries will gradually enter the complementary database.
Guoxin Securities pointed out that with the conversion of the subsidy policy, some companies’ inventories of batteries have not been able to adapt to the new standard, and they are expected to flow into areas such as energy storage in the future. Except electrolytes, cobalt, lithium carbonate and other upstream materials prices fell slightly, the positive electrode, precursor, anode, diaphragm and other products prices have remained stable, and due to the price of the battery industry chain material suppliers, the short-term payback period cycle pressure At present, there are already many major suppliers of power materials companies that want to develop digital battery customers to optimize their own cash flow. In the second half of the year, major material prices will be affected by the penetration rate of digital battery customers of material suppliers.
(The content of the article is for reference only. For the stock mentioned in the article, it does not constitute investment advice. Investors should therefore handle this risk at their own risk.)
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