Less than half a year after the listing, the biggest increase in stock price was 14 times. At the end of last year, it was considered as a “predatory stock”.Guizhou Gas(600903, SH), disclosed its first annual report after the listing on the evening of April 16.
At the end of last year, when there was a brief “gas shortage” at the end of the year, the share price of Guizhou Gas had soared. It was even called by some people as “gas shortage concept stocks”. However, as can be seen from this annual report, it is difficult for Guizhou Gas to benefit from it. According to reports, the domestic LNG prices rose sharply in the fourth quarter of last year, but the cost of Guizhou Gas has actually increased. In addition, the company’s main business last yearinterest rateThere is a decline.
"Demon shares" do not demon, Guizhou Gas sales revenue was improved last year, relying on down-to-earth customer growth.
● Revenue growth but grossinterest rateShrinking
Guizhou Gas delivered its first report card after listing. In 2017, Guizhou Gas's operating revenue was approximately RMB 2.779 billion, an increase of 22.47% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was approximately RMB 137 million, a year-on-year increase of 38%.
Although revenue and net profit are increasing, the increase in costs is also very significant.
According to Guizhou Gas Disclosure Related Account Data, last year, the company's operating cost increased by 480 million yuan year-on-year, an increase of 28.65% year-on-year. The increase in operating costs was higher than the increase in revenue, and the impact of other expenses, the company's gross profit margin decreased.
In 2017, the gross profit rate of gas and natural gas sales business in Guizhou was 9.02%, which was a decrease of 2.74 percentage points from the previous year. The gross profit margin of the natural gas installation business was 56.45%, a decrease of 5.17 percentage points from the previous year.
When the gross profit rate of the main business is reduced, an investment income makes Guizhou Gas's net profit data more colorful - the company receivedGuiyang BankThe distribution of dividends is about 13.61 million yuan.
The decline in the gross profit margin of Guizhou Gas in 2017 is related to the nature of the main industry.
Guizhou Gas is mainly engaged in urban gas operations. In layman's terms, natural gas is purchased from natural gas suppliers, and then sold to customers according to the needs of users. The pipelines, gate stations, etc. used to build natural gas during transportation are another part of Guizhou Gas. business. According to Guizhou Gas's 2017 annual report and prospectus disclosure, from 2014 to 2017, the company's gas sales revenue and installation revenue will basically remain at 7:3, and the proportion of gas sales revenue will be higher.
However, "Daily Economic News" reporter learned from previous contacts with gas companies that, as a natural gas "intermediary," companies usually need toPetroChinaLarge corporations purchase gas sources, and therefore have weaker bargaining power in the upper reaches. At the same time, the number of downstream gas users is large, so that natural gas has the property of public goods, so the price of gas is inelastic and some companies do not even have pricing rights.
The Guizhou Gas Annual Report 2017 shows that the company currently has a natural gas supply structure with pipeline gas as the main source and LNG gas source as the auxiliary gas source in Guizhou Province. The source of the pipeline gas is mainly purchased from PetroChina Guizhou Natural Gas Pipeline Network Co., Ltd., which directly shares shares. In 2017, the purchase amount accounted for 69.79% of the transaction amount of the same type; natural gas purchased was mainly sold to residents and non-resident users, vehicle refueling users, and also used for LNG trade and other pipeline natural gas sales.
Guizhou Gas stated that the company's upstream and downstream prices for natural gas sales are subject to stricter controls, and the company's ability to transfer costs downstream has been limited.
● The average price of natural gas sales decreases year by year
In the middle and late December of last year, the domestic natural gas supply was tight, LNG prices rose sharply, and Guizhou Gas's share price also had a wave of strong pull, with an interval increase of up to 105%. On December 28, 2017, Guizhou Gas was suspended for verification, but this did not deter the company’s stock price from rising. Since the January 1818 resumption of trading until January 16, its share price has continued to soar and nearly doubled.
