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About 400 billion yuan of central bank water is positively impacting the stock market. Stock index is expected to rebound and repair the trend of decline.

April 18, 2018 05:23
source: Investment Express
edit:Oriental Wealth Network

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Summary
[The central bank will release about 400 billion yuan in positive impact on the stock market. The stock index is expected to rebound and rectify the downward trend.] The central bank announced that it will lower the deposit reserve ratio of most financial institutions by 1 percentage point and replace the expired MLF. The release of incremental funds is about 400 billion yuan. According to the analysis, the incremental funds released by the RRR cut increase the low-cost funding sources for small and micro enterprise loans, and have a positive effect on the stability of the macro economy and the stock market. The stock index is expected to rebound and gradually repair the previous decline. (Investment Express)

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The central bank announced that it will cut down most financial institutionsDeposit reserveThe rate is 1 percentage point and the replacement expires MLF. The release of incremental funds is about 400 billion yuan. According to the analysis, the incremental funds released by the RRR cut increase the low-cost funding sources for small and micro enterprise loans, and have a positive effect on the stability of the macro economy and the stock market. The stock index is expected to rebound and gradually repair the previous decline.

  The central bank releases a percentage point for some financial institutions to release 400 billion yuan

The central bank announced that it will cut down on large-scale commercial operations from April 25, 2018bank, joint-stock commercial bank, city commercial bank, non-county rural commercial bank, foreign bank RMBDeposit reserve ratio1 percentage point; on the same day, the above banks will each use the funds released by the RRR reduction to repay the medium-term borrowing facilities (MLF) they borrowed from the central bank in accordance with the order of “first-off-first-off”.

Relevant person in charge of the Central Bank stated that the operation of the downgrade of some financial institutions and the replacement of medium-term loan facility (MLF) mainly involved large-scale commercial banks, joint-stock commercial banks, city commercial banks, non-county rural commercial banks, and foreign banks. Banks currently have a relatively high benchmark level of deposit reserve ratio of 17% or 15%, and institutions borrowing MLF are among these types of banks. Other financial institutions with a low reserve requirement ratio are not in this operating range.

The person in charge introduced that the specific operation was divided into two steps: the first step from April 25, 2018 onwards, to reduce the above-mentioned types of bank renminbi deposit reserve ratio by 1 percentage point; the second step, holding the date on the date of landing is not yet due The banks of the MLF, in accordance with the order of “first repaying first”, reimbursed the MLFs debited by the central bank with the funds released from the demotion, slightly lowering the amount of funds released than the MLFs that need to be repaid. Based on the data at the end of the first quarter of 2018, the repayment of MLF on the day of operation was about 900 billion yuan, while the release of incremental funds was about 400 billion yuan. Most of the incremental funds were released to city commercial banks and non-county rural commercial banks.

  Industrial BankChief Political Economist Lu political commissar that the release of funds to replace the expiring MLF's mode of operation can not be seen from a single MLF operation, but should be understood from a long-term perspective. In the context of the continuous reduction in foreign exchange reserves and the central bank’s focus on short-term operations such as the regulation of fund prices in the form of open market operations, the central bank controls the interbank liabilities of financial institutions while the proportion of liabilities of financial institutions in the same industry is With continuous improvement, this creates contradictions, so it is necessary to lower the standard.

Ping Ming, chief economist Dr. Zhang Ming said that the recent high-frequency data show that the domestic growth momentum of the downlink, the superposition of concerns about the adverse effects of the trade war, making the probability of tightening the second quarter of this financial regulatory policy may decline, and the central bank liquidity The point of time when the operation is relaxed is earlier (preceding judgment will occur in the third quarter). Although the specific impact of this move by the central bank has yet to be observed, the direct impact is a favorable bond market and will help stabilize the stock market and the macro economy.

It is worth mentioning that the above-mentioned central bank official said that the cut does not mean that the trend of monetary policy changes. Most of the funds released this time are used to repay the medium-term borrowing facilities, which is a substitute for two liquidity adjustment instruments. The remaining small amount of funds is opposed to the tax period in mid-to-late April. Therefore, the liquidity structure is optimized. At the same time, the total amount of liquidity in the banking system remained basically unchanged and remained neutral.

  Positive effect on the stock market

Recently, the central bank frequently adjustedinterest rate, in addition to the recent market attentioninterest rateIn addition to marketization, on the morning of the 17th on the date of the announcement of the RRR cut, the central bank announced that it raised the mid-term loan facility (MLF) interest rate by 5 basis points and seldom equates to expired MLF. On the previous day, the central bank also raised the 14-day reverse repurchase rate by 5 basis points.

  Changsheng FundAccording to the report, the person in charge of the Central Bank stated that the relevant financial institution's request for the new capital increase was mainly used for the loan of small and micro enterprises, and this was included in the MPA assessment. Taking into account the MPA assessment for the quarter, do not rule out the "replacement" reduction of multiple guesses. In addition to the MLF that has expired on April 17, the MLF due in the second quarter of this year will be 890.5 billion yuan, which is close to 900 billion yuan, which is also moderate with this speculation. If this speculation is verified, the “permutation” reduction will advance at a quarterly frequency, which means that similar “substitution” reductions may be more than one time this year, and approximately 4.9 trillion yuan of MLF will be gradually completely replaced, and liquidity will continue to improve.

At the time when the Shanghai Composite Index continued to fall, the central bank targeted and released liquidity, which is expected to have a positive impact on A-shares. Industry analysts believe that lowering the release of incremental funds has increased the low-cost funding sources for small and micro enterprise loans, which has a positive effect on stabilizing economic growth and has a positive effect on the stability of the stock market.

Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund believes that the recent A-share market adjustment is mainly affected by the international situation and trade friction between China and the United States. The economic fundamentals have not changed and many high-quality stocks have been killed. The central bank lowered the deposit reserve ratio to boost market confidence. The market outlook is expected to start a rebound and gradually repair the previous decline.

Changsheng Fund pointed out that the core of the adjustment in the stock market after February is the fear of economic slowdown. The statistics in the first quarter show that the economy is still relatively stable, and the follow-up economic probability is not at a loss. The stock market has a situation of repairing pessimistic expectations. Under the background of stable economy and neutral liquidity, the stock market continues to drive performance. Currently, it is in a rebound window period. The current RRR cut will increase market confidence and increase market liquidity. Sex.

It is understood that since 2014, the central bank has conducted a total of 9 downgrades, of which 5 are for overall reduction, and 4 are for targeted reduction. The closest to this downgrade was on September 30, 2017. On the first trading day after the announcement (October 9, 2017), the Shanghai Composite Index opened 1.65% higher and closed up 0.76% throughout the day.

It is worth mentioning that the external stock markets reacted immediately after the central bank cut the news. As of press time, the FTSE China A50 Index futures rose to 2%.

Analysis and interpretation>>

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  Soochow Strategy Quick Evaluation and Reduction: Logic for Growth Shares Further Strengthened


                (Original title: The central bank announced a one-percentage-point reduction, and about 400 billion yuan will positively affect the stock market.)

                (Editor: DF309)

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