In 2018, the trend of the New Third Board market has not yet reversed, and market confidence is seriously insufficient. Looking forward to the New Third Board in 2019, aroundMergerIncremental reform and IPO market, Essence Securities Zhuhai, Northeast Securities Fu Lichun, such as capital Zhang Aoping gave a point of view.
Regarding the A-share IPO market outlook, if the capital Zhang Aoping believes:
1. The enterprise IPO “Bangsai Lake” will completely disappear.
2. The number of IPO filing companies is expected to increase, and the number of over-representation and number of companies will be slightly increased.
3, the meeting companyNet profitThe minimum size will remain high.
4,New sharesWith the issuance of the "dual track system", the science and technology board will become the focus of construction.
Regarding the M&A market outlook, Anxin Securities Zhuhai believes that:
1. In 2019, from the perspective of the external environment, as the IPO review continued to be stricter, the company's board favored the large-capacity “hard technology” company, while the Hong Kong stock market fluctuated with the external market, and the new three board companies adopted the trend of mergers and acquisitions of listed companies. Will continue.
2. The “new economy”, segmentation areas, channel synergies, and new three-board enterprises with higher net profit will still be the key to being “phased” by listed companies.
3. Appropriate adoption of equity + cash acquisition methods by enterprises can meet the requirements of “small amount of rapid” or will greatly improve the efficiency of mergers and acquisitions. At the same time, it is necessary to pay attention to the weak overall market environment and the accumulation of “goodwill” problems of listed companies.
Regarding the prospect of incremental reform, Northeast Securities Fu Lichun believes that:
1. With the introduction of the Science and Technology Board, the New Third Board “takes the market stratification as the starting point, and promotes reforms in issues such as issuance, trading, information disclosure, and supervision,” and a series of policies such as the selection layer will come to the fore.
2. The selection layer refers to the exchange market, properly audits, publicly issues stocks, conducts continuous bidding transactions, raises the standards of letter-sharing, and strengthens supervision and management.
3. Lower the overall funding standard for the New Third Board investors, and the threshold for the selected investors' funds will be further reduced.
4. Promote public offeringsfundInstitutional funds enter the new three board market such as the selection layer.
IPO "Blood Lake" will completely fade
In 2018, the “Dafa Review Committee” reviewed a total of 185 start-up companies (Note: the number of audits was 199, and some companies reviewed it several times, counting the same). 111 companies passed the audit and the pass rate was about 60%. In these 185MeetingAmong the company, a total of 44 from the New Third Board (Note: the number of audits is 47, some companies have repeatedly reviewed, counted as the same), accounting for 23.78%; among the new three board companies in the meeting, there are 24 new three board companies With IPO adoption, the overall adoption rate of the three board companies is 54.55%.
At present, there are 73 IPO queue enterprises in the New Third Board enterprises, and 9 companies are in the state of being listed: Youyou Food, Yongguan Shares, Weipaig, Changjiang Materials, Yashi Optoelectronics, Huayang International, New Industry, Tailin Biological, Jinlang Technology.
In addition to the A-share IPO, the listing of new three-board companies in Hong Kong has also emerged. As of now, there are 23 companies related to the three-board market and the Hong Kong stock market. A "New Third Board + H Shares" company: Junshi Bio was officially listed on the Hong Kong stock market on December 24, 2018. One of the three board companies' Huizhou Technology has been listed on the Hong Kong stock market.
According to statistics, in the three-board market, 12 companies expressed their H-share listing intentions: Chengda Bio, Shengshi Dalian, China Kangfu, Shuo Shuo, New Vision, Jiushengtang, Selling Technology, Setters, Zesheng Technology, Shengyuan Technology, Love Cool Tour, Jin Kaili. Among the three companies that have been delisted, a total of 8 companies submitted their prospectuses: Huatu Education, Kuke Music, Yibang, New Oriental, Yongsheng Property, Narnia, Doumion Technology, and JD. In addition, New Oriental Online has passed the hearing. Unlisted company Fuhong Hanlin withdrew the application for listing on the third board and has issued a prospectus for the Hong Kong stocks.
According to statistics from research and research, a total of 205 companies completed IPOs in the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2018, of which 176 were in China, accounting for 85.85%, which exceeded the number of IPOs completed in the A-share market in 2018. It has become the main battlefield of the IPO of Chinese enterprises. Shanxi Securities believes that this year's "new three board + H" architecture enterprises will increase.
For the 2019 A-share market IPO outlook, if the capital Zhang Aoping believes that the enterprise IPO “compressed lake” will completely disappear, it is expected that the IPO queuing time will continue to be maintained between 0.5-1.5 years; the number of IPO filing enterprises is expected to increase, The number of meetings and the number of companies passing the meeting is expected to rebound slightly; the minimum size of the company's net profit will remain high; the new share issuance "double track system", the science and technology board will become the construction focus.
M&A boom will continue
In 2018, the listed company acquired the New Sanban Company and set off a “gold rush” fever.
Data show that in 2018, the New Third Board major assetsReorganizationThere were nearly 400 cases of M&A transactions; the acquisition of new three-board companies by listed companies continued to heat up, and there were 175 M&A cases throughout the year. Of these, 43 have been implemented.
