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CITIC Jiantou: Gujia Home Buy Rating

November 07, 2018 12:32
source: CITIC Jiantou
edit:Eastern Fortune Network

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  event

  Event one:On the evening of November 5, the company issued an announcement of the increase in holdings. In order to maintain the consistency of the acquisition subject, Gujia Home passedbig dealTo the concerted action people Xu Yuhua, Xu Yonghai, Ningbo Gujia Investment, Jiahuitong purchased their shares of Xi'an A shares of 9,465,500 shares, accounting for 2.40% of Xilinmen's total share capital, the holding price was 10.76 yuan / share, the holding amount was 1.02 100 million yuan.

  Event two:On the evening of October 29, the company released the third quarterly report of 2018. In 2018, Q1-3 realized operating income of 6.393 billion yuan, an increase of 31.87% over the same period of last year; the net profit of returning to the mother was 786 million yuan, an increase of 26.70% over the same period of last year; Net profit was 637 million yuan, an increase of 34.27% over the same period. 2018Q3 realized revenue of 2.344 billion yuan, up 34.95% year-on-year; net profit attributable to mothers was 303 million yuan, up 30.61% year-on-year; net profit attributable to non-home return was 245 million yuan, up 60.53% year-on-year.

  Our analysis and judgment

  Stable development of multi-category, Q3 performance growth has improved significantly

During the reporting period, the company achieved operating income of 6.393 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.87%, mainly due to the company's increased sales investment, and the addition of mergers and acquisitions companies to achieve steady income growth. 2018Q1/Q2/Q3 Gujia realized operating income of 18.52/21.97/23.44 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 34.22%/26.90%/34.95%, respectively; net profit of returning home was 2.68/2.14/303 million yuan, respectively. It is 42.90%/6.96%/30.61%. In the single season of 2018Q3, the company's revenue growth rate turned upward, and the performance growth improved significantly.

According to our calculations, in terms of sub-categories, the company's sofa revenue in the first three quarters of 2018 was about 3.3-3.4 billion, a year-on-year growth rate of about 18%; bed income was about 900 million, up about 30% year-on-year; The dining chair income is about 2-3 billion yuan; the custom furniture income is about 110 million.

  Raw material prices fall, Q3 single season hairinterest rateSmall increase, financial costs continue to improve

During the reporting period, Gu Jia sales Maointerest rateIt was 35.72%, a decrease of 1.02pct year-on-year; the net profit margin was 12.75%, a decrease of 0.38pct. In terms of quarterly, the gross profit margin of 2018Q3 was 35.28%, an increase of 1.25pct year-on-year, and the net profit margin was 13.30%, a decrease of 0.52pct.

We believe that the gross profit margin of 2018Q3 has rebounded, mainly due to the fall in raw material prices. The main raw materials required for the production of the company include chemical raw materials such as TDI and MDI. The average price of pure MDI in East China in 2018Q3 is about 27,973 yuan/ton, down 1.76% from the same period of last year. The average price of TDI in East China is about 27,688 yuan/ton. Compared with the same period of last year, it fell by 16.45%.

In terms of expenses, the company's sales expense ratio during the reporting period was 18.56%, a decrease of 1.75pct year-on-year; the management expense ratio was 2.70%, and the research and development expense ratio was 1.39%, which was 1.03pct higher than the management expense ratio of 3.06% in the same period of the previous year. The financial expense ratio was 0.07%, a decrease of 0.72pct year-on-year. Looking at the quarter, the 2018Q3 company's sales expense ratio was 18.66%, a decrease of 1.23pct from the same period of the previous year; the management expense ratio was 3.59%, and the R&D expense ratio was 1.32%, which was 1.74pct higher than the management expense ratio of 3.17% in the same period of last year; The rate was -0.18%, a decrease of 1.37pct from the same period of the previous year.

  Acquisition of Xilinmen no more than 30% equity, sofa, mattress leader strong alliance

On October 15, the company issued an announcement. Gujia and Huayi Investment signed the Letter of Intent for Equity Transfer on October 14, 2018. Huayi Investment intends to transfer to its home ownership of not less than 90,817,292 shares of Xilinmen A shares. . If the transaction is completed, Gujiajiao will hold no less than 23% of the shares of Xilinmen and become the largest shareholder of Xilinmen.

On November 5th, the company issued an announcement. In order to maintain the consistency of the acquisition subject, the concerted action person agreed that the original commitment to increase the shareholding of Xilinmen through the secondary market will be followed by Gujiajiao, and the scale of the increase will be 30 million to 80 million yuan. The duration of the plan is within 6 months from October 26, 2018.

Xilinmen's main products include mattresses, soft beds, sofas and accessory household products. It has “Net Sleep”, “Cloud Sleep”, “Love Times”, “City Love”, “Fa Shiman” and “Alna”. "Brano", "Can Shang", "Demi" and other product lines, as well as Italian sofa brands "Chateau dAx", "M&D", "M&D CASA ITALIA". In the first three quarters of 2018, Xilinmen achieved operating income of 2.964 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.78%; net profit attributable to mothers was 159 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.01%. Xilinmen sales model is divided into three categories: independent brand sales, hotel engineering sales and ODM/OEM sales. By the end of June 2018, there were more than 1,700 Xilinmen stores and 300 M&D sofa stores in China.

We believe that this time, Gujiajiao acquired Xi'anmen's 30% equity through agreement transfer and secondary market purchase. After the transaction is implemented, Gujia and Xilinmen can effectively integrate product categories, channels and marketing to realize domestic sofa leading and domestic The mattress faucet is strong and united.

  Investment Advice:

We expect the company's operating income in 2018-2019 to be 8.854 billion yuan and 10.82 billion yuan, respectively, up 32.84% and 22.21% year-on-year; net profit was 1.047 billion yuan and 1.289 billion yuan respectively, up 27.36% and 23.12% respectively, EPS They are 2.45 yuan/share and 3.01 yuan/share respectively, and the corresponding P/E are 19.9x and 16.2x respectively."Buy"Rating.

  Risk factors:

Real estate sales have fallen sharply; industry competition has intensified.

(Article source: CITIC Jiantou)

                (Editor: DF328)

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