“Ultimately, considering that there is no submarine tunnel, we believe that the local shipping industry will benefit the most.” Jiang Jingsong, chief investment officer of Tibet Longyuan, told the reporter about the investment.Straits sharesThe (002320.SZ) logic.
It turns out that his judgment is very precise. Data show that from the beginning of the year to April 16, Straits shares led 30 A shares in Hainan with a 74.64% increase.
On April 17, after the differentiation of the concept stocks of the Hainan Free Trade Zone, the Straits shares staged a “sky floor” market. As of the close of the day, Straits shares had an amplitude of 19.98% and a turnover rate of 15.4%. This is not an example. Following the collective limit of listed companies in Hainan on the 16th, more than half of the stocks on the 17th fell more than 5%.
Jiang Jingsong pointed out that he did not expect that the continuity of the concept stocks in Hainan would be so bad. The market's fall has already announced that the market has entered a phased adjustment. “It is just in time to catch up with the recent structural adjustments in the market, such as the active software and computers. The subject stock has recently been pulled back."
It should be pointed out that the recently issued Guidance Opinions on Supporting Hainan's Comprehensive Deepening of Reform and Opening-up (hereinafter referred to as the "Opinions") is only a programmatic document. How to implement and implement it still needs to wait for the Hainan provincial government to make more detailed plans. .
The concept of day floor differentiation
With the release of the Opinions, Hainan's plan to upgrade the free trade trial zone and plan to build a free trade port far exceeds market expectations.
Using the words of Chen Yangle, deputy director of the Tourism School of Hainan University, it was said, “Beyond all expectations, the policy package given by the Central Government gave Hainan what it wanted and gave it to those who did not expect it.”
It is precisely because of this that the Hainan concept stock has received a positive response from the secondary market. April 16, includingLuo Niushan(000735.SZ), Straits shares and other 21 listed companies in Hainan stock limit limit.
However, let the market is surprised again that on April 17th, the speculation of Hainan stocks has cooled down across the board.
The differentiation trend is also related to the guiding opinions. "Accelerating the promotion of new energy vehicles and energy-saving and environmentally friendly vehicles will gradually prohibit the sale of fuel vehicles on Hainan Island," the "Opinions" made clear.
More than half of Hainan’s stocks had a fall of more than 5% on the 17th, and the Straits shares even staged a “sky floor”. The stock price returned to the original point on the 13th.
Relevant data show that the top five main seats sold net shares of 335 million yuan in the Straits on that day, and the seats of agencies that only ranked one on the list sold 250 million yuan. Even if the Luo Niu Shan and New Continent A that had maintained their strength on the same day, there was a case where institutional seats were sold.
"This part of the company's early rise is more impressive, Straits shares have doubled from the low point. Excluding losses and low-profit companies, Straits shares have become the highest valuation companies in the industry." Jiang Jingsong said, return to the fundamentals The financial data of listed companies in Hainan is not very good. The recent rise is just a topical investment.
In his view, since the IPO release rhythm has slowed down at the beginning of the year, the activity of the small and medium-sized players has recovered somewhat. The most direct result is that the secondary stocks have a daily limit. “The situation has changed again, and the software and computer sectors have continued to fall. This is obviously Not conducive to themes hype."
How to land is a variable
Compared with the release of news in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone and Xiong'an New District, investment in Hainan’s plate is equivalent to “explicit card”, but the support policy is stronger than expected, which makes the sustainability of its market relatively weak.
“The initial speculation of the secondary market on Xiong'an New District was rather mad because everyone did not anticipate this news. At the same time, the new district’s specifications are very high and policy support is also very strong.” Jiang Jingsong pointed out that the best market continuity is in Shanghai. Free trade zone, but like Hainan, the market has already been prejudged.
Another factor that should not be overlooked is that when the Shanghai Free Trade Zone triggered rises in the stock prices of related companies, the supervision of capital speculation and speculation was far from being comparable to the current market, and even then it had once spawned a “fried map”. Thematic investment, and now the market's "plate" type of rising trend has been substantially reduced.
Jiang Jingsong said that although the policy provided the subject of speculation, it would take time to stretch back to the local economic development level and the fundamentals of the company.
The Shanghai Free Trade Zone is at a high starting point. Not only is there a large number of listed companies, but the overall quality is also significantly higher. The Xiong'an New District has more features as an administrative region, so the most direct impact is on industries such as real estate, infrastructure and environmental protection.
In contrast, Hainan itself has a relatively weak economy and talent base. After upgrading to a free trade zone, the development direction may be dominated by the tertiary industry.
"If we say that before the establishment of the Special Economic Zone, Hainan will be the target of Taiwan, and now it is proposed that the establishment of a free trade zone and a free port will be aimed at Hong Kong and Singapore. It is aimed at the international advanced level." Chen Yangle said that "Opinion" is a comprehensive reform policy. , tourism and service industry are only one aspect. They also involve shipping, energy andinternational tradeAnd other fields.
However, at present, the detailed planning of Hainan Free Zone has not yet been released. It is difficult to determine how to do it in the future and who will do it. This is not a case in which a listed company can unilaterally issue an announcement but it needs to be "centralized."
Chen Yangle pointed out that the guidelines have just come out and the province is constantly investigating and learning. How to fully use, make good use of, and use policies will eventually be aggregated into a plan of action, such as how the high seas tourism, horse racing, and lottery tickets are specifically The method is determined.
It is foreseeable that with the landing of action plans in the future, Hainan stocks will once again be beneficial, and the question of which company will benefit from the construction of Hainan Free Trade Zone will become clearer.