From the perspective of the industry, the listed companies that initiated mergers and acquisitions mostly concentrated on software, environmental protection and automobile, and aimed at horizontal integration and industrial chain integration. In 2018, listed companies acquired new three-board companies with some new trends, such as the increase in the proportion of acquisitions, the holding-type acquisitions accounted for 65%, and the cash payment as the mainstream (the proportion of pure cash acquisitions was as high as 76%).
Looking forward to the M&A market in 2019, Anxin Securities Zhuhai believes that from the external environment, as the IPO review continues to be stricter, the company will favor large-capacity “hard technology” companies, and the Hong Kong stock market will fluctuate with the external market. It is conducive to the acquisition of new three board companies by listed companies. From the internal environment, the overall P/E ratio of the New Third Board market has dropped below 15X, and the long-term value has begun to appear. Some of the three-board companies that are on the high-quality track and have high profits are favored by listed companies, and under the tilt of the restructuring policy, 2019 The trend of the new three-board company through the merger of listed companies will continue.
The “new economy”, segmentation areas, channel synergies, and new three-board enterprises with higher net profit will still be the key to being “phased” by listed companies.
In 2018, the cases of listed companies acquiring new three-board enterprises were mostly horizontal integration and industrial chain integration. The companies acquired by the new three boards were concentrated in the emerging industry segment, reflecting the characteristics of the three-board market. (1) A-share companies tend to lay out “new economy” and profitable enterprises: for example, A-share Xinli Finance plans to acquire 100% equity of New Sanbanfu, and Xinhongtai plans to acquire Haigang Communication's emerging business sector; (2) Inter-integration M&A segment: In the case of A-shares, the company plans to acquire the new three-plate blue sports, expand the market share in the diving service and equipment market, improve the company's industrial chain and product line; (3) help listed companies to channel layout : Take Bangbao Puzzle 440 million cash to acquire 100% equity of Meiqilin as an example to increase market share and profitability.
Since the second half of 2018, the CSRC has issued a number of consecutiveMergers and acquisitionsGood policies, support for mergers and acquisitions, and increase efficiency. Listed companies usually prefer to acquire three-board companies in cash. The acquisition of new three-board companies is usually small, with an average purchase amount of around 400 million yuan.
In the choice of M&A payment methods, Zhuhai believes that under the stimulus of M&A policy, enterprises should adopt the equity + cash acquisition method to meet the requirements of “small quick” or greatly improve the efficiency of M&A. However, it is necessary to pay attention to the overall capital market environment in 2019, followed by the accumulation of “goodwill” problems of listed companies, which has increased the valuation pressure on the acquired companies.
Selected layers will be grounded
The 2018 New Third Board policy can be described as intensive: three categories are identified at the beginning of the year.shareholderIn the second quarter, the “3+H” and the service were small and medium-sized. In the third quarter, the transaction was exempted from taxation and the selection layer was promoted. In October, the capital market reform was promoted and the stocks were optimized. At the end of the year, the transaction was tax-free and a new index was released.
What can be seen is that the level of deepening reform of the New Third Board has been significantly improved and its intensity has been greatly enhanced. At the beginning of this year, the deputy general manager of the national share transfer system, Qiang Qiang pointed out that the key issues and work of the NEE reform are centered on the current issuance system, refined stratification, investor suitability management, market pricing mechanism and market financing. Several aspects are unfolding.
Looking forward to the incremental reform of the New Third Board, Northeast Securities Fu Lichun believes that it is expected that major incremental reforms in 2019 will make significant progress, and a series of policies such as the selection layer will come to an end. The new three boards will eventually be able to move out of the transition period and enter a new stage.
In the future, the New Third Board can introduce incremental reform policies in the following aspects: optimization of stratification, setting up a selection layer on the basis of innovation layer; selection layer refers to the exchange market, allowing selected companies to publicly issue shares and implement continuous bidding. Trading, at the same time, improve the standards of corporate philanthropy at the selected level, strengthen supervision and management; reduce the threshold for investors' funds, and the threshold for investors in select investors will be further reduced; and promote funds from public funds and other institutions to enter the new three-board market such as the selection layer.
Fu Lichun also said that after a series of major incremental reforms, the New Third Board ushered in historic opportunities: (1) The level of the New Third Board is basically complete, and the selected layer market develops the Beijing Stock Exchange. (2) The differentiation of the New Third Board has intensified, the overall consistency has been reduced, resources will be concentrated to fewer high-quality enterprises, and the survival of the fittest and concentration of investors and investment banks will be improved. (3) In the early stage, it may be sought after by a small number of selected companies, forming a hot market, but the sustainability is not strong. (4) The professionalism and risk control ability of market participants are higher, and the overall standardization needs to be improved.
Of course, while promoting the refined and stratified reform of the market, we should also vigorously increase the regulatory penalties, eliminate the inferior enterprises and potential risks through “sweeping”, and provide a solid foundation for further market reform. The core competencies of market participants' risk control should continue to strengthen.
(Article source: Rhinoceros Star)