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The central bank released about 400 billion yuan positively affecting the stock market. The stock index is expected to rebound and repair the downtrend.

April 18, 2018 05:23
source: Investment newsletter
edit:Eastern Fortune Network

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Summary
[The central bank released about 400 billion yuan positively affecting the stock market. The stock index is expected to rebound and repair the downward trend.] The central bank announced that it will cut the deposit reserve ratio of most financial institutions by 1 percentage point and replace the expired MLF. The release of incremental funds is about 400 billion yuan. The analysis believes that the incremental funds released by the RRR increase has increased the low-cost funding source for small and micro enterprise loans. It has a positive effect on stabilizing the macro economy and the stock market. The stock index is expected to rebound and gradually repair the previous decline. (Investment Express)

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The central bank announced that it will cut most financial institutionsDeposit reserveThe rate is 1 percentage point and the replacement MLF is replaced. The release of incremental funds is about 400 billion yuan. The analysis believes that the incremental funds released by the RRR increase has increased the low-cost funding source for small and micro enterprise loans. It has a positive effect on stabilizing the macro economy and the stock market. The stock index is expected to rebound and gradually repair the previous decline.

  The central bank lowered the standard of some financial institutions by 1 percentage point and released 400 billion yuan.

The central bank announced that it will cut down large-scale business from April 25, 2018.bank, joint-stock commercial banks, city commercial banks, non-county rural commercial banks, foreign banks, RMBDeposit reserve ratioOn the same day, the above-mentioned banks will use the funds released by the RRR to repay the medium-term loan facilities (MLF) of the central bank they borrowed in the order of “first borrowing and returning first”.

The relevant person in charge of the central bank said that the operation of the partial RRR adjustment and the replacement of the medium-term loan facility (MLF) mainly involved large commercial banks, joint-stock commercial banks, city commercial banks, non-county rural commercial banks, and foreign banks. Banks currently have a relatively high level of deposit reserve ratio of 17% or 15%, and institutions that borrow MLF are also among these banks. Other financial institutions with a low reserve requirement ratio are not in the scope of this operation.

The person in charge said that the specific operation is divided into two steps: the first step is to reduce the RMB deposit reserve ratio of the above-mentioned types of banks by 1 percentage point from April 25, 2018; the second step is to hold the unexpired on the day of the RRR cut. The banks of MLF each repay the MLF of the central bank they borrowed with the funds released by the RRR in the order of “first borrow first”, and the funds released by the RRR are slightly more than the MLFs that need to be repaid. Based on the data at the end of the first quarter of 2018, the MLF was repaid about 900 billion yuan on the day of operation, and the incremental funds were released by about 400 billion yuan. Most of the incremental funds were released to the city commercial banks and non-county farmer firms.

  Industrial BankThe chief economist Lu political commissar believes that the reduction of the release of funds to replace the MLF operating mode can not be seen from a single MLF operation, but should be understood from a long-term perspective. In the context of the continuous decline in foreign exchange holdings and the central bank’s short-term operation of controlling the price of funds in open market operations, on the one hand, the central bank controls the inter-bank liabilities of financial institutions; on the other hand, the proportion of inter-bank liabilities of financial institutions is Constantly improving, this creates a contradiction, so it is necessary to reduce the standard.

Dr. Zhang Ming, chief economist of Ping An, said that the recent high-frequency data showed that domestic growth momentum was declining, and the focus on the adverse effects of trade wars increased, which made the probability of tightening financial regulatory policies that may occur in the second quarter decline, while central bank liquidity The time for the operation to relax is advanced (previously judged to occur in the third quarter). Although the specific impact of the central bank’s move remains to be seen, the direct impact is to benefit the bond market and help stabilize the stock market and the macro economy.

It is worth mentioning that the person in charge of the above-mentioned central bank said that the RRR cut does not mean that the trend of monetary policy has changed. Most of the funds released by this RRR are used to repay the medium-term loan facilities, which are substitutes for two liquidity adjustment instruments, while the remaining small funds are hedged against the tax period in the middle and late April, so the liquidity structure is optimized. At the same time, the total liquidity of the banking system has remained basically unchanged and remains neutral.

  Positive effect on the stock market

Recently, the central bank frequently adjustedinterest rateIn addition to the recent market attentioninterest rateIn addition to marketization, on the morning of the 17th, on the day of the announcement of the RRR cut, the central bank announced that it would raise the MTF interest rate by 5 basis points, and it is rare to continue the MLF expiration. On the previous day, the central bank also raised the 14-day reverse repo rate by 5 basis points.

  Changsheng FundIt is said that in conjunction with the person in charge of the central bank, the relevant financial institutions are required to reduce the amount of new funds required for small and micro enterprise loans, and this is included in the MPA assessment. Considering that the MPA assessment is quarterly, it is not excluded that the "displacement" reduction is repeated for multiple executions. Excluding the MLF that has expired on April 17, the MLF size in the second quarter of this year was 890.5 billion yuan, close to 900 billion yuan, which is also moderate. If this guess is verified, the “displacement” reduction will be promoted on a quarterly basis, which means that this year's “displacement” reduction may be more than once. The MWF of about 4.9 trillion yuan will be gradually replaced and the liquidity will continue to improve.

At the time when the Shanghai Composite Index continued to fall, the central bank's targeted RRR cuts released liquidity, which is expected to have a certain positive impact on A-shares. According to industry analysts, the release of incremental funds and the increase of low-cost funding sources for small and micro enterprise loans have a positive effect on stabilizing economic growth and have a positive effect on the stability of the stock market.

Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund, believes that the recent adjustment of the A-share market is mainly affected by the international situation and Sino-US trade frictions. The economic fundamentals have not changed, and many high-quality stocks have been wrongly killed. The central bank lowered the deposit reserve ratio to boost market confidence, and the market outlook is expected to rebound and gradually repair the previous decline.

Changsheng Fund pointed out that the core of the adjustment of the stock market after February is to worry about the economic downturn. The statistics in the first quarter show that the economy is still relatively stable, and the follow-up economic probability is not shocked. In the stock market, there are situations in which pessimistic expectations are restored. In the context of stable economy and moderate liquidity, the stock market continues to be a driving force for performance. It is currently in the rebound window. This RRR cut will increase market confidence and increase market liquidity. Sex.

It is understood that since 2014, the central bank has carried out 9 reductions in total, of which 5 were comprehensive reductions and 4 were targeted reductions. The most recent deviation from this RRRR was September 30, 2017, and the first trading day after the announcement (October 9, 2017), the Shanghai Composite Index opened 1.65% higher and closed up 0.76%.

It is worth mentioning that after the announcement of the central bank's RRR cut, the peripheral stock market immediately responded. As of press time, the FTSE China A50 Index futures rose to 2%.

Analysis and interpretation >>

  List of stock market trends after successive central bank RRR cuts (schedule)

  Li Dazhao: RRR cuts have a very positive effect on stabilizing economic growth and the stock market

  Guo Jin Li Lifeng: Monetary policy shifts from neutral to moderately expanding domestic demand

  Zhang Ming, Chief Economist of Ping An: The RRR cut helps stabilize the stock market and the macro economy

  Yiju Research Institute: RRR cuts help a more relaxed mortgage environment

  Huachuang strategy commented on the central bank's sharp RRR cut: monetary policy loose space opened

  Yang Delong: The current central bank's RRR cut is timely rain, which greatly boosts market confidence.

  Soochow Strategy's quick review and downgrade: the growth stock logic is further strengthened


                (Original title: The central bank announced a 1 percentage point reduction. The release of about 400 billion yuan positively affects the stock market)

                (Editor: DF309)

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