Signed the HPV vaccine purchase agreement to provide guarantee for the company's performance growth
event:Zhifei Bio and Merck signed an HPV vaccine-related agreement to further adjust and determine the comprehensive basic purchase amount of HPV vaccines that the company represents: 55.07, 83.30 and 4.165 billion yuan respectively purchased in 2019, 2020 and 2021.
The global sales growth of HPV vaccine is good, and China's market is broad:Since 2011, sales of Merck's HPV vaccine in the international market have shown an increasing trend year by year. The listing of the nine-valent vaccine in 2015 has led to steady growth in sales. While GlaxoSmithKline's bivalent vaccine continued to decline after reaching its peak sales in 2011, the four- and nine-valent vaccines have obvious competitive advantages, and there is reason to expect a similar situation in the domestic market. In the first three quarters of the 4-month HPV vaccine, a total of 3.8 million batches were issued. Since the batch issuance in the third quarter is concentrated in August-September, considering the supply and demand status of the market, we believe that the sales volume from January to September is approximately equal to the batch data issued in the first three quarters. According to the company's current sales situation, the annual sales volume is expected to reach 5 million. After the 9-price listing, we believe that the main market of the four-price market will focus on women aged 26-45. According to the demographic yearbook, there are about 160 million women in this age group, and the market space is still large. If the penetration rate of this part of the population is 10%, there will be about 48 million stock market space, considering the winning bid price of 798 yuan / support, the entire market is 38 billion. In the first three quarters, the number of 9-digit HPV batches issued was 300,000. The product is aimed at women aged 16-26. According to the data from the sixth census, the female population in this age group is about 100 million. If the penetration rate reaches 10%, there are 30 million for each person. The stock market space, the winning price of the product is 1298 yuan / support. The market space brought by 30 million pieces is 39 billion yuan.
The new purchase agreement brings certainty to the rapid growth of the company's performance:According to the purchase agreement, the company will purchase a total of 5.507 billion HPV vaccine products in 2019. If HPV vaccine hairinterest rateAt 45%, the company's 2019 HPV sales revenue will reach 10 billion. If 6.5 million of them are 4-valent HPV vaccines (the winning price is 798 yuan/piece), the sales volume of the 9-valent HPV vaccine (winning price of 1298 yuan/piece) is about 3.71 million. We believe that China's HPV vaccine has a large gap and a broad market space. With the signing of the purchase agreement, the supply of future products can be guaranteed, and the company's rapid growth in performance is more certain.
profit predictionAnd investment rating:We estimate that from 2018 to 2020, the company's net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.58 billion yuan, 3.384 billion yuan and 4.454 billion yuan, up 267.5%, 113.0% and 31.6% year-on-year; the corresponding EPS was 0.99 yuan, 2.12 yuan and 2.78 yuan. We believe that the company's products are excellent, heavy products have been launched, and the research products are rich, and the growth in the medium and long term is supported. The company has strong sales promotion and obvious channel advantages. Therefore, we maintain the “overweight” rating.
risk warning:The risk of product price reduction, the risk of R&D projects failing to meet expectations, the risk of bad debts of accounts receivable, and the unpredictability of vaccine risk events.
(Article source: Soochow Securities)