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The coal price is high and the two main lines are laid out in advance.

November 08, 2018 14:58
Author: Lu Ping Wang Xiao-Fei Liu Dian West
source: China Merchants Securities
edit:Eastern Fortune Network

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Summary
[The high price of coal is shocked. The two main lines are laid out in advance with high-quality targets (with stocks). Macroeconomic policies have been introduced one after another, and the policy has already appeared. At the industry level, stock prices have a large deviation from the fundamentals, and the current defense is in place. Although the thermal coal price has started to adjust in the near future, it is seasonal fluctuation. The subsequent winter storage is open, and it is expected to open the big market. It is recommended to lay out in advance and recommend two types of stocks: low valuation Baima (Shaanxi/Shenhua); Shanxi Asset Injection ( Huai mine / mountain coal / Chun'an / Yang coal / mountain coke / West coal).

  In terms of thermal coal,In the early stage, the coal prices of the main producing areas, which were mainly promoted by environmental protection and safety inspections, were loose. At present, the demand for winter storage is relatively limited. Following the resumption of production of mines, coal prices are expected to reverse downwards; this week, port coal prices are subject to building materials. The rebound in chemical demand has stopped rising, but the transfer of the Daqin line has returned to normal. The surge in port stocks has revealed weak downstream purchases and is still bearish in the short term.Coal coke,This week's futures fell across the board, and the double-focus spot continued to strengthen. At present, the profit of coke enterprises is high, the demand for coking coal purchases is strong, and the mines affected by the Shandong coal mine accidents are gradually resuming production, but mainly concentrated in the types of thermal coal. The shortage of coking coal supply continues, and it is expected to continue to support the coal price.In terms of investment strategy,This week, the macro policy continued to strengthen, and important meetings and infrastructure supplemental short-board documents were issued to confirm the policy. At present, the coal price reflected by the stock price is far from the spot. Under the pessimistic expectation, the stock has been defensively placed, and the core target such as Shaanxi Coal and Shenhua has a dividend yield of more than 5%, and the configuration value is prominent. Although the thermal coal price has started to adjust in the near future, it is seasonal fluctuation. The subsequent winter storage is open, and it is expected to open the big market. It is recommended to arrange in advance.Two types of coal targets are recommended:Low valuation white horse, Shanxi asset injection class.

  Coal-coke-steel: The period is now fully falling, and the double-focus spot continues to strengthen.

  Futures fell across the board.Rebar 1901 reported 4050.0 yuan / ton, down 169.0 yuan / ton or 4.0%; coke 1901 reported 2328.5 yuan / ton, down 123.5 yuan / ton or 5.0%; coking coal 1901 reported 1362.5 yuan / ton, down 55.0 yuan / ton or 3.9 %.

  The double-focus spot continued to strengthen.Tianjin harborThe price of the first-level coke bunker was 2,750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton or 2.0%; the price of the second-level coke bunker in Tianjin Port was 2,550 yuan/ton, which was flat. The price of Gujiao No. 2 is 1750 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton or 4.8%; the price of Liulin 4 is 1650 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton or 1.5%.

  Port coking coal stocks fell significantly.The northern four port coking coal stocks were 1.65 million tons, down by 260,000 tons or 13.8%. Thermal coal: port coal price weakened, Qin port's import volume rebounded, and port and power plant inventory surged

  Port coal prices have weakened.Qinang Q5500 reported 643 yuan / ton, down 1 yuan / ton or 0.2%; Shanxi excellent mixed (Q5500) reported 750 yuan / ton, down 10 yuan / ton or 1.3%.

  Qin port's import volume rebounded and port stocks surged.This week, Qinhuangdao Port's daily average railway transfer volume was 560,000 tons, up 40% from the previous month; the average daily throughput was 440,000 tons, down 4% from the previous month. Qinang's inventory this week was 5.46 million tons, up 11.5 million tons or 26.7% from the previous month.

  Power plant inventory hit a new high during the year.The inventory of the six major power generation groups was 16.96 million tons, up 1.27 million tons or 8.1%; the inventory days were 34.1 days, up 3.6 days; the average daily coal consumption was 508,000 tons, up 0.1 million tons.

  Investment Strategy:Macroeconomic policies have been introduced one after another, and the policy has already appeared. At the industry level, stock prices have a large deviation from the fundamentals, and the current defense is in place. Although the thermal coal price has started to adjust in the near future, it is seasonal fluctuation. The subsequent winter storage is open, and it is expected to open the big market. It is recommended to lay out in advance and recommend two types of stocks: low valuation Baima (Shaanxi/Shenhua); Shanxi Asset Injection ( Huai mine / mountain coal / Chun'an / Yang coal / mountain coke / West coal).

  risk warning:Governance was less than expected; imports rose sharply; the country's improvement was lower than expected.

(Article Source:China Merchants Securities)

                (Editor: DF358)

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