Fed meeting on interest rates in March 2019

At 2:00 am Beijing time on Thursday (March 21), the US Federal Reserve announced that it will maintain the target range of the federal funds rate of 2.25%-2.50%, in line with market expectations. The Fed’s interest rate resolution statement hinted that it will not raise interest rates in 2019 and expects to raise interest rates once in 2020.

It is expected that there will be no interest rate increase this year, and the contract will be closed in September. "Dove" Powell: Patience! patient! patient!

"The current observed economic data is difficult to determine the future trend of monetary policy. At present, we are best to be patient," said Fed Chairman Powell. In fact, at the press conference after the meeting of interest rates, Powell had mentioned the word "patience" four times in the opening four minutes. ...[Details]

The Fed keeps interest rates unchanged: it implies no interest rate increase this year. September to stop shrinking (declaration)

The Fed’s separate statement on shrinking the table said that from May this year, the maximum reduction in the monthly reduction of US Treasury bonds in the balance sheet (shrinking) plan will be reduced from the current $30 billion to $15 billion to the end of September. Stop shrinking and plan to provide more details on market operations in May. ...[Details]

Powell: The US growth rate slows more than expected. It does not seek to influence the US dollar with monetary policy.

After the Fed made a decision not to raise interest rates temporarily, Powell reiterated that the Fed will remain patient and maintain a wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that the US economic growth rate will remain stable in 2019, but it is not as strong as it was in 2018. Consumption, inflation, and global economic growth have slowed down, becoming the three sources of the Fed’s “maintaining patience”. ...[Details]

Finding a different word by word, revealing the subtle changes in the Fed’s March policy statement

The Fed announced that it will keep interest rates unchanged and give up its expectation of further interest rate hikes this year as the economy is expected to slow down. The Fed’s policy guidelines have undergone a major transformation. It is now expected that interest rates will be raised once again by 2021. It is no longer necessary to prevent inflation through restrictive monetary policy. ...[Details]

Market impact
Last night, the Fed’s interest rate meeting exceeded expectations! The RMB exchange rate is soaring, Chinese assets will be favored.

In the early morning of March 21, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve announced that it would maintain the federal funds rate unchanged within the 2.25%-2.50% target range. The original meeting of the interest rate meeting was expected to be unpredictable, but the final results still see a lot of expectations. ...[Details]

A "pigeon" in the end! The Fed’s policy guidelines have suddenly changed dramatically. Are the financial circle partners stunned?

The Fed also said after the two-day policy meeting that it will slow down its monthly reduction of US Treasury bonds from May, from a maximum of $30 billion a month to a maximum of $15 billion. If the economic and currency market conditions develop as expected, the Fed will stop shrinking in September. ...[Details]

The Fed is not expected to raise interest rates during the year. Bank stocks collectively fell. The Dow fell more than 140 points.

On Wednesday, the Fed announced that it maintained its benchmark interest rate unchanged from 2.25% to 2.5%, in line with market expectations. The three major US stock indexes closed mixed. The S&P 500 index closed down 8.34 points, or 0.29%, to 2824.23 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 141.71 points, or 0.55%, to 25,745.67 points. The Nasdaq Composite Index closed up 5.02 points, or 0.07%, to 7728.97 points. ...[Details]

The Fed’s dot matrix chart shows that the US dollar did not raise interest rates during the year and the dollar fell against the trend.

Spot gold reversed the decline on Wednesday (March 20), the highest intraday price of US$1,314 per ounce, and gold once fell below the 1300 mark and refreshed the two-day low, but with the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged and releasing pigeons The faction said that the US dollar index fell more than 40 points to a new low since February 5, helping gold to rise from falling. ...[Details]

No more interest rates this year! The Fed’s high “pigeon” is a dollar-breaking cliff, and the gold pillar

The much-watched Fed rate decision drama finally kicked off. At 2 am Beijing time on Thursday (March 21), the Fed announced that interest rates would remain unchanged and hinted that it would not raise interest rates again this year. After the Fed’s interest rate decision was released, the US dollar index accelerated in the short-term, and the 96 mark fell. Spot gold soared more than $10 to above the $1310/oz mark.

Analysis review
CITIC Securities: A big turning point in global monetary policy How does the US choose not to raise interest rates?

