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Shell resource concept stocks broke out in a "snail shell" in the dojo

November 09, 2018 01:49
Author: Wang Zhu Ying Li Lvjia
source: China Securities Journal
edit:Eastern Fortune Network

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Summary
[The shell resource concept stocks broke out in the "snail shell" in the dojo." The brokerage analysts believe that the past three years are the down cycle of mergers and acquisitions. As the M&A policy shifts, the next three years will be the upward trend of mergers and acquisitions. The cycle, superimposed supervision layer to optimize transaction supervision, as the ST sector of the shell resource concentration, therefore broke out. However, it can be seen from Tianye Tonglian’s “Heavenly Floor” that some of the hot money took the opportunity to speculate on some junk stocks and theme stocks. Fast-forward and fast-moving, investors still need to be vigilant and prevent risks. It is advisable to choose some industries with good prospects and companies. Concept stocks with future performance or significant improvement are involved in dips. (China Securities Journal)

Recent mergers and acquisitions and restructuring of trading regulations, the leading stocks in the shell resourcesHengli IndustryDriven by the ST sector yesterday, a large area of ​​daily limit,*ST longevityIt is also the performance of the sky board. In sharp contrast, another shell concept stockTianye TonglianHowever, the "sky floor" was staged.

According to the analysts' analysis, the past three years are the down cycle of mergers and acquisitions. With the merger and reorganization policy shifting, the next three years will be the upward cycle of mergers and acquisitions, and the supervising layer will optimize the transaction supervision, so the ST sector, which is a concentrated area of ​​shell resources, will explode. . However, it can be seen from Tianye Tonglian’s “Heavenly Floor” that some of the hot money took the opportunity to speculate on some junk stocks and theme stocks. Fast-forward and fast-moving, investors still need to be vigilant and prevent risks. It is advisable to choose some industries with good prospects and companies. Concept stocks with future performance or significant improvement are involved in dips.

*ST Changsheng staged "The Earth Board"

Since October, the favorable policies for mergers and acquisitions have been frequent. As a result, the theme of shell resources broke out yesterday, and the representative is the ST sector. The data shows that the ST concept index rose by 2.65% throughout the day, and the cumulative increase since October 19 was 17.98%. In the same period, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 6%, and the former outperformed the latter by nearly 12 percentage points.

Of the 87 constituent stocks in the concept sector, 21 have daily limit, accounting for 24%. Among them, *ST Changsheng Pan played the sky board, the amplitude reached 10%, up 0.14 yuan or 5% at the close, closing at 2.94 yuan. The turnover was as high as 270 million yuan. At the close, the stock has a stock of 79,100 hand-made orders, valued at 2,362.13 million yuan. Previously, *ST Changsheng fell 88.59% from July 16 to November 7.

Huachuang Securities knew that the chief investment officer of the beta team, Wang Wei, said that the ST sector rose sharply on November 8, mainly due to two factors. First, yesterday's venture capital stocks showed a downward trend. After continuous rise, further consolidation is needed, and capital spillovers are looking for new opportunities. Second, since October, the regulatory authorities have frequently issued favorable policies for mergers and acquisitions, and the approval of mergers and acquisitions has pressed the accelerator. The number of projects in the single week last week will hit a new high this year.

At the same time, Hengli Industrial, the leading company in the concept of “shell resources”, successively received 11 daily limit boards, which boosted the related shell resources stocks. After a long period of decline in the ST sector, the downside is small, and the hot money dare to follow suit. The data shows that the ST concept index has fallen by a total of 49.29% from the low of January 2 to October 19. The largest decline in the constituent stocks from the highest price during the year was 62%, with the largest decline in *ST during the longevity period of 91%.

"In terms of *ST Changsheng, the stock will continue to fluctuate in the future." Wang Wei pointed out that the main reason for the stock to stage the sky is that the funds in the previous period were heavily hoarded. After the resumption of trading, the quilt funds will inevitably choose to oscillate and rise. Shipment for self-help, similar to beforeLetvandChongqing BeerAt the same time, the stock has a high degree of attention. After the daily limit, it is easy to cause tracking, forming an eyeball effect, and attracting more daring funds to operate.

Combined with the recent trading public information, the ST sector is mainly engaged in hot money, and the institution appears above the seller's seat and flees. For example, *ST Changsheng from November 5th to 7th, the top five seats in the purchase were the sales seat; the first four seats sold were also the sales seat, but the fifth seat was the institution, which sold 1,422,400 yuan.

Tianye Tonglian "Tianping Floor" warning

In stark contrast to *ST's longevity is another shell resource concept stock, Tianye Tonglian, which is just the opposite of *ST Changsheng's "Skyboard" and staged a "sky floor." On November 8, the stock opened at a standstill from the price limit and closed at around 10:00. At the close, the day fell 9.99% or 1.6 yuan, to close at 14.42 yuan, the daily turnover of 695 million yuan, the amount can create a year and a half high.

In the news, the stock market is in AustraliaSolar energyIt is planned to be the first case of the return of the stocks in China this year. According to the announcement, the company intends to sell all assets and liabilities of Tianye Tonglian to Huajian Industrial Investment Co., Ltd., and plans to purchase 100% equity of Jingao Solar Co., Ltd. through the issuance of shares.

