In October, sales of excavators increased by 45% year-on-year, with a cumulative increase of 52%. According to the statistics of the Construction Machinery Association, in October 18, the excavator industry sold a total of 15,274 units, a year-on-year increase of 45%. Among them, the total exports were about 1,782 units, a year-on-year increase of 105%. From January to October, the cumulative sales of excavators increased to 171,516 units, a year-on-year increase of 52%. Due to the stimulation of stocking factors, sales in the fourth quarter were generally higher than in the third quarter. At the same time, considering that the fiscal policy in the second half of the year may be more positive, we believe that the sales volume of excavators in 18 years is expected to exceed 190,000 units. At the same time, according to the Ministry of Ecology and Environment "non-road mobile machinery and its installed diesel engine pollutant emission control technical requirements (draft for comments)", since January 2020, the national 4 emission standards may be implemented. We believe that the National 4 standard may be implemented ahead of time when environmental protection requirements are tightened. Since the emission standards currently implemented by the excavator are 3, if the country 4 is implemented ahead of schedule, we believe that it will stimulate the demand of the excavator industry.
The sales growth of small digging was higher than that of the same period of last year, and the steady growth of infrastructure construction gradually became apparent. In the domestic excavator sales market, large excavation (over 30t), medium digging (20-30t), and small excavation (below 20t) were sold in 1918 units, 3371 units and 8201 units respectively, up 25%, 35% and 46%. %. We believe that the sales demand for excavators is undergoing structural changes, and the demand for small excavation with high correlation with infrastructure is the highest, and the implementation effect of stable growth of infrastructure is emerging. Considering the future development of rural transformation, rail transit and other fields, we believe that the demand for small digging needs is expected to be supported.
The construction machinery industry chain in the post-intermediate cycle continues. On November 1, Pangyuan Leasing, the leader of the tower crane service, announced its October utilization rate, with a data of 82.4%, which was basically the same as the best level for the same period in 15-17. Considering the construction sequence of the project and the potential construction period of a tower crane, we believe that in the case of a large number of stock infrastructure and construction projects, the construction machinery boom or the tower crane and concrete that is being moved from the front end to the middle and rear end Conduction.
We are optimistic about the domestic rise of leading OEMs and core components companies. We believe that China's construction machinery industry chain is expected to rise on its own, with key recommendations: Sany Heavy Industry, Hengli Hydraulics, Liugong, Xugong Machinery, and Construction Machinery. It is recommended to pay attention to: Eddie Precision and Zoomlion.
risk warning.Fixed asset investmentSlowdown, tightening credit policies, and potential trade protectionism.
(Article source: Investment Express)