At that time, many investors believed that the demand for natural gas increased due to factors such as the climate, natural gas products boomed, prices rose, and Guizhou Gas benefited.
At present, China's residents generally implement ladder prices for gas use. If they need to be raised, they must go through the hearing procedure. However, gas and gas companies usually have a certain percentage of rights to go up and down, and enterprises can flexibly grasp market conditions.
In response, Guizhou Gas also stated that at present, Guizhou has established a linkage mechanism for the sale price of natural gas for non-residents in Guizhou, and the price adjustment of natural gas in upstream pipelines can be transferred to the downstream in a timely manner; however, there is still an increase in upstream purchase prices for natural gas and LNG for residents, and the cost cannot be timely. The risk of shifting downstream.
The year-on-year increase in operating revenue of Guizhou Gas last year was mainly due to the increase in natural gas sales volume. The annual report shows that in 2017, Guizhou Gas developed 210,000 households; the sales of natural gas reached 686 million cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 24.4%.
From 2014 to 2016, Guizhou Gas's natural gas sales revenue was 1.16 billion yuan, 1.33 billion yuan, and 1.51 billion yuan, respectively. The company's actual sales of natural gas were 330 million, 400 million, and 550 million cubic meters, respectively, which increased year by year. However, in terms of prices, the average selling price of natural gas during the same period was 3.54 yuan, 3.31 yuan, and 2.73 yuan respectively, which also showed a year-on-year decrease.
Guizhou Gas stated that the company is mainly responsible for earning the difference between upstream and downstream gas prices. Taking into account the public goods properties of gas, the unit's profit rate is not high but relatively stable. The increase in total revenue and profit mainly comes from gas sales. increase.
● LNG sales price upside down during “gas shortage”
At the end of 2017, domestic natural gas supply was once tight. “The downstream demand has grown too fast, but the rate of self-recovery and import growth has not been rapid. Therefore, there has been a phenomenon of “gas shortage” in many places.” Zhuochuang Information Liquefied Natural Gas MarketAnalystHe recalled.
It is understood that due to the high cost of natural gas storage and low long-term storage capacity, China's current gas storage capacity cannot fully cover annual consumption. When seasonal or local gas shortages occur, including domestic gas and industrial and commercial gas, they rely on LNG (liquefaction). Natural gas) added.
He told the reporter of “Daily Economic News” that LNG is an additional product of pipeline gas, which is obtained after liquefaction of pipeline gas. Therefore, when domestic pipeline gas “gas shortage”, domestic LNG is not so abundant, so it can only be Gaining the gap through imports also contributed to the significant increase in LNG prices at the end of last year.
According to statistics from the National Development and Reform Commission, natural gas production in 2017 was 148.7 billion cubic meters; the import volume was 92 billion cubic meters; and the natural gas consumption was 237.3 billion cubic meters. It can be seen that the output is slightly more than consumption, and supply and demand are tightly balanced.
However, since last year, Guizhou Gas, which is considered by the market as a “gas shortage” concept, is hardly able to benefit more from it.
Guizhou Gas announced in 2017 annual report 2017China Natural GasThe seasonal contradiction between supply and demand in the market is prominent. During the period of peak supply, in order to ensure a smooth supply of gas, the company purchases LNG as an emergency auxiliary gas source for city gas supply according to the market price. This part of the supply gas is not applicable to the price linkage mechanism and the purchase price is reversed. The future still does not rule out the possibility of rising operating costs caused by the contradiction between supply and demand.
Guizhou Gas further stated that if the future upstream gas supply enterprises cannot supply pipeline natural gas or some LNG suppliers are suspended from production as agreed in the contract, difficulties in operation, decline in delivery capacity, etc., this will have an adverse impact on the company's future production and operations.
According to the Guizhou Gas Prospectus, the purchase price of LNG (per cubic meter) was 2.02 yuan and 2.15 yuan respectively in 2016 and mid-2017.