JA Solar was established in 2005 and in the United States in February 2007NasdaqListed and listed, mainly engaged in the design, development, production and sales of high-performance solar products. The industry chain covers silicon wafers, batteries, components and photovoltaic power plants. It has 11 production bases around the world and employs 20,000 people. In 2017, the company achieved operating income of 19.6 billion yuan, net profit of more than 300 million yuan, and the company's net assets reached 6.7 billion yuan.

Liu Guangwei, director of the investment advisor of the New Era Securities Research Institute, pointed out that yesterday's A-share market staged a wonderful scene. *ST Changsheng staged the "Ground Plate", the stock price rose from the limit of the limit, and Tianye Tonglian went straight from the opening limit to the daily limit. It’s jaw-dropping. The main reasons are different, but the two stocks also have greater risks. Therefore, investors are advised to stay away from these two types of stocks, and wait and see. Do not blindly intervene.

Looking for deterministic opportunities

"The past three years have been the down cycle of mergers and acquisitions, and the next three years are the upswing cycle of mergers and acquisitions, mergers and acquisitions restructuring policy reversed, shell resource stocks broke out." Industry senior investors said.

Huachuang Securities knew that Xue Haizhou, the chief investment officer of the Alpha team of the institute, said that in 2014, 2015 and 2016, the mergers and acquisitions in the A-share market started to take off, but the chaos behind them led to strong supervision. In May 2016, the management stopped the listing of listed companies across the definition: Internet finance, games, film and television, VR, mergers and acquisitions and refinancing were suspended, encouraging listed companies to develop industries, such as cement companies to increase cross-border The photovoltaic industry is ok, but the growth of the cross-border game industry will be banned.

Affected by this, the theme of mergers and acquisitions quickly and comprehensively stalled, and the shell resources of the stir-fry were massively nude swimming. For example, the market strongly expected the cross-border transformation of film and television in St. Leda, a number of new shareholders of 30 yuan high transfer shares, the stock price fell from 33 yuan all the way to a minimum of 4.5 yuan.

Recently, the policy has been heated up. If the regulatory layer shortens the IPO, the company will be restructured and listed for a period of six months. Encourage the China Stock Exchange to participate in the A-share merger and acquisition, and add multiple industries to enjoy the rapid review channel. Another example is the regulatory statement issued on October 30, indicating that it will strengthen the governance of listed companies, standardize information disclosure and transparency, and create conditions to encourage listed companies to carry out repurchase and mergers and acquisitions. And said that it will optimize transaction supervision. Reduce trading resistance, increase market liquidity, and reduce unnecessary intervention in trading.

Liu Guangtao said that some oversold low-priced stocks rose like a rainbow. This is the result of the company's stock price rebound and stock price recovery; on the other hand, the result of increased market activity, this market has a certain popularity. To enhance market confidence and active trading. However, some of the hot money took the opportunity to speculate on some junk stocks and theme stocks. Fast-forward and fast-moving, investors still need to be vigilant and prevent risks. Investors can choose some stocks with good prospects, the company's future performance or significant improvement, especially those who are supported by the government's bailout funds or have already begun to buy back shares to pay more attention to find certain certainty. Investment Opportunities.

  Brokerage point of view

  Changjiang Securities: Short-term game in the middle of the game

The current policy has turned significantly, but the market is still in the mid-term period, and the turning of credit data will be the confirmation signal of the bottom data.

In the medium term, the current market is in the bottom range. Under the current level of government bond yields, the current market earnings index is more pessimistic. TakeShanghai and Shenzhen 300For example, compared with the similar valuation level under historical comparable caliber, the current 2019 profit growth rate is expected to be between 0% and 5%. However, from the actual situation, the current market expected earnings are significantly better than the current valuation implied expectations. Under the assumption that the future economy continues to decline and the liquidity probability continues to be loose, while the overall policy remains moderate, the assumptions currently contained in the market are indeed too pessimistic. But in the future, the market will enter a systematic expected repair interval. In addition to the continuous care of the policy, data is needed to prove that, after the data is improved, the actual economic downward pressure period is still difficult to estimate.

In the short term, the market may usher in a game of opportunity. At present, financial data has not yet bottomed out, and there are structural concerns. The economy will continue to exert downward pressure in the future. However, it is worth noting that the next stage may be the end of the year, the data representative decline, the market may be ushered in a wave of market-driven market, but still need the bottom of the data verification in the medium term.

  Dongxing Securities: All the bottoms are centered around policy and growth.

The market performance of the bottom regions has certain reference significance for the current market.

Overall, the two main lines of the bottom configuration: one is policy; the second is growth. For example, in 2005, the financial sector led the increase due to the improvement of market liquidity and the merger of share-trading reforms; in 2008, the building materials sector benefited the most; in 2013, the policy favored emerging industries, and the media and computers sectors led the gains. The remaining leading sectors are in the growth category. It is not difficult to find through induction that after the formation of the bottom, the performance of the sector is often closely related to the policy orientation and the growth ability of the enterprise at that time.

In the economic downturn and the market downturn, the performance of growth stocks is uncertain, forcing its valuation to drop sharply in the down market. However, after the market risk appetite has increased, growth stocks have also been favored by the market due to the high growth of their performance. According to the consensus calculation, the profit growth rate of various industries in 2019, the top three sectors are communication, delivery and electronics. In the past, the current policy dimension favors the small and medium-sized market capitalization of private enterprises. From the perspective of growth, the communications and electronics sectors also have higher growth expectations, and the market is recommended to focus on.

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(Article source: China Securities Journal)

                (Editor: DF407)

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