We believe that in the context of the shift in global monetary policy, the Fed, which is so far-to-night, has raised the probability of using domestic currency policy to use price-based monetary instruments. Once interest rates are cut, we believe that 10-year government bonds may still break 3% to 2.8%. . ...[Details]

After the Fed’s expectations of “doves”, analysts look at interest rate hikes and shrink prospects

The Zhongjin Macro Zhang Mengyun team also predicts that in the asset structure, until the far future, the Fed will continue to reduce MBS by means of no-expiration, which means that in order to maintain the total asset size, this year Beginning in October, the Fed will reduce the funds from MBS to purchase government bonds. ...[Details]

Risk assets are expected to be boosted? The Fed may announce the end of the contract

Almost all FOMC officials hope that the Fed will announce plans to close its balance sheet later this year. The March 19 news said that analysts at Nedbank said that any hint of the Fed to stop reducing its balance sheet could boost risk assets such as stocks. However, Jefferies economist Ward McCarthy believes that the Fed is unlikely to offer new details of a reduced balance sheet. ...[Details]

Decision Analysis: Markets bet on the Fed’s position to become more dovish

The market is increasingly convinced that the Fed will release dovish information this week and is worried about a slowdown in US economic growth. For the Fed's resolution on Wednesday, investors will pay special attention to whether the decision-making layer will lower the interest rate forecast to be lower enough to be closer to their "lattice map." The dot matrix shows the Fed officials' personal views on interest rates for the next three years. The Fed is also expected to announce more details on stopping the reduction of nearly $3.8 trillion in bond positions. ...[Details]

It’s hard to leave the European Union’s dreams, and it’s hard to beat the Fed’s interest rate resolution.

The dollar is under pressure as the market is worried about the US economy and expects the US to adopt a dovish stance this week. The interest rate resolution will announce the dot matrix, and the economic and inflation forecasts are also attracting attention. The British House of Commons rejected the third vote on the Brexit agreement. The EU alleged that she must decide whether to extend the Brexit deadline to 2020 by mid-April, or face a three-month non-official exchange. risk. ...[Details]

Royal Bank of Canada: Expected to maintain the Fed’s interest rate increase in 2019

The Royal Bank of Canada said it expects the Federal Reserve to maintain a rate hike in 2019 and maintain it at the end of the year. The market generally expects the Fed to remain inactive this month, so the market's response will depend more on interest rate expectations and possible changes in the balance sheet. ...[Details]

List of changes in the Federal Reserve interest rate
years Interest rate change (base point) Interest rate level (%)
2018.12.20 25 2.25-2.50
2018.09.27 25 2.00-2.25
2018.06.14 25 1.75-2
2018.03.22 25 1.50-1.75
2017.12.14 25 1.25-1.50
2017.6.15 25 1.00-1.25
2017.3.16 25 0.75-1.00
2016.12.15 25 0.5-0.75
2015.12.17 25 0.25-0.5
2008.12.16 -75 0-0.25
2008.10.29 -50 1
2008.10.8 -50 1.5
2008.4.30 -25 2
2008.3.18 -75 2.25
2008.1.30 -50 3
2008.1.22 -75 3.5
2007.12.11 -25 4.25
2007.10.31 -25 4.5
2007.9.18 -50 4.75
2006.6.29 25 5.25
2006.5.10 25 5
2006.3.28 25 4.75
2006.1.30 25 4.5
2005.12.13 25 4.25
2005.11.1 25 4
2005.9.20 25 3.75
2005.8.9 25 3.5
2005.6.30 25 3.25
2005.5.3 25 3
2005.3.22 25 2.75
2005.2.2 25 2.5
2004.12.14 25 2.25
2004.11.10 25 2
2004.9.21 25 1.75
2004.8.10 25 1.5
2004.6.30 25 1.25
2003.6.25 -25 1
2002.11.6 -50 1.25
2001.12.11 -25 1.75
2001.11.6 -50 2
2001.10.2 -50 2.5
2001.9.17 -50 3
2001.8.21 -25 3.5
2001.6.27 -25 3.75
2001.5.15 -50 4
2001.4.18 -50 4.5
2001.3.20 -50 5
2001.1.31 -50 5.5
2001.1.3 -50 6
2000.5.16 50 6.5
2000.3.21 25 6
2000.2.2 25 5.75